Difference between revisions of "Economic Cycle Research Institute"
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| − | '''Economic Cycle Research Institute''' (ECRI) is a leading expert on business cycles. ECRI has a history of taking a conservative approach relative to its forecasts rather than engage in speculation. For example, in 2010 when many forecasters were declaring that the United States was about to go into a recession, ECRI did not concur with them.[http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/ecri-calls-recession-based-on-contagion.html] | + | '''Economic Cycle Research Institute''' (ECRI) is a leading expert on business cycles. The ECRI has a history of taking a conservative approach relative to its forecasts rather than engage in speculation. For example, in 2010 when many forecasters were declaring that the United States was about to go into a recession, the ECRI did not concur with them.[http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/ecri-calls-recession-based-on-contagion.html] |
== Commentary on their economic forecasting record == | == Commentary on their economic forecasting record == | ||
Revision as of 09:11, October 1, 2011
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is a leading expert on business cycles. The ECRI has a history of taking a conservative approach relative to its forecasts rather than engage in speculation. For example, in 2010 when many forecasters were declaring that the United States was about to go into a recession, the ECRI did not concur with them.[1]
Commentary on their economic forecasting record
The Economist magazine noted in 2005, “ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.”[2]
The International Monetary Fund wrote: “ECRI ‘has actually had a very stellar record’ in forecasting recessions.”[3]
Notable blemish in their economic forecasting track record
The ECRI missed calling the recession that began in 2007, as well as the strength of it.[4]