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User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds (view source)
Revision as of 03:12, November 3, 2012
, 03:12, November 3, 2012It's been a while, apologies
'''Probability to end of January 2012'''
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|-
|-
! Candidate
! Candidate
! Probability at 11 Dec 2011
! 11 Dec 2011
! Probability at 17 Dec 2011
! 17 Dec 2011
! Probability at 26 Dec 2011
! 26 Dec 2011
! Probability at 1 Jan 2012
! 1 Jan 2012
! Probability at 5 Jan 2012
! 5 Jan 2012
! Probability at 11 Jan 2012
! 11 Jan 2012
! 18 Jan 2012
! 23 Jan 2012
|-
|-
| Newt Gingrich
| Newt Gingrich
| 2.9%
| 2.9%
| 2.7%
| 2.7%
| 2.4%
| 10.1%
|-
|-
| Mitt Romney
| Mitt Romney
| 33.2%
| 33.2%
| 34.1%
| 34.1%
| 36.7%
| 30.3%
|-
|-
| Ron Paul
| Ron Paul
| 3.7%
| 3.7%
| 3.4%
| 3.4%
| 3.2%
| 3.1%
|-
|-
| Jon Huntsman
| Jon Huntsman
| 1.9%
| 1.9%
| 1.2%
| 1.2%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
|-
|-
| Rick Perry
| Rick Perry
| 1.2%
| 1.2%
| 0.7%
| 0.7%
| 0.7%
| 0.0%
|-
|-
| Michele Bachmann
| Michele Bachmann
| 1.0%
| 1.0%
| 1.1%
| 1.1%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 4.1%
| 4.1%
| 3.0%
| 3.0%
| 2.1%
| 1.4%
|-
|-
| Rudy Giuliani
| Rudy Giuliani
| 0.3%
| 0.3%
| 0.3%
| 0.3%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| '''47.0%'''
| '''47.0%'''
| '''45.1%'''
| '''45.1%'''
| '''45.1%'''
| '''44.9%'''
|-
|-
| Barack Obama
| Barack Obama
| 50.5%
| 50.5%
| 52.7%
| 52.7%
| 52.7%
| 52.9%
|-
|-
| Hilary Clinton
| Hilary Clinton
| 1.7%
| 1.7%
| 2.1%
| 2.1%
| 1.8%
| 1.8%
| 1.8%
| 1.8%
|-
|-
| 0.6%
| 0.6%
| 0.6%
| 0.6%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
| '''52.6%'''
| '''52.6%'''
| '''54.5%'''
| '''54.5%'''
| '''54.5%'''
| '''54.7%'''
|-
|-
| Gary Johnson
| Gary Johnson
|
|
|
|
| 0.4%
| 0.4%
| 0.4%
| 0.4%
| 0.4%
| 0.4%
| '''0.4%'''
| '''0.4%'''
| '''0.4%'''
| '''0.4%'''
| '''0.4%'''
| '''0.4%'''
|}
'''Probability from February 2012'''
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Candidate
! 1 Feb 2012
! 8 Feb 2012
! 11 Feb 2012
! 20 Feb 2012
! 29 Feb 2012
! 9 March 2012
! 11 April 2012
! 19 April 2012
! 12 May 2012
|-
| Newt Gingrich
| 4.3%
| 2.1%
| 2.0%
| 1.7%
| 1.6%
| 1.5%
| 0.7%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
|-
| Mitt Romney
| 36.4%
| 33.2%
| 29.9%
| 26.7%
| 27.2%
| 28.7%
| 32.1%
| 34.0%
| 33.5%
|-
| Ron Paul
| 1.8%
| 1.6%
| 1.5%
| 1.8%
| 1.7%
| 1.3%
| 1.5%
| 1.8%
| 1.8%
|-
| Rick Santorum
| 0.9%
| 5.1%
| 6.9%
| 7.8%
| 5.9%
| 4.2%
| 1.3%
| 0.0%
| 0.0%
|-
| Jeb Bush
|
|
|
|
| 1.7%
| 1.3%
| 1.0%
| 1.4%
| 0.0%
|-
| '''Republican Total'''
| '''43.4%'''
| '''42.0%'''
| '''40.3%'''
| '''37.9%'''
| '''38.2%'''
| '''37.0%'''
| '''36.6%'''
| '''37.1%'''
| '''35.3%'''
|-
| Barack Obama
| 54.9%
| 56.3%
| 57.9%
| 60.3%
| 60.1%
| 61.9%
| 62.1%
| 62.9%
| 62.1%
|-
| Hilary Clinton
| 1.7%
| 1.7%
| 1.8%
| 1.8%
| 1.7%
| 1.1%
| 1.3%
| 0.0%
| 2.6%
|-
| '''Democrat Total'''
| '''56.6%'''
| '''58.0%'''
| '''59.7%'''
| '''62.1%'''
| '''61.8%'''
| '''63.0%'''
| '''63.4%'''
| '''62.9%'''
| '''64.7%'''
|}
'''Probability from August 2012'''
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Candidate
! 9 Aug 2012
! 16 Sept 2012
! 26 Sept 2012
! 3 November 2012
|-
| Mitt Romney
| 34.4%
| 27.7%
| 21.7%
| 22.5%
|-
| Barack Obama
| 65.6%
| 72.3%
| 78.3%
| 77.5%
|}
|}
(Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])
(Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])