Difference between revisions of "User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds"

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Line 2: Line 2:
 
|-
 
|-
 
! Candidate
 
! Candidate
! Probability at 11 Dec 2011
+
! 11 Dec 2011
! Probability at 17 Dec 2011
+
! 17 Dec 2011
! Probability at 26 Dec 2011
+
! 26 Dec 2011
! Probability at 1 Jan 2012
+
! 1 Jan 2012
! Probability at 5 Jan 2012
+
! 5 Jan 2012
! Probability at 11 Jan 2012
+
! 11 Jan 2012
! Probability at 18 Jan 2012
+
! 18 Jan 2012
 +
! 23 Jan 2012
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Newt Gingrich
 
| Newt Gingrich
Line 18: Line 19:
 
| 2.7%
 
| 2.7%
 
| 2.4%
 
| 2.4%
 +
| 10.1%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Mitt Romney
 
| Mitt Romney
Line 27: Line 29:
 
| 34.1%
 
| 34.1%
 
| 36.7%
 
| 36.7%
 +
| 30.3%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Ron Paul
 
| Ron Paul
Line 36: Line 39:
 
| 3.4%
 
| 3.4%
 
| 3.2%
 
| 3.2%
 +
| 3.1%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Jon Huntsman
 
| Jon Huntsman
Line 44: Line 48:
 
| 1.9%
 
| 1.9%
 
| 1.2%
 
| 1.2%
 +
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
|-
 
|-
Line 54: Line 59:
 
| 0.7%
 
| 0.7%
 
| 0.7%
 
| 0.7%
 +
| 0.0%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Michele Bachmann
 
| Michele Bachmann
Line 60: Line 66:
 
| 1.0%
 
| 1.0%
 
| 1.1%
 
| 1.1%
 +
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
Line 72: Line 79:
 
| 3.0%
 
| 3.0%
 
| 2.1%
 
| 2.1%
 +
| 1.4%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Rudy Giuliani
 
| Rudy Giuliani
 
| 0.3%
 
| 0.3%
 
| 0.3%
 
| 0.3%
 +
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
Line 90: Line 99:
 
| '''45.1%'''
 
| '''45.1%'''
 
| '''45.1%'''
 
| '''45.1%'''
 +
| '''44.9%'''
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Barack Obama
 
| Barack Obama
Line 99: Line 109:
 
| 52.7%
 
| 52.7%
 
| 52.7%
 
| 52.7%
 +
| 52.9%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Hilary Clinton
 
| Hilary Clinton
Line 106: Line 117:
 
| 1.7%
 
| 1.7%
 
| 2.1%
 
| 2.1%
 +
| 1.8%
 
| 1.8%
 
| 1.8%
 
| 1.8%
 
| 1.8%
Line 114: Line 126:
 
| 0.6%
 
| 0.6%
 
| 0.6%
 
| 0.6%
 +
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
Line 126: Line 139:
 
| '''54.5%'''
 
| '''54.5%'''
 
| '''54.5%'''
 
| '''54.5%'''
 +
| '''54.7%'''
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Gary Johnson
 
| Gary Johnson
Line 132: Line 146:
 
|  
 
|  
 
|  
 
|  
 +
| 0.4%
 
| 0.4%
 
| 0.4%
 
| 0.4%
 
| 0.4%
Line 141: Line 156:
 
|  
 
|  
 
|  
 
|  
 +
| '''0.4%'''
 
| '''0.4%'''
 
| '''0.4%'''
 
| '''0.4%'''
 
| '''0.4%'''

Revision as of 22:48, January 22, 2012

Candidate 11 Dec 2011 17 Dec 2011 26 Dec 2011 1 Jan 2012 5 Jan 2012 11 Jan 2012 18 Jan 2012 23 Jan 2012
Newt Gingrich 20.5% 18.2% 10.5% 5.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 10.1%
Mitt Romney 20.5% 20.4% 28.0% 34.2% 33.2% 34.1% 36.7% 30.3%
Ron Paul 4.8% 4.8% 4.4% 5.0% 3.7% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1%
Jon Huntsman 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Rick Perry 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Michele Bachmann 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rick Santorum 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.7% 4.1% 3.0% 2.1% 1.4%
Rudy Giuliani 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Republican Total 53.0% 50.6% 49.3% 50.3% 47.0% 45.1% 45.1% 44.9%
Barack Obama 44.8% 47.3% 48.5% 47.5% 50.5% 52.7% 52.7% 52.9%
Hilary Clinton 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Joe Biden 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Democrat Total 47.0% 49.4% 50.7% 49.7% 52.6% 54.5% 54.5% 54.7%
Gary Johnson 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Independent Total 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

(Source: William Hill, Ladbrokes)