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Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes (view source)
Revision as of 03:28, December 31, 2023
, 03:28, December 31, 2023no edit summary
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The war in Ukraine has aggravated a crisis that long predates the conflict. See: [[Russia's fertility rate]] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#:~:text=Demographic%20crisis,-See%20also%3A%20Demographic&text=Russia%20has%20become%20increasingly%20reliant,decline%20in%20over%20a%20decade. Demographics of Russia] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Russia Aging of Russia] ]]
The war in Ukraine has aggravated a crisis that long predates the conflict. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#:~:text=Demographic%20crisis,-See%20also%3A%20Demographic&text=Russia%20has%20become%20increasingly%20reliant,decline%20in%20over%20a%20decade. Demographics of Russia] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Russia Aging of Russia] ]]
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Russia's fertility rate of 1.58 births per woman is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.<ref name="IntelliNews">[https://intellinews.com/russian-fertility-rates-fall-to-record-lows-on-the-back-of-a-deteriorating-economy-and-sanctions-pressure-243191/ Russian fertility rates fall to record lows on the back of a deteriorating economy and sanctions pressure], bne IntelliNews, 2022</ref> It's fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.
Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.<ref name="IntelliNews"/> And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.<ref name="IntelliNews"/>
Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.<ref name="IntelliNews"/> And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.<ref name="IntelliNews"/>
Russia will go out swinging (Ukraine, etc.), but its age demographics (which is among the worst in the world in terms of an aging population) and other problems will cause a cultural collapse in Russia in the 21st century (See: [https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUvJPdHqYYiHaspPfyBkYLqYfiOXHyduu Peter Zeihan's demography series]). See: [[Russia's fertility rate]] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#:~:text=Demographic%20crisis,-See%20also%3A%20Demographic&text=Russia%20has%20become%20increasingly%20reliant,decline%20in%20over%20a%20decade. Demographics of Russia] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Russia Aging of Russia]
Russia will go out swinging (Ukraine, etc.), but its age demographics (which is among the worst in the world in terms of an aging population) and other problems will cause a cultural collapse in Russia in the 21st century (See: [https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUvJPdHqYYiHaspPfyBkYLqYfiOXHyduu Peter Zeihan's demography series]). See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#:~:text=Demographic%20crisis,-See%20also%3A%20Demographic&text=Russia%20has%20become%20increasingly%20reliant,decline%20in%20over%20a%20decade. Demographics of Russia] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Russia Aging of Russia]
Russia, fertility rate and demographics videos:
Russia, fertility rate and demographics videos: