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Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes (view source)
Revision as of 16:15, August 28, 2023
, 16:15, August 28, 2023→Russian oil and gas revenue is down
Russia's economy is not highly diversified. It is too dependent on oil and gas. See: [[Essay: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines|Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines]]
Russia's economy is not highly diversified. It is too dependent on oil and gas. See: [[Essay: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines|Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines]]
Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas. China's economy is having significant problems compared to its past. If China's economy gets worse (And there is some evidence that China's future economy will may worse this decade and beyond), that is going to hurt the Russian economy. See: [[Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power]]). See also: [[Essay: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines|Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines]]
Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas. China's economy is having significant problems compared to its past. If China's economy gets worse (And there is some evidence that China's future economy will may worse this decade and beyond), that is going to hurt the Russian economy.
"Even the act of diverting supplies to Asia entails a significant reduction in Russian companies’ profit margins. It costs a lot more to transport oil to Asian markets than to Europe, and there is not much spare transport capacity, which pushes up the cost of freight, reducing the profit made by Russian companies, whatever the amount at which the price is capped.
"Even the act of diverting supplies to Asia entails a significant reduction in Russian companies’ profit margins. It costs a lot more to transport oil to Asian markets than to Europe, and there is not much spare transport capacity, which pushes up the cost of freight, reducing the profit made by Russian companies, whatever the amount at which the price is capped.