Difference between revisions of "User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds"
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| Line 173: | Line 173: | ||
! 11 Feb 2012 | ! 11 Feb 2012 | ||
! 20 Feb 2012 | ! 20 Feb 2012 | ||
| + | ! 29 Feb 2012 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Newt Gingrich | | Newt Gingrich | ||
| Line 179: | Line 180: | ||
| 2.0% | | 2.0% | ||
| 1.7% | | 1.7% | ||
| + | | 1.6% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Mitt Romney | | Mitt Romney | ||
| Line 185: | Line 187: | ||
| 29.9% | | 29.9% | ||
| 26.7% | | 26.7% | ||
| + | | 27.2% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Ron Paul | | Ron Paul | ||
| Line 191: | Line 194: | ||
| 1.5% | | 1.5% | ||
| 1.8% | | 1.8% | ||
| + | | 1.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Rick Santorum | | Rick Santorum | ||
| Line 197: | Line 201: | ||
| 6.9% | | 6.9% | ||
| 7.8% | | 7.8% | ||
| + | | 5.9% | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | Jeb Bush | ||
| + | | | ||
| + | | | ||
| + | | | ||
| + | | | ||
| + | | 1.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Republican Total''' | | '''Republican Total''' | ||
| Line 203: | Line 215: | ||
| '''40.3%''' | | '''40.3%''' | ||
| '''37.9%''' | | '''37.9%''' | ||
| + | | '''38.2%''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Barack Obama | | Barack Obama | ||
| Line 209: | Line 222: | ||
| 57.9% | | 57.9% | ||
| 60.3% | | 60.3% | ||
| + | | 60.1% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Hilary Clinton | | Hilary Clinton | ||
| Line 215: | Line 229: | ||
| 1.8% | | 1.8% | ||
| 1.8% | | 1.8% | ||
| + | | 1.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Democrat Total''' | | '''Democrat Total''' | ||
| Line 221: | Line 236: | ||
| '''59.7%''' | | '''59.7%''' | ||
| '''62.1%''' | | '''62.1%''' | ||
| + | | '''61.8%''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
Revision as of 11:44, February 29, 2012
Probability to end of January 2012
| Candidate | 11 Dec 2011 | 17 Dec 2011 | 26 Dec 2011 | 1 Jan 2012 | 5 Jan 2012 | 11 Jan 2012 | 18 Jan 2012 | 23 Jan 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newt Gingrich | 20.5% | 18.2% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 10.1% |
| Mitt Romney | 20.5% | 20.4% | 28.0% | 34.2% | 33.2% | 34.1% | 36.7% | 30.3% |
| Ron Paul | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| Jon Huntsman | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Perry | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Michele Bachmann | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Santorum | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Rudy Giuliani | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Republican Total | 53.0% | 50.6% | 49.3% | 50.3% | 47.0% | 45.1% | 45.1% | 44.9% |
| Barack Obama | 44.8% | 47.3% | 48.5% | 47.5% | 50.5% | 52.7% | 52.7% | 52.9% |
| Hilary Clinton | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Joe Biden | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Democrat Total | 47.0% | 49.4% | 50.7% | 49.7% | 52.6% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.7% |
| Gary Johnson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||||
| Independent Total | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Probability from February 2012
| Candidate | 1 Feb 2012 | 8 Feb 2012 | 11 Feb 2012 | 20 Feb 2012 | 29 Feb 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newt Gingrich | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Mitt Romney | 36.4% | 33.2% | 29.9% | 26.7% | 27.2% |
| Ron Paul | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Rick Santorum | 0.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% |
| Jeb Bush | 1.7% | ||||
| Republican Total | 43.4% | 42.0% | 40.3% | 37.9% | 38.2% |
| Barack Obama | 54.9% | 56.3% | 57.9% | 60.3% | 60.1% |
| Hilary Clinton | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Democrat Total | 56.6% | 58.0% | 59.7% | 62.1% | 61.8% |
(Source: William Hill, Ladbrokes)