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Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes (view source)

Revision as of 13:59, October 14, 2025

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→‎October 2025 analysis: The richer side usually wins

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[[File:Ukraine War scenarios and their probabilities.png|thumbnail|center|1200px|2025: Russia-Ukraine War scenarios and there probabilities.<ref>[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA%3D%3D_e415eda0-8315-435b-824b-3e664f9b92cb In what percentage of cases from 1500 to now, does the richer side win in great power conflicts? Use the book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 and other sources. Do not be overly dependent on whatever you glean from this book and use other sources too. Apply this data with other relevant data and come up with various scenarios and their probabilities as far as the war in Ukraine. Taking into account Russia's stagflation and slowing economy. Take into account the effects of Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries. Take into account the USA promise to provide long-range targeting data. Use other relevant data too like Europe's aging population and current economic challenges. And Russia's other economic problems and its demographic and labor problems.], October 2025</ref>]]

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In his March 2022 interview with ''The New Yorker'', Mearsheimer indicated:

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{{Cquote|I’m talking about the raw-power potential of Russia—the amount of economic might it has. Military might is built on economic might. You need an economic foundation to build a really powerful military. To go out and conquer countries like Ukraine and the Baltic states and to re-create the former Soviet Union or re-create the former Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe would require a massive army, and that would require an economic foundation that contemporary Russia does not come close to having. There is no reason to fear that Russia is going to be a regional hegemony in Europe. Russia is not a serious threat to the United States. We do face a serious threat in the international system. We face a peer competitor. And that’s China. Our policy in Eastern Europe is undermining our ability to deal with the most dangerous threat that we face today.<ref>[https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine], The New Yorker, March 2022</ref>}}

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In 2014, Mearsheimer said: "Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time."<ref>[https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-18/why-ukraine-crisis-west-s-fault Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault], Foreign Affairs, Published August 18, 2014</ref>

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In a 2023 interview, John Mearsheimer said Russia was a "weak great power" (See: [https://youtu.be/FIfJNK2rLlQ?feature=shared&t=969 Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer], 16:09 in the interview). Russia had great difficulty gaining land from the country of Ukraine which has a much smaller population due to Russia's weak military (see: [[Essay: Russian military weaknesses|Russian military weaknesses]]).

== 2023 Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War ==

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