The 2026 midterm elections, held on November 3, 2026 but with primaries beginning on March 3, and early voting throughout October, will decide which political party controls Congress beginning January 2027, for the second half of the Trump 2.0 administration. Typically, the party not in the White House, in this case the Democrat Party, gains seats in the midterm election.
As GOP leadership in D.C loses touch with the grassroots and particularly Gen Z, Dems are expected to win the House and a narrow majority in the Senate by taking GOP seats in Maine, North Carolina, and Alaska, and one-out-of-five in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, and/or Nebraska. The Cook Political Report rates all four of these Senate races as toss-ups, despite how Republicans currently hold all four of these seats.[1]
There is grassroots outrage against data centers supported by GOP leadership, particularly in several of these pivotal states.[2] Gen Z is the swing voting bloc for this election, and it is struggling economically with inflation, poor job prospects, and unaffordable health insurance and college expenses. Gen Z is strongly against fighting in foreign wars, and is dismayed at the outsized influence of oligarchs. Socialists have done particularly well with this voting bloc in Democrat primaries, attaining remarkable upsets of entrenched incumbents often by wide margins.
Senate
Going into the election, the GOP has a 53-47 advantage, plus the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance as may be needed.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is the only Republican up for reelection in a state won by Kamala Harris in 2024, and Collins is considered in jeopardy of losing.[3]
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has declined to run for reelection in the swing state of North Carolina to avoid a likely defeat. Trump won this state by 50.9% to 47.7%.
In Alaska and Ohio, the Democrat candidate has a slight polling advantage in early July, four months prior to the election. Winning both of these races would likely give the Democrats control of the U.S. Senate.
In Texas incumbent Senator John Cornyn was defeated in a primary runoff by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Early polls have Paxton in a tight race with Democrat James Talarico. A Libertarian Party candidate, Ted Brown, is also running; polls have him between 1-4% of the vote. Talarico's chances of flipping the seat blue depend on whether Cornyn's voters decide to vote for Paxton, vote for Talarico or Brown, or sit the race out.
House
Several states - both Democrat and Republican - have engaged in mid-term redistricting efforts to create more districts for the dominant party in that state.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA1) represents a swing district that voted for Harris in 2024. Rep. Fitzpatrick was one of only 2 Republican "No" votes on the OBBB in early July 2025.
Maureen Galindo, a Democrat candidate in the 35th Congressional District of Texas, said in a post that she’ll turn "Karnes ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) Detention Center into a prison for American Zionists and former ICE officers for human trafficking. (It will also be a castration processing center for pedophiles which will probably be most of the Zionists).”[4] However, Galindo was defeated in the primary runoff.