2010 Midterm Elections

In the 2010 Midterm Elections, the nation will elect the 112th Congress, including all members of the House and one third of the Senate, together with a majority of governorships and many state and local offices.

After the Democratic Party successes in the 2006 off-year election (when they recaptured Congress), augmented by more gains in the Presidential Election of 2008, the question is whether the Democrats will hold their gains or slip back. Since the Democrats have an advantage of 257-178 in the House, the GOP must gain 40 seats to recapture control. Since the Democrats control the Senate 60-40 (counting two independents and the vacant Massachusetts seat), the GOP needs to gain 11 seats in the Senate to retake control; but even a one-seat gain would allow the GOP to filibuster obnoxious bills, for 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster.

Forecasts

Election forecasters in September 2009 were revising their predictions downward for the Democrats, as Obama's popularity continues to plunge. From April to August, Obama lost 10 points across the board--suffering losses in every group except blacks, who remain loyal to him. The popularity of Congress remains low. Fewer people are calling themselves Democrats. The Republican party, however, suffers from a lack of leaders and its own poor reputation in voter esteem.

"No question, August proved cathartic for voters and chaotic for congressional Democrats. But way before the town hall meetings during recess, there were ample signs for Democrats to fear for their careers in 2010," concluded Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman, who predicts the Democrats will lose 20 seats in the House, but retain control. Wasserman concludes that a major shift has been underway among "angry white seniors" (over age 60), who strongly dislike the Obama health care proposals because they fear they will lose benefits they now have.

Analyst Stuart Rothenberg is now reporting, "Growing public concern about spending, taxes and the size of government has started to shift the national landscape away from the Democrats to a more neutral position, and quite possibly toward the GOP."

Notable House Races

The following House races are expected to be the most competitive by non-partison political analysis.

Alabama

• Bobby Bright (D) of Alabama's 2nd congressional district:

Freshman Democrat Bobby Bright was elected by a narrow 50%-49% margin. In contrast Republican John McCain defeated Democrat Barack Obama 63%-36% in the 2nd district in the 2008 Presidential Election. A factor working against Bright is that with out Barack Obama on the ballot, there will not be as heavy African American turnout (the 2nd district is 30% black) as there was in 2008. Bobby Bright has bucked his liberal leadership on almost every issue, which may make it difficult for Republicans to compare him with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Republicans are trying to recruit Montgomery city councilwoman Martha Roby to run. Congressman Bright has already raised $440,000 in preparation for a tough reelection campaign.

• Mike Rogers (R) of Alabama’s 3rd congressional district:

Four-term Congressman Mike Rogers was reelected in 2008 by 7 percentage points, down from 21 points in 2006. However, the race in 2010 leans Republican. It has a strong base of social conservatives, and McCain defeated Obama in the district with 56 percent of the vote. Democrat Joshua Segall may seek a rematch.

• Parker Griffith (D) of Alabama’s 5th congressional district:

Parker Griffith was elected to the House of Representatives with 51 percent of the vote in 2008, while John McCain received 61 percent. Businessman Les Phillip and Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks have announced they will seek the Republican nomination in 2010.

Alaska

• Don Young (R) of Alaska’s at-large district:

36-year House veteran Don Young has faced recent ethic charges and won a close 51%-45% victory in 2008, and may be a target from Democrats in 2010. However, no prominent Democrats have showed any interest in running. Former governor Sarah Palin is a long-shot primary challenger.

Arizona

• Ann Kirkpatrick (D) of Arizona’s 1st congressional district:

Freshman Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick represents the Republican-leaning 1st district of Arizona. Possible Republican candidates include State Representative Bill Konopnicki and Flagstaff dentist Paul Gosar.

• John Shadegg (R) of Arizona’s 3rd district:

Eight-term Republican John Shadegg flirted with the idea of retirement in 2008, however would go to be reelected with 54% of the vote. Furthermore, he has announced his candidacy for reelection in 2010. Democrats hope to make the race competive, although the district easily went Republican in the 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential elections. CQ politics rates the race “Republican favored.”

• Harry Mitchell (D) of Arizona's 5th congressional district:

Elected in 2006, Congressman Harry Mitchell will be one of national Republicans top targets in 2010. Although Mitchell was successful in increasing his winning margin from 4 points in 2006 to 10 points in 2008. Several Republicans have announced interest in running, including State Representative David Schweikert, former State Rep. Susan Bitter Smith, and Venture capitalist Jim Ward. The 5th district mostly represents suburban Phoenix, and gave John McCain a 52%-47% victory in the presidential election.

California

• Dan Lungren (R) of California's 3rd congressional district:

Democrats are encouraged that Congressman Lungren's seat may become competitive after his margin of victory shrank from 22 percentage points in 2006 to 5 points in 2008. However, Congressman Lungren's name recognition (he served two terms as state Attorney General) and his fundraising lead makes him the favorite. Announced Democrat candidates include city councilman Gary Davis, director of the Sacramento Munipical Utility Bill Slaton, and physician Ami Bera. Barack Obama won the district by a 49%-48% margin.

• Jerry McNerney (D) of California's 11th congressional district:

Congressman McNerney won two fairly comfortable victories in 2006 and 2008. Although CQ politics ranks the 11th district as having a 1-point Republican advantage. Businessmen Brad Goehring and Jon Del Arroz are preparing to run against McNerney.

• David Dreier (R) of California's 26th congressional district:

National Democrats may target powerfull House Republican David Dreier (ranking member of the Rules Committee) after Barack Obama won the 26th district by 4 percentage points in 2008, although that same year Congressman Dreier was reelected by a comfortable 13 points. Magazine company owner Russ Warner, who lost to Dreier in 2008, is seeking a rematch.

• Ken Calvert (R) of California's 44th congressional district:

Nine-term Congressman Ken Calvert was reelected with 51% of the vote in 2008, the first time he had any series competition. In 2010, Commercial real estate broker Chris Riggs will challenge Calvert in a Republican primary, and Rialto Education Association President Bill Hedrick has announced his candidacy as a Democrat.

• Mary Bono Mack (R) of California's 45th congressional district:

Moderate Republican Mary Bono Mack, representing a swing district may face a tough reelection in 2010. Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougnet, who is openly gay, will seek the Democratic nomination.

*Loretta Sanchez (D) of California's 47th congressional district:

"Blue Dog" Loretta Sanchez comes from a heavly Democratic district (although they narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004). State Assemblyman Van Tran, a Vietnamese-American who has announced his candidacy, could appeal to the significant percentage of Asian-Americans in the district, and is a formidable Republican oppenent.

• John Campbell (R) of California's 48th congressional district:

Republican John Campbell, easily elected to three terms in Congress, may be a target from Democrats after Barack Obama won the 48th district 49%-48%. However, it remains a Republican stronghold and Campbell is favored to win reelection. Democrat City Councilwoman Beth Krom is preparing for a campaign.

• Brian Bilbray (R) of California's 50th congressional district:

Three-term Congressman Brian Bilbray, a pro-choice moderate Republican who represents a San Diego-area district, was reelected by 5 percentage points in 2008. Democrats have recruited Dave Roberts, a city councilman with military experience to run. Other possible candidates include attorney Tracy Emblem and ex-prosecuter Nick Leibham. Given the 50th districts conservative-leanings, CQ Politics have ranked the race "Republican Favored."

Colorado

• Betsy Markey (D) of Colorado's 4th congressional district:

Betsy Markey, elected by an impressive 56%-44% margin in 2008, but comes from a Republican-leaning district and could face a tough reelection in 2010. Several Republicans have expressed interest in running, including Colorado House Minority Whip Cory Gardner, Tom Lucero from the University of Colorado, and city councilman Diggs Brown. Markey has raised $609,000 in what is expected to be a competitive race.

Connecticut

Jim Himes (D) of Connecticut's 4th congressional district:

In 2008 Jim Himes ousted liberal Republican Christopher Shays by a 51%-48% margin. Although Republicans may target his seat in 2010, they have had difficulty recruiting a formidable opponent. state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney has announced he will not run.

Delaware

• Michael Castle (R) of Delaware's at-large district:

Eight term Congressman Michael Castle has held statewide office in Delaware for 30 years and would be favored to win reelection if he runs again in 2010. However, Castle has stated he is considering running for the United States Senate, or may even retire. Democrats hope to gain this seat, former lieutenant governor John Carney, who unsuccessfully sought the Democrat nomination for governor in 2008, has announced his candidacy.

Idaho

• Walt Minnick (D) of Idaho's 1st congressional district:

Minnick is a Democratic Representative from a conservative leaning district. He was elected in 2008 with 51% of the vote, compared to 62% that John McCain received. Republicans have already tied Minnick to unpopular House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrat controlled Congress. Former Marine Corps Major Vaughn Ward has already announced his candidacy. Other potential Republicans include Idaho House Majority Leader Ken Roberts, State Representative Raul Labrador and Attorney General Lawrence Wasden.

Louisiana

• Joseph Cao (R) of Louisiana's 2nd congressional district:

Republican Joseph Cao (pronounced Gow) defeated nine-term Democrat Congressman William J. Jefferson in a 2008 runoff election by a 49%-47% margin, after Jefferson had been indicted on federal charges of bribery and other corrupt acts. The district covers almost all of urban New Orleans and was ranked of having a 25 point advantage for Democrats by the Cook Partison Voting Index. State Rep. Cedric Richmond has announced his candidacy. When asked about his reelection, Cao said that political experts were proved wrong in 2008 and "I'm sure we'll prove them wrong again."

Maryland

• Frank Kratovil (D) of Maryland's 1st congressional district:

Frank Kratovil was elected in Maryland's strongly conservative 1st district by less than 1 percentage point in 2008, representing much of eastern Maryland. This may be one of the Democrats most difficult seats to hold. John McCain won the 1st district by 18 percentage points, while Barack Obama won statewide by 25 points. State Senator Andy Harris is expected to seek a rematch in 2010, and has raised $210,000 for a potential campaign. State Senator E.J. Pipkin may also run.

Washington

• Dave Reichert (R) of Washington's 8th congressional district:

Three-term Congressman Dave Reichert won two close victories in 2006 and 2008 against Democrat Darcy Burner. After Barack Obama won the congressional district by 14 percentage points in 2008, Democrats are hoping to make the race competitive by recruiting businesswoman Suzan DelBene.

Senate

CQ predictions, Sept. 2009

The top Senate races are:

• 1 Connecticut (Incumbent=Dem, running for reeledction)
• 2 New Hampshire Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 3 Missouri Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 4 Kentucky Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 5 Pennsylvania (incumbent=Dem running for reelection)
• 6 Ohio Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 7 Colorado (incumbent=Dem, running for reelection)
• 8 Illinois Open (incumbent = Dem)
• 9 Louisiana (incumbent=Rep, running for reelection)
• 10 Delaware Open (incumbent = Dem)

Governors

The top races for governorships, and the parties now in power, are:

for November, 2009:

• Virginia open seat (incumbent Democrat is not running)
• N.J. incumbent Democrat is running

In both states the Republicans in early September had a lead of 5% to 10% in polls.

for 2010:

• 1 Kansas incumbent=Democrat
• 2 R.I. incumbent=Republican
• 3 Hawaii incumbent=Republican
• 4 Nevada incumbent=Republican
• 5 Tennessee incumbent=Democrat
• 6 Michigan incumbent=Democrat
• 7 Oklahoma incumbent=Democrat
• 8 Florida incumbent=Republican, not running
• 9 N.Y. incumbent=Democrat