Changes

Infrastructure deals are extremely complex and very high fee and would require Iran to convey title of the assets being “reconstructed” to the fund, which is na ga happen. It is hard to see how the US, which has done the Gulf States great harm with its Iran war caper, has the leverage to get them to agree to pony up most/all of $300 billion when they have their own rebuilding needs.

Infrastructure deals are extremely complex and very high fee and would require Iran to convey title of the assets being “reconstructed” to the fund, which is na ga happen. It is hard to see how the US, which has done the Gulf States great harm with its Iran war caper, has the leverage to get them to agree to pony up most/all of $300 billion when they have their own rebuilding needs.

So what does Iran do when the US fails to deliver on this commitment? The MOU already contemplates that Iran will regularize its control of the Strait of Hormuz and presumably charge fees after 60 days. We had said that Iran likely understands full well that the US cannot satisfy this requirement and might explicitly use this to '''impose fees at a level designed to realize $300 billion over time''' (as in use this explicitly with the Gulf States as an alternative to funding reconstruction). However, [[Robert Pape]] has argued that Iran will seek to maximize its power, and its highest value “ask” is for the US to withdraw forces across the region.}}

So what does Iran do when the US fails to deliver on this commitment? The MOU already contemplates that Iran will regularize its control of the Strait of Hormuz and presumably charge fees after 60 days. We had said that Iran likely understands full well that the US cannot satisfy this requirement and might explicitly use this to '''impose fees at a level designed to realize $300 billion over time''' (as in use this explicitly with the Gulf States as an alternative to funding reconstruction). However, [[Robert Pape]] has argued that Iran will seek to maximize its power, and its highest value “ask” is for the US to withdraw forces across the region. [https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/06/iran-war-trump-capitulates-in-deal-signed-thursday-commits-to-israel-withdrawal-from-lebanon-considerable-obstacles-remain-to-agreement-oil-cliff-in-play-increasing-iran-leverage.html]}}

Unlike [[Ukraine aid]], the Reconstruction fund is not envisioned to come directly out of the pockets of US taxpayers. Waivers in [[SWIFT]] network transactions to pay tolls, withdrawal of [[economic sanctions]], etc. are pledged. If the US needs to pony up any cash, it is offset by closure of US bases in the region, and adds nothing to the [[deficit]].

Unlike [[Ukraine aid]], the Reconstruction fund is not envisioned to come directly out of the pockets of US taxpayers. Waivers in [[SWIFT]] network transactions to pay tolls, withdrawal of [[economic sanctions]], etc. are pledged. If the US needs to pony up any cash, it is offset by closure of US bases in the region, and adds nothing to the [[deficit]].

Secondly, the denial of [[justice]] for the murder of the Iranian [[head of state]], school children, [[civilian]] [[infrastructure]], etc etc etc in a [[war of aggression]] is not a "[[conservative value]]". [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]^{[[User talk:RobSmith|WWJD? Would he claim 2 gay bathhouses in Russia compared to 300 in America justifies nuclear war?]]} 11:32, June 19, 2026 (EDT)

Secondly, the denial of [[justice]] for the murder of the Iranian [[head of state]], school children, [[civilian]] [[infrastructure]], etc etc etc in a [[war of aggression]] is not a "[[conservative value]]". [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]^{[[User talk:RobSmith|WWJD? Would he claim 2 gay bathhouses in Russia compared to 300 in America justifies nuclear war?]]} 11:32, June 19, 2026 (EDT)