Changes

In a November 2023 interview, John Mearsheimer said although there is a slim chance that the war will end soon with a neutral Ukraine (Due to the distrust of Russia towards Ukraine/West as a result of the duplicitiousness of Ukraine/West during the [[Minsk Agreements]]), Russia will annex two to four more oblasts in Ukraine especially the oblasts of Odessa and Kharkiv before the war ends. Once again, Mearsheimer indicates that the war in Ukraine may end in a unstable frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for. (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvFn7KUCTvE How the war in Ukraine will end | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman]). Mearsheimer also predicts that there will be a security competition between the USA/West/Ukraine and Russia that continues even if there is a frozen conflict and the risk of escalation is great. I agree with Mearsheimer about these matters.  

In a November 2023 interview, John Mearsheimer said although there is a slim chance that the war will end soon with a neutral Ukraine (Due to the distrust of Russia towards Ukraine/West as a result of the duplicitiousness of Ukraine/West during the [[Minsk Agreements]]), Russia will annex two to four more oblasts in Ukraine especially the oblasts of Odessa and Kharkiv before the war ends. Once again, Mearsheimer indicates that the war in Ukraine may end in a unstable frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for. (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvFn7KUCTvE How the war in Ukraine will end | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman]). Mearsheimer also predicts that there will be a security competition between the USA/West/Ukraine and Russia that continues even if there is a frozen conflict and the risk of escalation is great. I agree with Mearsheimer about these matters.  

While the average post [[WWII]] war that last longer than a year last about 10 years, given the growing Ukraine fatigue in the West and Ukraine's military weakness relative to Russia, I am increasingly optimistic that the war will end significantly sooner than 10 years.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website</ref>  

While the average post [[WWII]] war that last longer than a year last about 10 years, given the growing Ukraine fatigue in the USA/West and Ukraine's military weakness relative to Russia, I am increasingly optimistic that the war will end significantly sooner than 10 years.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website</ref>  

Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]] and [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state.  

Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]] and [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state.