Difference between revisions of "Wishful thinking"
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*I want ''P'' to be true. | *I want ''P'' to be true. | ||
*Therefore, ''P''. | *Therefore, ''P''. | ||
| − | A person engaging in wishful thinking almost never states it so bluntly, however. Instead, that person may [[cherry picking|cherry-pick]] the evidence or otherwise distort reality to support the desired conclusion | + | A person engaging in wishful thinking almost never states it so bluntly, however. Instead, that person may [[cherry picking|cherry-pick]] the evidence or otherwise distort reality to support the desired conclusion. |
There is also reverse wishful thinking, which is [[Murphy's law]] as a cognitive bias. | There is also reverse wishful thinking, which is [[Murphy's law]] as a cognitive bias. | ||
Revision as of 11:55, January 25, 2012
Wishful thinking is both a cognitive bias[1] and a logical fallacy.[2] It consists of believing something, or believing something to be more likely than it in fact is, because one wants it to be true.
As a logical fallacy, it it similar to the appeal to emotion, except that the appeal is to one's own emotion rather than only to the emotions of the audience. The fallacy makes a desire for the conclusion to be a premise; that is, it takes the following form:
- I want P to be true.
- Therefore, P.
A person engaging in wishful thinking almost never states it so bluntly, however. Instead, that person may cherry-pick the evidence or otherwise distort reality to support the desired conclusion.
There is also reverse wishful thinking, which is Murphy's law as a cognitive bias.
Examples
- Atheists engage in wishful thinking when they disbelieve in God because they do not want Him to exist, rather than because they have any direct evidence for the nonexistence of God.
- Believers in discredited scientific theories such as evolution and global warming cling to their beliefs for the same reason.