| Line 29: |
Line 29: |
| | == "Midterm" Elections == | | == "Midterm" Elections == |
| | | | |
| − | The Tuesday after the first Monday in November this year is November 2, and that is Election Day. All 435 House seats are up for election, and at least 33 out of 100 (U.S.) Senate seats are likewise on the ballot. (Sometimes more Senate seats are on the ballot due to special elections to fill vacancies; without vacancies the number would be 33 one year, 33 two years later, and 34 two years after that.) The president is not on the ballot because this year, 2010, is not divisible by 4; the presidential term is 4 years and Barack Obama was elected to that position in 2008.
| + | On November 2nd, all 435 House seats are up for election, and at least 33 out of 100 (U.S.) Senate seats are likewise on the ballot. (Sometimes more Senate seats are on the ballot due to special elections to fill vacancies; without vacancies the number would be 33 one year, 33 two years later, and 34 two years after that.) The president is not on the ballot because this year, 2010, is not divisible by 4; the presidential term is 4 years and Barack Obama was elected to that position in 2008. |
| | | | |
| | Due to gerrymandering, however, less than 100 out of the 435 House seats are "in play," such that either party could win it. Gerrymandering is one many new terms you will learn as part of this course. Its name comes from a cartoon making fun of Governor Eldridge Gerry of Massachusetts in 1812, who signed into law a redistricting for state that used odd shapes in order to help his political party be elected. This is possible because voting patterns become predictable over time: many neighborhoods are known to vote heavily Democratic or heavily Republican based on prior elections. | | Due to gerrymandering, however, less than 100 out of the 435 House seats are "in play," such that either party could win it. Gerrymandering is one many new terms you will learn as part of this course. Its name comes from a cartoon making fun of Governor Eldridge Gerry of Massachusetts in 1812, who signed into law a redistricting for state that used odd shapes in order to help his political party be elected. This is possible because voting patterns become predictable over time: many neighborhoods are known to vote heavily Democratic or heavily Republican based on prior elections. |
| Line 35: |
Line 35: |
| | For example, San Francisco is a heavily Democratic area, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi represents a "safe seat" there. Indeed, over 335 out of the 435 House seats represent districts that are safely Republican or safely Democratic. In those districts, the only way to defeat an incumbent (the person in office running for reelection) is to defeat him in the primary. | | For example, San Francisco is a heavily Democratic area, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi represents a "safe seat" there. Indeed, over 335 out of the 435 House seats represent districts that are safely Republican or safely Democratic. In those districts, the only way to defeat an incumbent (the person in office running for reelection) is to defeat him in the primary. |
| | | | |
| | + | With the advent of the internet, there is up-to-the minute analysis of the likely outcomes in every election. One site, "Realclearpolitics" (you might consider that website name to be an "oxymoron", or self-contradictory term, because politics is rarely "clear") provided this analysis on August 1: |
| | + | |
| | + | *U.S. House of Representatives: 202 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats in the election, 201 seats likely to be retained or won by Republicans in the election, and 32 "toss-up" seats that can be won by either side. |
| | + | |
| | + | *U.S. Senate: 49 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats, 43 likely to be retained or won by Republicans, and 8 "toss-up" seats. Note that in the U.S. Senate there are two "Independents", but they vote for Democratic control so they are treated as Democratic. |
| | + | |
| | + | *State Governors: 14 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats, 24 likely to be retained or won by Republicans, and 11 seats are "toss-ups" |
| | concept of "political machines." | | concept of "political machines." |
| − |
| |
| | | | |
| | polling, and the influence of polling | | polling, and the influence of polling |