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Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes (view source)
Revision as of 05:35, December 31, 2024
, 05:35, December 31, 2024→How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics.
Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.
Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.
== December 31, 2024 update ==
As of December 31, 2024, the political betting market Polymarket gives a 42% chance of Trump ending the war in Ukraine in 90 days from his first day in office (See: Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days? ).
It's less than 50/50.
Here is something to consider: [[Essay: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Role in World History|We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Role in World History]]
'''Key quote:''' "Russians, for example, estimated that their country was responsible for 61% of world history." - Source: [http://psychnet.wustl.edu/memory/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Zaromb_etal_JARMAC.pdf We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History], ''Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition'', Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528
[[File:National narcissism map by country - world map.png|thumbnail|1600px|center|Map data derived from: [http://psychnet.wustl.edu/memory/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Zaromb_etal_JARMAC.pdf We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History], ''Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition'', Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528]]
Also, look at these resources:
*[https://bigthink.com/the-past/russia-myths-and-realities/ Why Russia sees itself as much more than just a nation]
*[https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7OWfEU1gv9Q Russia's predicament, Stephen Kotkin] (short video)
If Russia suffers from "national narcissism" and believes that Russia is responsible for 61% of all world history, then Trump essentially has to "reason with crazy" so to speak. And you can't reason with crazy. So it's not surprising if its true that the odds of Trump settling the conflict is less than 50% within the first 90 days of the Trump administration. But maybe Russia's sky-high inflation, Russian ruble that has fallen in value and Russia's big labor shortages will make the Russians more amenable to working out a deal with Trump soon.
Trump's team may eventually work out a deal with Russia, but the odds do seem like it's less than 50% of it happening in the first 90 days
== Academic research ==
*[http://psychnet.wustl.edu/memory/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Zaromb_etal_JARMAC.pdf We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History], ''Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition'', Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528
== How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics. ==
== How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics. ==