Changes

The '''2026 midterm elections''', held on November 3, 2026 but with primaries beginning on March 3, and [[early voting]] throughout October, will decide which political party controls [[Congress]] beginning January 2027, for the second half of the [[Trump 2.0]] administration.  Typically, the party not in the [[White House]], in this case the [[Democrat Party]], gains seats in the midterm election.

The '''2026 midterm elections''', held on November 3, 2026, but with primaries beginning on March 3 and [[early voting]] throughout October, will decide which political party controls [[Congress]] beginning January 2027 for the second half of the [[Trump 2.0]] administration.  Typically, the party not in the [[White House]], in this case the [[Democrat Party]], gains seats in the midterm election.

As [[GOP]] leadership in [[Washington, D.C.|D.C]] loses touch with the [[grassroots]] and particularly [[Gen Z]], '''[[Dem]]s are expected to win the [[House]] and a narrow majority in the [[Senate]] by taking [[GOP]] seats in [[Maine]], [[North Carolina]], and [[Alaska]], and one-out-of-five in [[Ohio]], [[Texas]], [[Iowa]], [[Kansas]], and/or [[Nebraska]]'''. The [[Cook Political Report]] rates all four of these Senate races as toss-ups, despite how [[Republican]]s currently hold all four of these seats.<ref>https://www.cookpolitical.com/races</ref>  

As [[GOP]] leadership in [[Washington, D.C.|D.C]] loses touch with the [[grassroots]] and particularly [[Gen Z]], '''[[Dem]]s are expected to win the [[House]] and a narrow majority in the [[Senate]] by taking [[GOP]] seats in [[Maine]], [[North Carolina]], and [[Alaska]], and one out of five in [[Ohio]], [[Texas]], [[Iowa]], [[Kansas]], and/or [[Nebraska]]'''. The [[Cook Political Report]] rates all four of these Senate races as toss-ups, despite how [[Republican]]s currently hold all four of these seats.<ref>https://www.cookpolitical.com/races</ref>  

There is [[grassroots]] outrage against [[data center]]s supported by [[GOP]] leadership, particularly in several of these pivotal states.<ref>[https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/we-just-need-to-step-on-the-gas-ramaswamy-tells-ohio-chamber-forum/ITLSY6FIJ5HBHCHVGEVXNVOG6Y/#:~:text=Electricity%20costs%20generally%20are%20about%2050%25%20higher,of%20baseload%20coal%20and%20gas%2Dfired%20power%20sources (Ramaswamy's statement on data centers)].</ref> [[Gen Z]] is the swing voting bloc for this election, and it is struggling economically with [[inflation]], poor job prospects, and unaffordable health insurance and college expenses. Gen Z is strongly against fighting in foreign wars, and is dismayed at the outsized influence of [[oligarch]]s. [[Socialist]]s have done particularly well with this voting bloc in [[Democrat]] primaries, attaining remarkable upsets of entrenched incumbents often by wide margins.

There is [[grassroots]] outrage against [[data center]]s supported by [[GOP]] leadership, particularly in several of these pivotal states.<ref>[https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/we-just-need-to-step-on-the-gas-ramaswamy-tells-ohio-chamber-forum/ITLSY6FIJ5HBHCHVGEVXNVOG6Y/#:~:text=Electricity%20costs%20generally%20are%20about%2050%25%20higher,of%20baseload%20coal%20and%20gas%2Dfired%20power%20sources (Ramaswamy's statement on data centers)].</ref> [[Gen Z]] is the swing voting bloc for this election, and it is struggling economically with [[inflation]], poor job prospects, and unaffordable health insurance and college expenses. Gen Z is strongly against fighting in foreign wars, and is dismayed at the outsized influence of [[oligarch]]s. [[Socialist]]s have done particularly well with this voting bloc in [[Democrat]] primaries, attaining remarkable upsets of entrenched incumbents, often by wide margins.

== Senate ==

== Senate ==

Going into the election, the [[GOP]] has a 53-47 advantage, plus the tie-breaking vote of [[Vice President]] [[JD Vance]] as may be needed.  

Going into the election, the [[GOP]] has a 53-47 advantage, plus the tie-breaking vote of [[Vice President]] [[JD Vance]] as may be needed.  

Sen. [[Susan Collins]] (R-ME) is the only [[Republican]] up for reelection in a state won by [[Kamala Harris]] in 2024, and Collins is considered in jeopardy of losing.<ref>https://www.aol.com/susan-collins-election-prospects-dim-160103422.html</ref>

Sen. [[Susan Collins]] (R-ME) is the only [[Republican]] up for reelection in a state won by [[Kamala Harris]] in 2024, and Collins is considered in jeopardy of losing .<ref>https://www.aol.com/susan-collins-election-prospects-dim-160103422.html</ref>

Sen. [[Thom Tillis]] (R-NC) has declined to run for reelection in the [[swing state]] of [[North Carolina]] to avoid a likely defeat.  Trump won this state by 50.9% to 47.7%.

Sen. [[Thom Tillis]] (R-NC) has declined to run for reelection in the [[swing state]] of [[North Carolina]] to avoid a likely defeat.  Trump won this state by 50.9% to 47.7%.

In [[Alaska]] and [[Ohio]], the [[Democrat]] candidate has a slight polling advantage in early July, four months prior to the election.  Winning both of these races would likely give the Democrats control of the [[U.S. Senate]].

In [[Alaska]] and [[Ohio]], the [[Democrat]] candidate has a slight polling advantage in early July, four months prior to the election.  Winning both of these races would likely give the Democrats control of the [[U.S. Senate]].

In Texas incumbent Senator [[John Cornyn]] was defeated in a primary runoff by Texas Attorney General [[Ken Paxton]].  Early polls have Paxton in a tight race with Democrat [[James Talarico]].  A [[Libertarian Party]] candidate, Ted Brown, is also running; polls have him between 1-4% of the vote.  Talarico's chances of flipping the seat blue depend on whether Cornyn's voters decide to vote for Paxton, vote for Talarico or Brown, or sit the race out.

In Texas, incumbent Senator [[John Cornyn]] was defeated in a primary runoff by Texas Attorney General [[Ken Paxton]].  Early polls have Paxton in a tight race with Democrat [[James Talarico]].  A [[Libertarian Party]] candidate, Ted Brown, is also running; polls have him between 1-4% of the vote.  Talarico's chances of flipping the seat blue depend on whether Cornyn's voters decide to vote for Paxton, vote for Talarico or Brown, or sit the race out.

== House ==

== House ==

Several states - both Democrat and Republican - have engaged in mid-term redistricting efforts to create more districts for the dominant party in that state.

Several states - both Democrat and Republican - have engaged in midterm redistricting efforts to create more districts for the dominant party in that state.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA1) represents a swing district that voted for Harris in 2024.  Rep. Fitzpatrick was one of only 2 [[Republican]] "No" votes on the [[OBBB]] in early July 2025.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA1) represents a swing district that voted for Harris in 2024.  Rep. Fitzpatrick was one of only two [[Republican]] "No" votes on the [[OBBB]] in early July 2025.

Maureen Galindo, a [[Democrat]] candidate in the 35th Congressional District of [[Texas]], said in a post that she’ll turn "Karnes ICE ([[Immigration and Customs Enforcement]]) Detention Center into a [[prison]] for [[American]] [[Zionist]]s and former [[ICE]] officers for human trafficking. (It will also be a [[castration]] processing center for [[pedophile]]s which will probably be most of the Zionists).”<ref>https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/05/20/dem-candidate-calls-for-prison-and-castration-for-zionists/</ref>  However, Galindo was defeated in the primary runoff.

Maureen Galindo, a [[Democrat]] candidate in the 35th Congressional District of [[Texas]], said in a post that she’ll turn "Karnes ICE ([[Immigration and Customs Enforcement]]) Detention Center into a [[prison]] for [[American]] [[Zionist]]s and former [[ICE]] officers for human trafficking. (It will also be a [[castration]] processing center for [[pedophile]]s which will probably be most of the Zionists).”<ref>https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/05/20/dem-candidate-calls-for-prison-and-castration-for-zionists/</ref>  However, Galindo was defeated in the primary runoff.