| − | '''''The next elections are caucuses on February 4 in [[Nevada]] and [[Maine]]'''''. The next '''''debate''''' is scheduled for February 22. | + | '''''The next elections are caucuses on February 4 in [[Nevada]] and [[Maine]]'''''.<ref>For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> The next '''''debate''''' is scheduled for February 22. |
| | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is nearly 9% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 12 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. | | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is nearly 9% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 12 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. |
| − | For the Republican nomination, in early December it seemed to become a two-man race between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]], but then [[Ron Paul]] ran devastatingly negative political ads against Gingrich in [[Iowa]] that dropped Newt to fourth place there.<ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref> Still, Romney was unable to attain a commanding lead. About 1,214 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except for Florida, which will be winner-take-all but only half its delegates will count).<ref>Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but Texas is going to be proportional anyway.</ref> It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of delegates before June 2012.
| + | It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of delegates before June 2012, and no candidate has been able to win more than 50% of a primary. Increasingly the race is a two-man contest between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]]. About 1,214 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida seeks winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31).<ref>Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but Texas will probably be proportional anyway.</ref><ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref> |