Difference between revisions of "User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds"
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| Line 8: | Line 8: | ||
! Probability at 5 Jan 2012 | ! Probability at 5 Jan 2012 | ||
! Probability at 11 Jan 2012 | ! Probability at 11 Jan 2012 | ||
| + | ! Probability at 18 Jan 2012 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Newt Gingrich | | Newt Gingrich | ||
| Line 16: | Line 17: | ||
| 2.9% | | 2.9% | ||
| 2.7% | | 2.7% | ||
| + | | 2.4% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Mitt Romney | | Mitt Romney | ||
| Line 24: | Line 26: | ||
| 33.2% | | 33.2% | ||
| 34.1% | | 34.1% | ||
| + | | 36.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Ron Paul | | Ron Paul | ||
| Line 32: | Line 35: | ||
| 3.7% | | 3.7% | ||
| 3.4% | | 3.4% | ||
| + | | 3.2% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Jon Huntsman | | Jon Huntsman | ||
| Line 40: | Line 44: | ||
| 1.9% | | 1.9% | ||
| 1.2% | | 1.2% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Rick Perry | | Rick Perry | ||
| Line 47: | Line 52: | ||
| 1.3% | | 1.3% | ||
| 1.2% | | 1.2% | ||
| + | | 0.7% | ||
| 0.7% | | 0.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 54: | Line 60: | ||
| 1.0% | | 1.0% | ||
| 1.1% | | 1.1% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| Line 64: | Line 71: | ||
| 4.1% | | 4.1% | ||
| 3.0% | | 3.0% | ||
| + | | 2.1% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Rudy Giuliani | | Rudy Giuliani | ||
| 0.3% | | 0.3% | ||
| 0.3% | | 0.3% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| Line 79: | Line 88: | ||
| '''50.3%''' | | '''50.3%''' | ||
| '''47.0%''' | | '''47.0%''' | ||
| + | | '''45.1%''' | ||
| '''45.1%''' | | '''45.1%''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 87: | Line 97: | ||
| 47.5% | | 47.5% | ||
| 50.5% | | 50.5% | ||
| + | | 52.7% | ||
| 52.7% | | 52.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 95: | Line 106: | ||
| 1.7% | | 1.7% | ||
| 2.1% | | 2.1% | ||
| + | | 1.8% | ||
| 1.8% | | 1.8% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 102: | Line 114: | ||
| 0.6% | | 0.6% | ||
| 0.6% | | 0.6% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| Line 111: | Line 124: | ||
| '''49.7%''' | | '''49.7%''' | ||
| '''52.6%''' | | '''52.6%''' | ||
| + | | '''54.5%''' | ||
| '''54.5%''' | | '''54.5%''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 118: | Line 132: | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| + | | 0.4% | ||
| 0.4% | | 0.4% | ||
| 0.4% | | 0.4% | ||
| Line 126: | Line 141: | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| + | | '''0.4%''' | ||
| '''0.4%''' | | '''0.4%''' | ||
| '''0.4%''' | | '''0.4%''' | ||
Revision as of 10:25, January 18, 2012
| Candidate | Probability at 11 Dec 2011 | Probability at 17 Dec 2011 | Probability at 26 Dec 2011 | Probability at 1 Jan 2012 | Probability at 5 Jan 2012 | Probability at 11 Jan 2012 | Probability at 18 Jan 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newt Gingrich | 20.5% | 18.2% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| Mitt Romney | 20.5% | 20.4% | 28.0% | 34.2% | 33.2% | 34.1% | 36.7% |
| Ron Paul | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Jon Huntsman | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Rick Perry | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Michele Bachmann | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Santorum | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| Rudy Giuliani | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Republican Total | 53.0% | 50.6% | 49.3% | 50.3% | 47.0% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| Barack Obama | 44.8% | 47.3% | 48.5% | 47.5% | 50.5% | 52.7% | 52.7% |
| Hilary Clinton | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Joe Biden | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Democrat Total | 47.0% | 49.4% | 50.7% | 49.7% | 52.6% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| Gary Johnson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||||
| Independent Total | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
(Source: William Hill, Ladbrokes)