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Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes (view source)
Revision as of 05:45, December 31, 2024
, 05:45, December 31, 2024→December 31, 2024 update
*[https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7OWfEU1gv9Q Russia's predicament, Stephen Kotkin] (short video)
*[https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7OWfEU1gv9Q Russia's predicament, Stephen Kotkin] (short video)
If Russia suffers from "national narcissism" and believes that Russia is responsible for 61% of all world history, then Trump essentially has to "reason with crazy" so to speak. And you can't reason with crazy. So it's not surprising if it's true that the odds of Trump settling the conflict is less than 50% within the first 90 days of the Trump administration. But maybe Russia's sky-high inflation, Russian ruble that has fallen in value and Russia's big labor shortages, and an increasing chance of Russia falling into stagflation (Company bankruptcies are increasing in Ukraine due to the very high interest rates in Russia, etc.) will make the Russians more amenable to working out a deal with Trump soon.
If Russia suffers from "national narcissism" and believes that Russia is responsible for 61% of all world history, then Trump essentially has to "reason with crazy" so to speak. And you can't reason with crazy. So it's not surprising if it's true that the odds of Trump settling the conflict is less than 50% within the first 90 days of the Trump administration. But maybe Russia's sky-high inflation, Russian ruble that has fallen in value and Russia's big labor shortages, and an increasing chance of Russia falling into stagflation (Company bankruptcies are increasing in Russia due to the very high interest rates in Russia, etc.) will make the Russians more amenable to working out a deal with Trump soon.
Trump's team may eventually work out a deal with Russia (with the most likely outcome eventually being a frozen conflict that may flare up from time to time as mentioned above), but the odds does seem like it's less than 50% of it happening in the first 90 days of the Trump Administration.
Trump's team may eventually work out a deal with Russia (with the most likely outcome eventually being a frozen conflict that may flare up from time to time as mentioned above), but the odds does seem like it's less than 50% of it happening in the first 90 days of the Trump Administration.