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United States Presidential Election, 2008 (view source)

Revision as of 17:39, August 2, 2008

1,758 bytes added ,  17:39, August 2, 2008
More states, section on uncommitted
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The internet has also played a major role in the election, with then-Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul and Democratic candidate Barack Obama being very active on the internet.
 
The internet has also played a major role in the election, with then-Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul and Democratic candidate Barack Obama being very active on the internet.
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== Uncommitted Electorate ==
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As of July 30th, 2008 14% of respondents are undecided, almost twice as high as the 8% at a similar time period in 2004.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/in_white_house_race_twice_as_many_voters_uncommitted_compared_to_four_years_ago</ref>
    
== Analysis of State by Region ==
 
== Analysis of State by Region ==
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John McCain will do very well in the deep south.  This includes the states of [[Texas]], [[Alabama]], [[Mississippi]], [[Louisiana]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Arkansas]], [[Tennessee]], [[Kentucky]] and [[West Virginia]].  This area is generally [[conservative]], and many of these states have not voted for a Democrat in a long time.  Here, John McCain is very popular, and there should be no contest.  Although Obama believes in a fifty-state strategy, it is unlikely that such a strategy will be helpful in getting out the vote in these states apart from the black population.
 
John McCain will do very well in the deep south.  This includes the states of [[Texas]], [[Alabama]], [[Mississippi]], [[Louisiana]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Arkansas]], [[Tennessee]], [[Kentucky]] and [[West Virginia]].  This area is generally [[conservative]], and many of these states have not voted for a Democrat in a long time.  Here, John McCain is very popular, and there should be no contest.  Although Obama believes in a fifty-state strategy, it is unlikely that such a strategy will be helpful in getting out the vote in these states apart from the black population.
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== Battleground States ==
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== State by State Breakdown ==
 
The United States had become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:
 
The United States had become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:
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#Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)
 
#Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)
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It is assumed that the 2008 election will be similar where close battles in a few states could determine the outcome.  Individual state polling numbers for the 2008 election:
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It is assumed that the 2008 election will be similar where close battles in a few states could determine the outcome.  Individual state polling numbers for the 2008 election so far:
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* Red  = Republican
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* Blue = Democrat
    
{| class="wikitable"
 
{| class="wikitable"
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! Obama (D)
 
! Obama (D)
 
! McCain (R)
 
! McCain (R)
−
! Data
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! Source
 
! Updated
 
! Updated
−
|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:red"
 
|Alaska
 
|Alaska
 
|40%
 
|40%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
| 7/31/08
 
| 7/31/08
−
|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
 
|Colorado
 
|Colorado
 
|49%
 
|49%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|7/21/08
 
|7/21/08
−
|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
 
|Florida
 
|Florida
 
|46%
 
|46%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|7/22/08
 
|7/22/08
−
|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
 
|Iowa
 
|Iowa
 
|48%
 
|48%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|7/10/08
 
|7/10/08
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|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:red"
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|Kentucky
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|39%
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|49%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_presidential_election Rasmussen]
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|7/29/08
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|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
 
|Michigan
 
|Michigan
−
|47%
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|47%  
 
|39%
 
|39%
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|7/10/08
 
|7/10/08
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|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
 
|Minnesota
 
|Minnesota
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|49%
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|49%  
 
|37%
 
|37%
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|7/22/08
 
|7/22/08
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|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:red"
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|Mississippi
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|41%
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|52%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/election_2008_mississippi_presidential_election Rasmussen]
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|7/28/08
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|- style="backround:white; color:red"
 
|Missouri
 
|Missouri
 
|42%
 
|42%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|7/07/08
 
|7/07/08
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|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:red"
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|Montana
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|44%
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|45%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election Rasmussen]
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|7/29/08
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|- style="backround:white; color:red"
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|Nebraska
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|32%
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|50%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nebraska/election_2008_nebraska_president Rasmussen]
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|7/28/08
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|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
 
|Nevada
 
|Nevada
 
|42%
 
|42%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|7/16/08
 
|7/16/08
−
|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
 
|New Hampshire
 
|New Hampshire
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|47%
 
|41%
 
|41%
−
|47%
   
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|7/23/08
 
|7/23/08
−
|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:red"
 
|Ohio
 
|Ohio
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|40%
 
|46%
 
|46%
−
|40%
   
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|7/21/08
 
|7/21/08
−
|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
 
|Pennsylvania
 
|Pennsylvania
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|47%
 
|42%
 
|42%
−
|47%
   
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2 Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2 Rasmussen]
 
|7/22/08
 
|7/22/08
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|- style="backround:white; color:red"
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|Texas
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|41%
 +
|50%
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/election_2008_texas_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 +
|7/30/08
 
|-
 
|-
 
|Virginia
 
|Virginia
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|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election Rasmussen]
 
|7/16/08
 
|7/16/08
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|-
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|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
 
|Wisconsin
 
|Wisconsin
 
|50%
 
|50%
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===Other Important Swing States===
 
===Other Important Swing States===
 
Moreover, it is very important for republicans to hold Ohio and Florida.  Fortunately, both states have tended to lean republican in the last two presidential elections.  Although Florida was disputed in election 2000, it went to Bush undeniably in 2004.  Virginia will also be heavily contested this year.
 
Moreover, it is very important for republicans to hold Ohio and Florida.  Fortunately, both states have tended to lean republican in the last two presidential elections.  Although Florida was disputed in election 2000, it went to Bush undeniably in 2004.  Virginia will also be heavily contested this year.
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===Declared Republican Party Candidates===
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[[John H. Cox]]
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UN Ambassador [[Alan Keyes]]
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Senator [[John McCain]], [[Arizona]]
      
===Withdrawn Republican Party Candidates===
 
===Withdrawn Republican Party Candidates===
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The ''move on masses'' of the blogosphere require that any Democratic candidate frame the election as an attack on George Bush. Since they can't run against the President, the attack will be on ''Bush Politics'', chiefly the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. That stance will be echoed repeatedly regardless of whatever real situation taking place in Iraq (where American forces turned over strategic control of the last province, Al Anbar) or in the economy (where the Dow hit record highs, before accounting for inflation, as recently as October 2007 and unemployment is near all time lows). The blogosphere led democrats to be overconfident in 2004, over estimating their voting support among young people who actually vote. However, with Democrats in control of both houses this election remains critical.  
 
The ''move on masses'' of the blogosphere require that any Democratic candidate frame the election as an attack on George Bush. Since they can't run against the President, the attack will be on ''Bush Politics'', chiefly the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. That stance will be echoed repeatedly regardless of whatever real situation taking place in Iraq (where American forces turned over strategic control of the last province, Al Anbar) or in the economy (where the Dow hit record highs, before accounting for inflation, as recently as October 2007 and unemployment is near all time lows). The blogosphere led democrats to be overconfident in 2004, over estimating their voting support among young people who actually vote. However, with Democrats in control of both houses this election remains critical.  
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===Declared Democratic Party Candidates===
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Senator [[Barack Obama]], [[Illinois]]
      
=== Withdrawn Democratic Party candidates ===
 
=== Withdrawn Democratic Party candidates ===
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