Changes

Although I would like the war in Ukraine to end soon, I suspect that Professor [[John Joseph Mearsheimer]] is correct and that the war will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See:  [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine]). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time.  

Although I would like the war in Ukraine to end soon, I suspect that Professor [[John Joseph Mearsheimer]] is correct and that the war will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See:  [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine]). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time.  

Also, any "victory" Russia achieves in terms of land gained it will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state. In addition, I predict that American/NATO taxpayers will continue to pay for this boondoggle with their tax money for several more years.

Also, any "victory" Russia achieves in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state. In addition, I predict that American/NATO taxpayers will continue to pay for this boondoggle with their tax money for several more years.

''Axios'' reports: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."[https://www.axios.com/2023/08/23/white-house-ukraine-war-aid-congress-support]

''Axios'' reports: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."[https://www.axios.com/2023/08/23/white-house-ukraine-war-aid-congress-support]

If Donald Trump (or some other Republican) is elected in 2024, maybe Donald Trump (or that Republican) will surprise me and strike a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as early as 2024 or 2025 (Long-shot events do sometimes happen as evidenced by anyone who has ever seen a black swan). But even if such a thing were accomplished, things will flare up to some degree after such a peace agreement.  

If Donald Trump (or some other Republican) is elected in 2024, maybe Donald Trump (or that Republican) will surprise me and strike a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as early as 2024 or 2025 (Long-shot events do sometimes happen as evidenced by anyone who has ever seen a black swan). But even if such a thing were accomplished, things will flare up to some degree after such a peace agreement.  

Although I can potentially see the war in Ukraine ending in 2025 if Trump or another Republican is elected (Ukraine is not of vital national interest of the USA), it seems unlikely given the animosity between Russia/Ukraine now and other factors mentioned in the video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine]. But Trump did make relations between North Korea and the USA better for a while. However, regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.

Although I can potentially see the war in Ukraine ending in 2025 if Trump or another Republican is elected (Ukraine is not of vital national interest of the USA), it seems unlikely given the animosity between Russia/Ukraine now and other factors mentioned in the video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine]. But Trump did make relations between North Korea and the USA better for a while. However, regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and that is the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). He also indicates that the frozen conflict will have flare ups and I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and that is the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). He also indicates that the frozen conflict will have flare-ups and I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.

== How long do post WW2 wars last - some relevant statistics ==

== How long do post WW2 wars last - some relevant statistics ==