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Talk:Significance of E. Coli Evolution Experiments (view source)
Revision as of 12:51, March 26, 2009
, 12:51, March 26, 2009P-value in paper wrong for flawed test statistic in experiment two
::::::For the second replay experiment, Blount reports that one million resamplings gives a p-value of 0.0007. When I run the Monte Carlo simulations, ten million resamplings give a p-value of 0.00060; one hundred million resamplings give a p-value of 0.00062, and one ''billion'' resamplings give a p of 0.00061.
::::::For the second replay experiment, Blount reports that one million resamplings gives a p-value of 0.0007. When I run the Monte Carlo simulations, ten million resamplings give a p-value of 0.00060; one hundred million resamplings give a p-value of 0.00062, and one ''billion'' resamplings give a p of 0.00061.
:::::::I got 0.0006 using ten million realizations and the flawed test statistic. The paper had 0.0007. The authors obviously didn't use enough Monte Carlo realizations. I'm going to add this to the list of flaws in the paper. [http://www.conservapedia.com/Flaws_in_Richard_Lenski_Study] [[User:SJohnson|SJohnson]] 08:51, 26 March 2009 (EDT)
::::::As to the brute-force method for the second replay: the 4.41x10^12 combinations of five cultures picked from 340 actually represents 'only' 36.8 billion unique combinations, since for the purposes of calculating a mean generation value, the ordering of the cultures does not matter: 0, 0, 0, 0, 10 gives the same mean as 10, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0, 10, 0, 0, 0. With brute force, it turns out that out of the 36,760,655,568 unique combinations possible in the second replay, 22,536,306 have means that are greater than or equal to 32,100.
::::::As to the brute-force method for the second replay: the 4.41x10^12 combinations of five cultures picked from 340 actually represents 'only' 36.8 billion unique combinations, since for the purposes of calculating a mean generation value, the ordering of the cultures does not matter: 0, 0, 0, 0, 10 gives the same mean as 10, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0, 10, 0, 0, 0. With brute force, it turns out that out of the 36,760,655,568 unique combinations possible in the second replay, 22,536,306 have means that are greater than or equal to 32,100.