Forecast

A forecast is a statement of expected future occurrences. Weather forecasting includes the use of objective models based on certain atmospheric parameters, along with the skill and experience of a meteorologist to forecast the expected weather. A business forecast is management's best estimate of what will happen during the forecast period.

Political forecasting

• Political betting markets
• Public opinion poll

Video on political forecasting

• Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? | Philip Tetlock

Book related to political forecasting

• Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006).

Economic forecasting and economic recessions/depressions

Inverted yield curves and upcoming recessions

• What You Need to Know About the Inverted Yield Curve

• US Treasury yield curve

Volatility Index (VIX)

• The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market. When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.

The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) creates and tracks an index know as the Volatility Index (VIX), which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index options.

• The Vix Index - Investopedia - The VIX is used as a contrary market indicator, how institutional sentiment can be measured by VIX, and why an understanding of the VIX tends to favor long and short puts.

KEY TAKEAWAYs

• The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market.
• When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.
• Buying when the VIX is high and selling when it is low is a strategy, but one that needs to be considered against other factors and indicators.

• VIX Chart

• Determining market direction with VIX