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Mearsheimer predicted the [[war]] in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wi_0oiZ7vU Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War])

Mearsheimer predicted the [[war]] in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wi_0oiZ7vU Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War])

In December 2023, Mearsheimer indicated that he believes that the war in Ukraine may turn into a frozen conflict within a year.<ref>[https://youtu.be/F-Rj5LibR1o?si=0eKA3Bf6Rao_CT7R&t=2355 John Mearsheimer: There is no two-state solution]</ref> Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out its hard to predict.

In December 2023, Mearsheimer indicated that he believes that the war in Ukraine may turn into a frozen conflict within a year.<ref>[https://youtu.be/F-Rj5LibR1o?si=0eKA3Bf6Rao_CT7R&t=2355 John Mearsheimer: There is no two-state solution]</ref> Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out it's hard to predict.

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZ_DZSHHRMc Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18]</ref>  

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZ_DZSHHRMc Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18]</ref>  

Alexander Mercouris is a UK writer on international affairs who cohosts [[The Duran YouTube channel]] with Alex Christoforou who lives in Cyprus. The Duran YouTube channel is a pro-Russia YouTube channel. On November 8, 2023, The Duran YouTube channel, published the video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IkNLieg1L0 West will choke on Putin's terms for Ukraine] which pointed how badly the war was going for Ukraine and that Ukraine and the West will not like Russia's terms for ending the conflict. In addition, they stated that the "stalemate narrative" that various pro-Ukrainian advocates are pushing are fake, absurd and born of desperation and that the Ukrainian army is running out of fighting men. In addition, Mercoouris noted that although the Biden Administration and the collective West will be hurt by the war in Ukraine, "The United States will pull through" and that it's "not an existential disaster" for the USA, but for Europe (Especially Germany) it will be a big blow.   

Alexander Mercouris is a UK writer on international affairs who cohosts [[The Duran YouTube channel]] with Alex Christoforou who lives in Cyprus. The Duran YouTube channel is a pro-Russia YouTube channel. On November 8, 2023, The Duran YouTube channel, published the video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IkNLieg1L0 West will choke on Putin's terms for Ukraine] which pointed how badly the war was going for Ukraine and that Ukraine and the West will not like Russia's terms for ending the conflict. In addition, they stated that the "stalemate narrative" that various pro-Ukrainian advocates are pushing are fake, absurd and born of desperation and that the Ukrainian army is running out of fighting men. In addition, Mercoouris noted that although the Biden Administration and the collective West will be hurt by the war in Ukraine, "The United States will pull through" and that it's "not an existential disaster" for the USA, but for Europe (Especially Germany) it will be a big blow.   

In a November 2023 interview, John Mearsheimer said although there is a slim chance that the war will end soon with a neutral Ukraine (Due to the distrust of Russia towards Ukraine/West as a result of the duplicitiousness of Ukraine/West during the [[Minsk Agreements]]), Russia will annex two to four more oblasts in Ukraine especially the oblasts of Odessa and Kharkiv before the war ends. Once again, Mearsheimer indicates that the war in Ukraine may end in a unstable frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for. (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvFn7KUCTvE How the war in Ukraine will end | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman]). Mearsheimer also predicts that there will be a security competition between the USA/West/Ukraine and Russia that continues even if there is a frozen conflict and the risk of escalation is great. I agree with Mearsheimer about these matters.  

In a November 2023 interview, John Mearsheimer said although there is a slim chance that the war will end soon with a neutral Ukraine (Due to the distrust of Russia towards Ukraine/West as a result of the duplicitiousness of Ukraine/West during the [[Minsk Agreements]]), Russia will annex two to four more oblasts in Ukraine, especially the oblasts of Odessa and Kharkiv, before the war ends. Once again, Mearsheimer indicates that the war in Ukraine may end in an unstable frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for. (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvFn7KUCTvE How the war in Ukraine will end | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman]). Mearsheimer also predicts that there will be a security competition between the USA/West/Ukraine and Russia that continues even if there is a frozen conflict and the risk of escalation is great. I agree with Mearsheimer about these matters.  

While the average post [[WWII]] war that last longer than a year last about 10 years, given the growing Ukraine fatigue in the USA/West and Ukraine's military weakness relative to Russia, I am increasingly optimistic that the war will end significantly sooner than 10 years.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website</ref>  

While the average post [[WWII]] war that lasts longer than a year lasts about 10 years, given the growing Ukraine fatigue in the USA/West and Ukraine's military weakness relative to Russia, I am increasingly optimistic that the war will end significantly sooner than 10 years.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website</ref>  

Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]] and [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state.  

Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]] and [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state.