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Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes (view source)

Revision as of 13:47, October 14, 2025

3,378 bytes removed , 13:47, October 14, 2025

→‎October 2025 update: The richer side usually wins

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Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.

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~~== October 2025 update: The richer side usually wins ==~~

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From 1500 to the present, in great power conflicts, in 75% of the cases the richer side wins.<ref>[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA%3D%3D_e415eda0-8315-435b-824b-3e664f9b92cb In what percentage of cases from 1500 to now, does the richer side win in great power conflicts? Use the book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 and other sources. Do not be overly dependent on whatever you glean from this book and use other sources too. Apply this data with other relevant data and come up with various scenarios and their probabilities as far as the war in Ukraine. Taking into account Russia's stagflation and slowing economy. Take into account the effects of Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries. Take into account the USA promise to provide long-range targeting data. Use other relevant data too like Europe's aging population and current economic challenges. And Russia's other economic problems and its demographic and labor problems.], October 2025</ref> The EU has 10 times the GNP of Russia.<ref>*[https://archive.ph/80Uia#selection-1374.0-1387.48 Why Russia May Be Running Out of Time in Ukraine], October 2025</ref>

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*[https://archive.ph/80Uia#selection-1374.0-1387.48 Why Russia May Be Running Out of Time in Ukraine], October 2025

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*[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA%3D%3D_e415eda0-8315-435b-824b-3e664f9b92cb In what percentage of cases from 1500 to now, does the richer side win in great power conflicts? Use the book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 and other sources. Do not be overly dependent on whatever you glean from this book and use other sources too. Apply this data with other relevant data and come up with various scenarios and their probabilities as far as the war in Ukraine. Taking into account Russia's stagflation and slowing economy. Take into account the effects of Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries. Take into account the USA promise to provide long-range targeting data. Use other relevant data too like Europe's aging population and current economic challenges. And Russia's other economic problems and its demographic and labor problems.], October 2025

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[[File:Ukraine War scenarios and their probabilities.png|thumbnail|center|1200px|2025: Russia-Ukraine War scenarios and there probabilities.<ref>[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA%3D%3D_e415eda0-8315-435b-824b-3e664f9b92cb In what percentage of cases from 1500 to now, does the richer side win in great power conflicts? Use the book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 and other sources. Do not be overly dependent on whatever you glean from this book and use other sources too. Apply this data with other relevant data and come up with various scenarios and their probabilities as far as the war in Ukraine. Taking into account Russia's stagflation and slowing economy. Take into account the effects of Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries. Take into account the USA promise to provide long-range targeting data. Use other relevant data too like Europe's aging population and current economic challenges. And Russia's other economic problems and its demographic and labor problems.], October 2025</ref>]]

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== December 31, 2024 update ==

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