SkipCaptcha, Automoderated users, edit
1,134
edits
Changes
Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes (view source)
Revision as of 02:44, October 15, 2025
, 02:44, October 15, 2025→October 2025 analysis: The richer side usually wins
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
[[File:Ukraine War scenarios and their probabilities.png|thumbnail|center|1200px|2025: Russia-Ukraine War scenarios and there probabilities.<ref>[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA%3D%3D_e415eda0-8315-435b-824b-3e664f9b92cb In what percentage of cases from 1500 to now, does the richer side win in great power conflicts? Use the book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 and other sources. Do not be overly dependent on whatever you glean from this book and use other sources too. Apply this data with other relevant data and come up with various scenarios and their probabilities as far as the war in Ukraine. Taking into account Russia's stagflation and slowing economy. Take into account the effects of Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries. Take into account the USA promise to provide long-range targeting data. Use other relevant data too like Europe's aging population and current economic challenges. And Russia's other economic problems and its demographic and labor problems.], October 2025</ref>]]
[[File:Ukraine War scenarios and their probabilities.png|thumbnail|center|1200px|2025: Russia-Ukraine War scenarios and their probabilities.<ref>[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA%3D%3D_e415eda0-8315-435b-824b-3e664f9b92cb In what percentage of cases from 1500 to now, does the richer side win in great power conflicts? Use the book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 and other sources. Do not be overly dependent on whatever you glean from this book and use other sources too. Apply this data with other relevant data and come up with various scenarios and their probabilities as far as the war in Ukraine. Taking into account Russia's stagflation and slowing economy. Take into account the effects of Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries. Take into account the USA promise to provide long-range targeting data. Use other relevant data too like Europe's aging population and current economic challenges. And Russia's other economic problems and its demographic and labor problems.], October 2025</ref>]]