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United States presidential election, 2012 (view source)

Revision as of 23:05, June 10, 2011

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→‎Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination: New third column - "trending ..."

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!Pros

!Cons

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!~~[[Fox News]] Exposure~~

+

!Trending ...

|-

|[[Mitt Romney]]

|First runner-up in 2008, business experience, Republican governor of a Democratic state, cut taxes and the deficit, prodigious fundraiser and tireless campaigner, polling at 40% in the key early primary state of [[New Hampshire]], credited for helping [[Scott Brown]] win an upset victory for the seat long held by [[Ted Kennedy]]. Likely to be endorsed by [[Chris Christie]], [[Trent Lott]], [[Rick Santorum]], [[Marsha Blackburn]], [[Jim Talent]], etc. Only 26% of voters said they would '''''never''''' vote for him, which is the lowest negative of any major Republican candidate.<ref name="Quinnipiac">http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1595</ref>

|Once supported [[abortion]] and [[civil unions]], criticized by the [[Tea Party Express]] chairwoman and others due to his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which included mandatory insurance and taxpayer-funded abortion; struggles in Iowa and won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008.

−

|~~Sometimes on Fox~~

+

|Gaining as Newt struggles

|-

|[[Michele Bachmann]]

|A [[movement conservative]] who "knocked the ball out of the park" with her nationally televised response to Obama's [[State of the Union]] address in January 2011, Bachmann is increasingly popular with the [[Tea Party movement]]; she is a strong fundraiser and won a stunning 52-40% landslide in 2010 in a liberal-leaning district in [[Minnesota]]. Did very well at [[CPAC]] in Feb. 2011.

|As with [[Ronald Reagan]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; she's said she's not running for president this soon<ref name="Bachmann"/> and pulled out of the "Values Voter Summit" ([[Family Research Council]] convention) straw poll in September 2010; has never won statewide office; not picking up strong [[Tea Party]] support, as [[Ron Paul]] did not support her for a House leadership position and did not join her [[Tea Party]] caucus.

−

|~~Rarely on Fox anymore, which prefers Newt~~

+

|Gaining as Palin dithers

|-

|[[Newt Gingrich]]

|Articulate, credited with 1994 landslide, balanced the federal budget in the Clinton era, leader in fundraising, likely to obtain endorsement of older "right to life" groups against Mitt;<ref name="April%2525202010%252520Fundraising">http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2010/04/19/sarah-palin-lags-in-2012-fundraising-primary.html</ref> has one-sided promotion by the [[Fox News Channel]] and the [[WSJ]], who will likely criticize his opponent [[Mitt Romney]]; Gingrich's record of passing [[conservative]] legislation as [[Speaker of the House]] is remarkably strong, including welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]]. He also had the courage to shut down the government.

|Lost one notch when his entire campaign staff resigned en masse on June 9th; he has previously endorsed [[liberal]] ideas like "[[cap-and-trade]]" ([[global warming]] hoax) and a [[Con Con]]; resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of [[Bill Clinton]]; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a women 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office; Sarah Palin is suggesting that she may not pull out and this would prevent Newt from defeating Mitt.

−

|~~Promoted almost daily by Fox~~

+

|Losing ground as his senior staff jumps ship

|-

|[[Jeb Bush]]

|Bush-adviser [[Dick Cheney]] predicts that a Republican will become president in 2012, which would force Jeb to wait until 2020 if he doesn't run now; Jeb is giving interviews as though he were a candidate and can enter the race late and still win the nomination; [[George W. Bush]]'s book sold far better than expectations, making the name an asset again; Jeb could unite the Republican Party with a late candidacy; Jeb is less likely to wait for 2016 as [[Obama]]'s approval ratings fall and a Republican victory seems likely in 2012; Jeb is more conservative than his brother [[George W. Bush]], and sure to win pivotal [[Florida]]; Jeb has already criticized Palin as a rival candidate might;<ref>In a Newsmax interview in February 2010, Jeb criticized Palin by saying, "my belief is in 2010 and 2012, public leaders need to have intellectual curiosity." [http://www.newser.com/story/81720/jeb-bush-sarah-palin-not-intellectual-enough.html]</ref> Jeb published an editorial on Jan. 3, 2011 taking credit for saving Florida [[public schools]] with vouchers.<ref>http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2011/jan/03/jeb-bush/jeb-bush-touts-education-gains-wall-street-journal/</ref>

|Polls unusually poorly (54-34%) against [[Barack Obama]];<ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/14/obama-would-beat-jeb-bush-big-says-poll/</ref> Jeb says he does not intend to run in 2012, when he could still be tagged with negatives via George; not liked by many Tea Partiers; might wait to run when Hillary runs.

−

|~~Rarely appears~~ on ~~Fox~~

+

|Standing on the sidelines

|-

|[[Sarah Palin]]

|Empathetic, attracts crowds, personally [[pro-life]], fiscal conservative, popular, track record of supporting upset victories in primaries; has a popular television series and book tour that emphasizes the grassroots rather than the "inside the Beltway" mentality.

|It's difficult to take someone who relies so heavily on [[Facebook]] seriously; even [[liberal]] [[Hollywood]] preferred ''The King's Speech'' at the [[Oscars]]. Her taxation policies were somewhat liberal.<ref>http://community.adn.com/node/112712</ref> Appointed a former [[Planned Parenthood]] board member to the [[Alaska]] Supreme Court and inexplicably resigned early as governor; lags in fundraising despite publicity,<ref name="April%2525202010%252520Fundraising"/> came in a disappointing fifth in the [[Values Voter Summit]] in September 2010 and fared badly at [[CPAC]]. Several of her prominent 2010 candidates (Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell) struck out on Nov. 2nd, and recently many Republicans from [[George W. Bush]] to [[Peggy Noonan]] have been critical of her.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/Vox-News/2010/1106/Republican-establishment-takes-on-Sarah-Palin</ref> 58% of American voters in a May poll said they would '''''never''''' vote for her.<ref name="Quinnipiac"/>

−

|~~Promoted heavily by Fox~~

+

|Enjoying attention without yet running

|-

|[[Tim Pawlenty]]

|Young; popular in his home state of [[Minnesota]] (but never won with more than 50% of the vote); benefits from exodus of the leadership from Newt's campaign on June 9th.

|Still not well known outside of Minnesota; supported the liberal [[cap and trade]]; accepted stimulus funds after arguing against them; lacks a socially conservative base or any appeal that would attract support away from the front-runners; arranged a meeting with a liberal medical society in 2003 in order to cave into the pro-[[abortion]] side by downplaying medical harm caused by abortion,<ref>http://www.lifenews.com/2003/12/30/state-281/</ref> despite hard-fought passage of the Woman's Right to Know Act mandating disclosure; an ex-Catholic and that may not play well with Catholic swing voters.

−

|~~Sometimes on Fox~~

+

|Gaining, picked up one key Newt supporter

|-

|[[Marco Rubio]]

|The Republican Party will want this freshman [[U.S. Senator]] in the primary debates, which he's then likely to win because of his charisma, stronger stance on social issues, and [[Tea Party]] appeal; in the general election he would pull [[Florida]] and many Hispanic voters away from the Democrats. Both of his parents were Cuban exiles seeking asylum in the U.S. at the time of his birth in Miami, making him an inspiring, uniquely American success story.

|Could face the liberal [[double standard]] on two fronts: 1) what's OK for Obama (e.g., inexperience) is somehow not OK for a [[conservative]]. 2) Liberals who have been deriding the strict definition of "natural born citizen" which some conservatives have been applying to Obama might also turn around and use the same logic with Rubio, claiming that his non-citizen parents invalidate his natural-born status. <br />Some Republican voters may think he's really running to be selected as Vice President.

−

|~~Did not seek Palin endorsement; sometimes on Fox~~

+

|Probably running for VP

|-

|[[Rand Paul]]

|Could be the next [[Ronald Reagan]]; is the heir-apparent to massive support for [[Ron Paul]]; won the [[U.S. Senate]] seat by a 56-44% landslide in 2010, despite an intense effort by [[liberals]] to smear and defeat him; is 100% [[pro-life]]. Failure of Congress to cut spending enhances likelihood that voters will turn to someone strong on reducing government. Could inherit the support for his father, who could hand off the campaign to Rand.

|Rand, immensely popular after his landslide victory for Senate, will not run for president unless his dad drops his own campaign for the same office. Rand could first campaign for his dad and then become the candidate if voters think he has a better opportunity to win, but time is running out for Rand to assert himself as the candidate in 2012.

−

|~~Other stations have him on more than Fox does~~

+

|Backup if voters think his dad shouldn't run

|-

|[[Ron Paul]]

|Won the [[CPAC]] poll, terrific on economic issues, is strong in national polls, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican

|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; opposed Bachmann for a leadership position; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office.

−

|~~Excluded by Fox because he opposes the war~~

+

|Gaining ground as economy crumbles

|-

|[[Jim DeMint]]

|Strong support by social conservatives, libertarians,<ref>Jim Demint has the best favorable-unfavorable rating of anyone at CPAC 2010.</ref> Tea Party, and evangelicals; a tenacious advocate willing to criticize Obama

|Stated at a conservative conference in July 2010 that he is not running for president, but after [[Mike Pence]] pulled out in Jan. 2011 Jim DeMint is showing interest again, before announcing again in late March that he is not running; as a Southern conservative, he would need to work hard to gain support in Iowa and New Hampshire, the key early primary states<ref>http://politics.theatlantic.com/2010/02/the_2012_dark_horse_is.php</ref>

−

|~~Often on Fox~~

+

|Considering running

|-

|[[Rick Perry]]

|Ranking improved on June 9 because Newt's campaign leadership quit; Perry is a conservative-talking governor who has run [[Texas]] for a decade (since [[George W. Bush]] became president); crushed [[RINO]] [[Kay Bailey Hutchison]] in the 2010 primary and then won a landslide in the general election against a popular opponent, carrying others to victory on his strong coattails; has a stellar jobs record in his State and which he can contrast with liberal-run states like [[California]], [[Nevada]], [[Illinois]], and [[New York]]

|More conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed [[RINO]] [[Rudy Giuliani]] in 2008; tried to force all schoolgirls to receive the [[HPV vaccine]]; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing [[abortion]]; and responded to a reporter's question on Dec. 24, 2010 that he's definitely not running.

−

|~~Rarely on Fox~~

+

|Gaining as he considers running

|-

|[[Chris Christie]]

|Leads [[Barack Obama]] in Zogby's polling (January 2011), takes on the [[public school]] teachers' unions and is a fiscal reformer who puts liberals in their place, has an unscripted style and appearance that is a refreshing alternative to the Teleprompter President.

|Picked a [[pro-abortion]] running mate when he ran for governor, and has little experience with national issues; repeatedly says he is not running; campaigned for [[RINO]] [[Mike Castle]] in [[Delaware]] who was then defeated; neither added [[New Jersey]] to one of the lawsuits against [[ObamaCare]] nor joined an [[amicus brief]] against it; ''will probably support [[Mitt Romney]]''.

−

|~~Promoted heavily by Fox~~

+

|Losing popularity in NJ as he fails to build a strong team

|-

|[[Herman Cain]]

|Former Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem, and apparently is running. <ref>[http://dailycaller.com/2010/12/06/herman-cain-2012-exploratory-committee-could-come-soon/ Herman Cain: 2012 exploratory committee could come soon, DailyCaller, December 6, 2010]</ref>

|Not well known outside the conservative sphere of influence.

−

|~~Rarely on Fox~~

+

|Maintaining his ranking

|-

|[[Mike Huckabee]]

|Pro-life in rhetoric, pro-Second Amendment and pro-Bible; strong in polling, particularly among evangelicals

|Announced on May 14th that he's not running; was stuck at 20-30% without any way to gain broader support needed to win; could be a [[stalking horse]] for Newt; also supporter of big government, as governor raised taxes and increased state spending, released man who later killed officers; disliked by [[CPAC]]-types and by [[Club for Growth]]; might decide to sit this one out;<ref>CBS: [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20044329-503544.html Signs mount that Huckabee won't enter 2012 race]</ref> supported the cave-in by the Republican leadership to continue funding [[Planned Parenthood]] (the nation's largest [[abortion]] provider) as part of the budget deal in April 2011. Has ruled himself out of contention.<ref>http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-05-15-republican-huckabee-president_n.htm</ref>

−

|~~Promoted by Fox with his own show~~

+

|Losing ground and relevancy

|-

|[[Donald Trump]]

|Tied for number 1 in [[Gallup Poll]];<ref>As of April 22, 2011.</ref> forced Obama's to take seriously voters' concerns over his birth certificate, and is also willing to criticize liberal media; has business savvy and resources as a billionaire; is well-known.<ref>[http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/05/trump-seriously-considering-presidential-bid/?test=latestnews Trump 'Seriously Considering' 2012 Presidential Bid, FOXNews, October 5, 2010]</ref> His unscripted, abrasive and arrogant style may be just what voters want. Not a career politician helps his cause.

|Said he's not running.<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05/16/trump-declines-run-president/</ref> Criticized for his ego and has never held elected office. Needs to explain his previous support of liberal policies such as socialized medicine,<ref>http://www.slate.com/id/2291263/</ref> and is starting to look one-dimensional. A reliable poll (Quinnipiac) found that 58% of voters said they would '''''never''''' vote for Trump.<ref name="Quinnipiac"/>

−

|~~Sometimes on Fox~~

+

|Declining in support

|-

|[[Allen West]]

|'America First' conservative patriot, Lt. Col West knows leadership from experience. He won the Florida [[U.S. House of Representatives]] seat in the [[2010 Midterm Elections]], and kept a high profile ever since. Sports a crew cut, rises above petty [[inside the Beltway]] bickering, and carries a camouflage bag rather than a briefcase

|New to national politics, not well known and maybe a future presidential candidate beyond 2012.

−

|~~Rarely on Fox~~

+

|A terrific congressman

|-

|[[Steve King]]

|A conservative Iowa congressman who could win the [[Iowa caucuses]]; resonates well with independents; recommended by Bachmann<ref name="Bachmann">http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/app/blogs/politically_speaking/?p=1205</ref>

|Not well known yet; has never won statewide office.

−

|~~Excluded by Fox~~

+

|Seems to be staying in the House

|-

|[[Rick Santorum]]

|Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010

|His all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, and Santorum endorsed Romney for President in 2008; could simply be a [[stalking horse]] for Romney

−

|~~Promoted on Fox~~

+

|Stuck at only a few percent in the polls

|-

|[[Ken Cuccinelli]]

|Has won statewide office. Leader in challenging [[ObamaCare]], advancing [[pro-life]] principles, and opposing the [[global warming]] hoax, including investigating Liberal [[University of Virginia]]'s involvement in the [[Climategate]] scandal. Wants to stop the homosexual agenda prevalent at the University of Virginia and other Virginia universities.

|Only 42 years old, he'll probably become governor of Virginia before running for president. Not as frequent a speaker at Tea Party events as others, such as Steve King and Michele Bachmann. Also, Cuccinelli may be more influential on domestic policy in his current position than a president is.

−

|~~On Fox because he's been so newsworthy~~

+

|Busy achieving good things in his current job

|-

|[[Bobby Jindal]]

|Conservative Governor of [[Louisiana]], strong critic of [[Obama]]'s handling of the [[Gulf oil spill]] in the summer of 2010

|Not well known yet; says he's not running for president.

−

|~~Promoted somewhat by Fox`~~

+

|Made a good statement on birth certificate issue

|-

|[[Mitch Daniels]]

|Signed a law that defunds [[Planned Parenthood]], has been an effective [[Rust Belt]] governor and critic of the Obama administration, being promoted heavily by [[neoconservatives]]

|Stated in May 2011 that he's not running for president; sided with [[Democrats]] in 2011 in opposing [[right-to-work laws|right-to-work legislation]], unknown nationally, criticized when he tried to downplay significance of social issues, not telegenic, lacks a socially conservative base, and his state budget relies heavily on [[gambling]] revenue

−

|~~Promoted by Fox; featured first on its "12 for 2012" series.~~

+

|Losing ground since he announced he's not running

|-

|[[Mike Pence]]

|Communicates a very strong conservative message: "a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order." Won straw poll held at the [[Values Voter Summit]] in September 2010. On Nov. 3rd, gave up his House leadership position. Has since announced a run for Governor of Indiana in 2012.

|Announced on Jan. 27, 2011 that he's not running for president; previously he unsuccessfully proposed a "comprehensive" immigration plan that was widely criticized by conservatives; lacks legislative achievements; not well-known and has never won statewide office; either he or Huckabee could become a stalking horse for Newt Gingrich with respect to evangelical voters in Iowa

−

|~~Sometimes~~ on ~~Fox~~

+

|Focusing on the Indiana governorship

|-

|[[Todd Akin]]

|A [[movement conservative]] from Missouri, which he serves as a congressman

|Running to win a [[U.S. Senate]] seat from a [[liberal]] instead

−

|~~Rarely allowed on Fox`~~

+

|Gaining in ability to defeat an incumbent liberal senator

|-

|[[Bob McDonnell]]

|Won landslide election as [[Virginia]] governor; has Obama's height

|Not widely known yet, but gave Republican response to State of the Union; seemed more conservative as a candidate than as governor

−

|~~Rarely allowed on Fox~~

+

|Falling into obscurity

|-

|[[Gary Johnson]]

|Former [[libertarian]] two-term governor of [[New Mexico]], he has been recommended by [[Ron Paul]] if Dr. Paul does not run for president; Johnson is a strong advocate of less government.

|Like other libertarians but unlike most Republicans, Johnson favors legalizing marijuana, expanding legal [[immigration]] and allowing same-sex unions. Given the likelihood that Ron Paul will run, there is very little potential support for Gary Johnson in this election cycle.

−

|~~Excluded by Fox, which opposes libertarians~~

+

|Cannot get much support with Ron Paul in the same race

|-

|[[Rudy Giuliani]]

|Widely respected for his post-9/11 leadership in New York City

|Struck out completely as a candidate in 2008; very weak on important social issues; cross-dressing for comedic purposes when it suited him

−

|~~Frequently on Fox~~

+

|A throwback to an era and issues that matter less now

|-

|[[Dick Cheney]]

|Prominent and consistent opposition to Obama

|Of dubious health; has explicitly disavowed interest in running

−

|~~Has been on Fox; daughter is a commentator for Fox~~

+

|Not running

|-

|[[John Bolton]]

|Expert on foreign policy and national security issues <ref>[http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9I4TTT82&show_article=1 POLITICAL INSIDER: John Bolton weighs a WH run, Breitbart, September 10, 2010]</ref>

|Polarizing figure that Democrats refused to appoint to permanent UN position

−

|~~Frequently on Fox; both focus on foreign policy~~

+

|

|-

|[[Jon Huntsman, Jr.]]

|Has foreign policy and executive experience. Appealing to moderates, although this is because he holds numerous liberal stances.

|Worked in the Obama administration; Criticized the [[economic stimulus package]] as not being big enough, favors Comprehensive Immigration Reform, supports civil unions, and is a believer in man-made global warming; could simply be a [[Utah]] decoy used by [[Team Newt]] to siphon support from [[Mitt Romney]]

−

|

+

|Not getting much support

|-

|[[Fred Thompson]]

|Former Republican Senator from [[Tennessee]], former presidential candidate, has a loyal following

|Hollywood type, sided with McCain in campaign finance laws that the Supreme Court overturned.

−

|~~Sometimes on Fox~~

+

|

|-

|[[Scott Brown]]

|Proven ability to appeal to moderate voters even in a blue state

|Inexperience; already voting with the Democrats in the Senate; voted to repeal [[DADT]]

−

|~~Has been on Fox~~

+

|

|-

|[[Haley Barbour]]

|Rose in ranking based on the victory of his choice as the new [[RNC]] chairman;<ref>http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jan/14/barbour-defeats-boehner-proxy-battle-control-rnc-s/</ref> has a [[conservative]] record as governor of [[Mississippi]]; was a consummate lobbyist and could raise many tens of millions for a campaign.

|Announced in late April 2011 that he is not running; also, rarely seen at conservative conferences, and a Republican from the [[Deep South]] may have trouble attracting independent voters.

−

|~~Rarely on Fox~~

+

|

|-

|[[John Thune]]

|Defeated [[Tom Daschle]], relatively conservative voting record for a senator; also taller than Obama, and enjoys broad support

|Announced on Feb. 22, 2011 that he's not running; may lack an essential "fire in the belly";<ref>http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/assessing-john-thunes-2012-cha.html?referrer=emaillink</ref> voted for TARP financial bailout<ref>http://hoghouseblog.com/2009/09/01/thune-wants-to-end-bailout-he-voted-for/</ref> and McCain-Feingold campaign finance; no-show at some conservative events; hasn't effectively criticized Obama; could simply become a stalking horse candidate for Gingrich

−

|~~Rarely on Fox, but featured in a cover story by the ''Weekly Standard''~~

+

|

|-

|[[Jan Brewer]]

|In 2010, stood up to [[Hillary Clinton]] and [[Barack Obama]] on issue of [[illegal aliens]]

|Caved in to the [[liberals]] in vetoing legislation requiring a birth certificate to get on the presidential ballot for Arizona in 2012; if Brewer ever was conservative, she seems increasingly less so

−

|~~Was often on Fox during 2010 due to Arizona lawsuit~~

+

|Not even conservatives support her after all her vetoes of good bills this year

−

|-

−

~~|[[Fred Karger]]~~

−

~~|Wealth~~ of ~~experience in the private sector, much more than Obama ever had. His homosexuality may which may attract some right-leaning liberals.~~

−

~~|Openly gay, which will not play well the majority of the Republican Party. Supports Gay Marriage.~~

−

~~|Not on Fox~~

|-

|[[George Pataki]]

|Well known former 3-term Gov. of New York. Has a track record of tax cuts

|[[RINO]] candidate, [[Pro-abortion]], had health issues in the past

−

|~~Sometimes on Fox~~

+

|

|-

|[[Peter King]]

|Conservative congressman from New York that supports [[Pro-life]], energy independence, free trade, expand border fence, battles Muslim extremists in the USA by Homeland Security position.

|Fiscal conservatism lacking: voted for TARP, Cash for Clunkers, CHIP

−

|~~Sometimes on Fox~~

+

|

|-

|[[Thad McCotter]]

|Congressman from Michigan that is a fiscal and social conservative

|Not well known

−

|~~Sometimes on Fox but only on satire show Red Eye with Greg Gutfeld~~

+

|

|}

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