2026 midterm elections
The 2026 midterm elections, held on November 3, 2026 but with primaries beginning on March 3, and early voting throughout October, will decide which political party controls Congress beginning January 2027, for the second half of the Trump 2.0 administration. Typically, the party not in the White House, in this case the Democrat Party, gains seats in the midterm election.
The GOP is expected to hold onto control of the U.S. Senate, but Dems are hopeful of taking control of the House. Dems could win the Senate, too, if they take the GOP seats in Maine and North Carolina, which seem likely, and pull upsets in Ohio and Texas, which is possible based in part on outrage against data centers supported by GOP leadership in those states[1], and in Texas due to an unusually competitive primary race between incumbent Senator John Cornyn facing challenges from two vulnerable challengers: US Representative Wesley Hunt (known for his frequent failure to show up to vote on critical issues) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (known for his numerous ethical issues, both political and personal).
Senate
Going into the election, the GOP has a 53-47 advantage, plus the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance as may be needed.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is the only Republican up for reelection in a state won by Kamala Harris in 2024, and Collins is considered in jeopardy of losing.[2]
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has declined to run for reelection in the swing state of North Carolina to avoid a likely defeat. Trump won this state by 50.9% to 47.7%.
The widely cited Cook Political Report stated as of October 2025 that there are only 4 tossup seats, 2 held by Dems (Georgia and Michigan) and 2 held by Republicans (Maine and North Carolina).[3]
House
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA1) represents a swing district that voted for Harris in 2024. Rep. Fitzpatrick was one of only 2 Republican "No" votes on the OBBB in early July 2025.
