Difference between revisions of "User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds"
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| Line 2: | Line 2: | ||
|- | |- | ||
! Candidate | ! Candidate | ||
| − | ! Probability at 11 | + | ! Probability at 11 Dec 2011 |
| − | ! Probability at 17 | + | ! Probability at 17 Dec 2011 |
| − | ! Probability at 26 | + | ! Probability at 26 Dec 2011 |
| − | ! Probability at 1 | + | ! Probability at 1 Jan 2012 |
| − | ! Probability at 5 | + | ! Probability at 5 Jan 2012 |
| + | ! Probability at 11 Jan 2012 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Newt Gingrich | | Newt Gingrich | ||
| Line 14: | Line 15: | ||
| 5.0% | | 5.0% | ||
| 2.9% | | 2.9% | ||
| + | | 2.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Mitt Romney | | Mitt Romney | ||
| Line 21: | Line 23: | ||
| 34.2% | | 34.2% | ||
| 33.2% | | 33.2% | ||
| + | | 34.1% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Ron Paul | | Ron Paul | ||
| Line 28: | Line 31: | ||
| 5.0% | | 5.0% | ||
| 3.7% | | 3.7% | ||
| + | | 3.4% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Jon Huntsman | | Jon Huntsman | ||
| Line 35: | Line 39: | ||
| 2.1% | | 2.1% | ||
| 1.9% | | 1.9% | ||
| + | | 1.2% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Rick Perry | | Rick Perry | ||
| Line 42: | Line 47: | ||
| 1.3% | | 1.3% | ||
| 1.2% | | 1.2% | ||
| + | | 0.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Michele Bachmann | | Michele Bachmann | ||
| Line 48: | Line 54: | ||
| 1.0% | | 1.0% | ||
| 1.1% | | 1.1% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 56: | Line 63: | ||
| 1.7% | | 1.7% | ||
| 4.1% | | 4.1% | ||
| + | | 3.0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Rudy Giuliani | | Rudy Giuliani | ||
| 0.3% | | 0.3% | ||
| 0.3% | | 0.3% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| Line 70: | Line 79: | ||
| '''50.3%''' | | '''50.3%''' | ||
| '''47.0%''' | | '''47.0%''' | ||
| + | | '''45.1%''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Barack Obama | | Barack Obama | ||
| Line 77: | Line 87: | ||
| 47.5% | | 47.5% | ||
| 50.5% | | 50.5% | ||
| + | | 52.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Hilary Clinton | | Hilary Clinton | ||
| Line 84: | Line 95: | ||
| 1.7% | | 1.7% | ||
| 2.1% | | 2.1% | ||
| + | | 1.8% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Joe Biden | | Joe Biden | ||
| Line 90: | Line 102: | ||
| 0.6% | | 0.6% | ||
| 0.6% | | 0.6% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 98: | Line 111: | ||
| '''49.7%''' | | '''49.7%''' | ||
| '''52.6%''' | | '''52.6%''' | ||
| + | | '''54.5%''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Gary Johnson | | Gary Johnson | ||
| Line 104: | Line 118: | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| + | | 0.4% | ||
| 0.4% | | 0.4% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 111: | Line 126: | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| + | | '''0.4%''' | ||
| '''0.4%''' | | '''0.4%''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
(Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes]) | (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes]) | ||
Revision as of 13:03, January 11, 2012
| Candidate | Probability at 11 Dec 2011 | Probability at 17 Dec 2011 | Probability at 26 Dec 2011 | Probability at 1 Jan 2012 | Probability at 5 Jan 2012 | Probability at 11 Jan 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newt Gingrich | 20.5% | 18.2% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| Mitt Romney | 20.5% | 20.4% | 28.0% | 34.2% | 33.2% | 34.1% |
| Ron Paul | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| Jon Huntsman | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Rick Perry | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Michele Bachmann | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Santorum | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% |
| Rudy Giuliani | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Republican Total | 53.0% | 50.6% | 49.3% | 50.3% | 47.0% | 45.1% |
| Barack Obama | 44.8% | 47.3% | 48.5% | 47.5% | 50.5% | 52.7% |
| Hilary Clinton | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Joe Biden | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Democrat Total | 47.0% | 49.4% | 50.7% | 49.7% | 52.6% | 54.5% |
| Gary Johnson | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||||
| Independent Total | 0.4% | 0.4% |
(Source: William Hill, Ladbrokes)