Difference between revisions of "User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds"
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| Line 177: | Line 177: | ||
! 11 April 2012 | ! 11 April 2012 | ||
! 19 April 2012 | ! 19 April 2012 | ||
| + | ! 12 May 2012 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Newt Gingrich | | Newt Gingrich | ||
| Line 186: | Line 187: | ||
| 1.5% | | 1.5% | ||
| 0.7% | | 0.7% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 197: | Line 199: | ||
| 32.1% | | 32.1% | ||
| 34.0% | | 34.0% | ||
| + | | 33.5% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Ron Paul | | Ron Paul | ||
| Line 206: | Line 209: | ||
| 1.3% | | 1.3% | ||
| 1.5% | | 1.5% | ||
| + | | 1.8% | ||
| 1.8% | | 1.8% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 216: | Line 220: | ||
| 4.2% | | 4.2% | ||
| 1.3% | | 1.3% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 227: | Line 232: | ||
| 1.0% | | 1.0% | ||
| 1.4% | | 1.4% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Republican Total''' | | '''Republican Total''' | ||
| Line 237: | Line 243: | ||
| '''36.6%''' | | '''36.6%''' | ||
| '''37.1%''' | | '''37.1%''' | ||
| + | | '''35.3%''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Barack Obama | | Barack Obama | ||
| Line 247: | Line 254: | ||
| 62.1% | | 62.1% | ||
| 62.9% | | 62.9% | ||
| + | | 62.1% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Hilary Clinton | | Hilary Clinton | ||
| Line 257: | Line 265: | ||
| 1.3% | | 1.3% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| + | | 2.6% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Democrat Total''' | | '''Democrat Total''' | ||
| Line 267: | Line 276: | ||
| '''63.4%''' | | '''63.4%''' | ||
| '''62.9%''' | | '''62.9%''' | ||
| + | | '''64.7%''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
Revision as of 04:10, May 12, 2012
Probability to end of January 2012
| Candidate | 11 Dec 2011 | 17 Dec 2011 | 26 Dec 2011 | 1 Jan 2012 | 5 Jan 2012 | 11 Jan 2012 | 18 Jan 2012 | 23 Jan 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newt Gingrich | 20.5% | 18.2% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 10.1% |
| Mitt Romney | 20.5% | 20.4% | 28.0% | 34.2% | 33.2% | 34.1% | 36.7% | 30.3% |
| Ron Paul | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| Jon Huntsman | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Perry | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Michele Bachmann | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Santorum | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Rudy Giuliani | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Republican Total | 53.0% | 50.6% | 49.3% | 50.3% | 47.0% | 45.1% | 45.1% | 44.9% |
| Barack Obama | 44.8% | 47.3% | 48.5% | 47.5% | 50.5% | 52.7% | 52.7% | 52.9% |
| Hilary Clinton | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Joe Biden | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Democrat Total | 47.0% | 49.4% | 50.7% | 49.7% | 52.6% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.7% |
| Gary Johnson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||||
| Independent Total | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Probability from February 2012
| Candidate | 1 Feb 2012 | 8 Feb 2012 | 11 Feb 2012 | 20 Feb 2012 | 29 Feb 2012 | 9 March 2012 | 11 April 2012 | 19 April 2012 | 12 May 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newt Gingrich | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitt Romney | 36.4% | 33.2% | 29.9% | 26.7% | 27.2% | 28.7% | 32.1% | 34.0% | 33.5% |
| Ron Paul | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Rick Santorum | 0.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeb Bush | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | ||||
| Republican Total | 43.4% | 42.0% | 40.3% | 37.9% | 38.2% | 37.0% | 36.6% | 37.1% | 35.3% |
| Barack Obama | 54.9% | 56.3% | 57.9% | 60.3% | 60.1% | 61.9% | 62.1% | 62.9% | 62.1% |
| Hilary Clinton | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| Democrat Total | 56.6% | 58.0% | 59.7% | 62.1% | 61.8% | 63.0% | 63.4% | 62.9% | 64.7% |
(Source: William Hill, Ladbrokes)