Block, Siteadmin, SkipCaptcha, Upload, Automoderated users, delete, edit, move, nsTeam2RO, nsTeam2RW, nsTeam2_talkRO, nsTeam2_talkRW, protect, rollback, Administrators, template
294,873
edits
Changes
→Netanyahu's optimistic speech
===Prediction markets===
Here is what the best prediction market for geopolitics Metaculus.com says:
Here is what the best prediction market for geopolitics Metaculus.com says:
"Specifically regarding Israel-related forecasts (including the Israel-Gaza conflict post-October 2023, Israel-Iran tensions, Hezbollah, and broader Middle East dynamics), the track record is mixed but shows both successes and notable misses, which is typical for volatile, fast-moving geopolitical topics."
"Specifically regarding Israel-related forecasts (including the Israel-Gaza conflict post-October 2023, Israel-Iran tensions, Hezbollah, and broader Middle East dynamics), the track record is mixed but shows both successes and notable misses, which is typical for volatile, fast-moving geopolitical topics."
Now to ask what's the track record for wars in Israel, that is too complicated. Each case is different .[[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 22:23, March 19, 2026 (EDT)
Now to ask what's the track record for wars in Israel, that is too complicated. Each case is different .[[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 22:23, March 19, 2026 (EDT)
===[https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/04/how-polling-failures-gambling-legalization-and-political-gridlock-paved-the-way-for-the-explosive-rise-of-prediction-markets.html How Polling Failures, Gambling Legalization and Political Gridlock Paved the Way for the Explosive Rise of Prediction Markets]===
An analysis of [[User:Conservative]]'s latest [[obsessive compulsive disorder|obsession]].
Yves Smith: "I hate having to pay attention to [[prediction markets]] because the increasing popularity of [[gambling]] is '''a sign of social breakdown'''" - Amen, sister. But to hear [[User:Conservative]] tell it, it's ultimate wisdom & a sign of right and wrong. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.]]</sup> 07:29, April 1, 2026 (EDT)
== So Chris Wray lied??? ==
== So Chris Wray lied??? ==