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→When do you estimate Haley and Vivek will drop out?
:DeSantis runs 2nd in Iowa and Haley has a chance to run 2nd in NH. If Desantis takes 2nd in NH, it's a two man race until Trump has enough delegates. If Haley survives NH, the Haley-DeSantis contest goes into overtime.
:DeSantis runs 2nd in Iowa and Haley has a chance to run 2nd in NH. If Desantis takes 2nd in NH, it's a two man race until Trump has enough delegates. If Haley survives NH, the Haley-DeSantis contest goes into overtime.
:An important factor is fundraising. If either DeSantis or Haley appear to have done less than expected, fundraising dries up. By contrast, if Haley does better than expected in Iowa (not likely) or NH (a long shot), then the money starts poring to DeSantis detriment.
:An important factor is fundraising. If either DeSantis or Haley appear to have done less than expected, fundraising dries up. By contrast, if Haley does better than expected in Iowa (not likely) or NH (a long shot), then the money starts poring into Haley's coffers, and away from DeSantis to his detriment.
:DeSantis strategy is take 2nd in Iowa, 3rd in NH, and 2nd in SC. That keeps him in the race beyond Feb. 3. Haley's only prayer is to finish 2nd in two of those three races. Without that, she's cooked. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Zelensky didn't kill himself'']]</sup> 15:35, January 11, 2024 (EST)
:DeSantis strategy is take 2nd in Iowa, 3rd in NH, and 2nd in SC. That keeps him in the race beyond Feb. 3. Haley's only prayer is to finish 2nd in two of those three races. Without that, she's cooked. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Zelensky didn't kill himself'']]</sup> 15:35, January 11, 2024 (EST)
:Alternative theory (Trump's version): DeSantis staked everything on Iowa. If he finishes 2nd, he drops out., leaving Trump & Haley the last 2 men standing. Then it becomes a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Democrats preferred globalist. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Zelensky didn't kill himself'']]</sup> 23:52, January 11, 2024 (EST)
:Alternative theory (Trump's version): DeSantis staked everything on Iowa. If he finishes 2nd, he drops out., leaving Trump & Haley the last 2 men standing. Then it becomes a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Democrats preferred globalist. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Zelensky didn't kill himself'']]</sup> 23:52, January 11, 2024 (EST)
::More on money in campaigns: What many people don't understand is, many campaigns run hand to mouth (due to current campaign finance laws). Candidates spend the entirety of 2023 raising money which ALL gets spent in Iowa. If they fail to meet that mark, they drop out (like Christie just did, or Kamala did in December 2019. She famously said in the fall of 2019, "I'm moving to Iowa", meaning she bet the farm of her whole campaign war chest on Iowa, and didn't even last that long).
::Each primary win gives a boast in fundraising for the next primary contest. Most candidates literally live hand to mouth. This is why Trump predicts DeSantis to drop out if he fails to win, or do less than expected. Christie was running on gas fumes.
::Trump OTOH, is not dependent on donors.
::Biden, who ran 5th in Iowa in 2020, didn't spend a dime in Iowa. He bet it all on South Carolina and Super Tuesday. That's why Buttboy, Klobuchar, and others dropped out on election eve - they were running on fumes, knew they wouldn't pick up any new donors, and cut the best deal they could for career advancement. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Zelensky didn't kill himself'']]</sup> 13:26, January 12, 2024 (EST)
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