American Government Lecture One

To enroll, see Conservapedia:American Government Fall 2012.

Welcome to this course in American Government & Politics! The full title is "Government" and "Politics" because it is impossible to understand one without the other. Government policies are dictated by elected officials, and they care most about being reelected. To understand why government acts in certain ways, it is necessary to understand elections first.

Tonight, September 6, 2012, President Barack Obama will accept the nomination by the Democratic Party for his candidacy to be reelected as president of the United States. As is customary, he will deliver an acceptance speech that tries to persuade millions of Americans to reelect him. A week earlier, on August 30th, Mitt Romney accepted the nomination by the Republican Party to be elected to this same position. In every year divisible by four, including this 2012, the United States elects (or reelects) a president. At the same time, officially the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November ("Election Day"), American voters also elect the entire House of Representatives (435 officers) and one-third of the U.S. Senate. (One third of the U.S. Senate is elected every two years, such that by every six years the entire Senate has been elected.) Many state offices are also on the ballot on Election Day.

Unlike most nations, American government is run by persons who stand for election or reelection on fixed days determined by law, and every political leader focuses on that election the way that sports stars and fans focus on the Super Bowl, the World Series, or the Olympics. Billions of dollars are spent in political advertisements on television, radio and the internet, and in mailings sent to nearly every household in American. in attempts by political campaigns to win. This is more exciting than sports contests, and the outcomes of political struggles make an enormous difference in which direction our Nation goes in the future.

There are three branches of government, and at the national ("federal") level only the first two stand for election:

• Executive branch (president, the military, and nearly all federal government agencies)
• Legislative branch (Congress and its staff)
• Judicial branch (federal courts, including hundreds of federal judges and their staff and the U.S. Supreme Court)

In addition, there is state government, which is completely independent of the federal government in our unique system of dual sovereigns. There is also free enterprise (the free market), which is regulated by government but has an independent influence on Elections, as the economy has good times and bad and thereby affects how people vote.

Difference Between Politics and History

History is about the past; politics is about the future. Unlike history, politics is constantly changing. In some ways, politics is similar to a game in sports: what happened on the last football play or baseball pitch is not likely to be copied for the next play or pitch. Instead, the way the game is played is constantly changing. How an election was won two or four years ago is probably not how it will be won next time.

But history can be a guide in predicting the future, and the presidential election between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama is being compared to two prior presidential elections:

• the 1980 presidential election between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter
• the 1948 presidential election between Tom Dewey and Harry Truman

In both 1980 and 1948, the economy was doing terribly, as it is now. In both 1980 and 1948, an unpopular incumbent president was running for reelection, just as Barack Obama has low approval ratings today. In 1980, the Republican challenger Ronald Reagan won by a landslide. But in 1948, the Republican challenger Tom Dewey lost to the incumbent Harry Truman. Will this year's election be more like 1980, or more like 1948? What do you think?

Major components of an election

The five major components of a modern election are:

• candidates background, positions, speeches, and debates
• the position of the media (television and newspapers) about the candidates
• the position of interest groups, such as pro-life groups or unions, about the candidates
• the amount of money spent in favor or against candidates
• influence exerted by polling organizations in telling the public who is likely to win

In the contest between Romney and Obama, polling indicates a close race with the public nearly equally divided in choosing between the candidates. For example, the polling done by "Rasmussen" (a New Jersey resident) says that Romney is supported by 48% compared with only 44% who support Obama.

Rasmussen polling indicated that Romney received a "bounce" (improvement in his poll numbers) due to the Republican National Convention the prior week, including Romney's acceptance speech.

Does that mean that Romney will win the election? Not at all. It's customary for presidential candidates to receive a "bounce" in the polls after their political party's national convention. Indeed, national conventions by political parties are staged events designed to boost the popularity of the candidate receiving the nomination. Nearly everything at the convention is scripted to make the party and the candidate as good as possible.

Also, Rasmussen polling typically reports more public support for the Republican candidate than polls by other groups show. Polls by other groups show Obama to have a slight lead over Romney.

Romney's Acceptance Speech

Polls are surveys of voters, which provide details about which groups support a candidate and which ones do not. In most elections, there is a "gender gap" between men and women, such that men tend to prefer one candidate while women tend to prefer the other. In Romney v. Obama, Romney has a lead among male voters, but Obama has a lead among women voters.

Polling also reveals that while most disapprove of the job performance by Obama, he is more "likable" than Romney is. In fact, Romney has a particularly low "likability" rating: only 26% of likely voters considered Romney to be likable prior to the Republican National Convention in August 2012.

In light of the polling information, Romney's acceptance speech attempted to make himself more "likable" and to try to increase his popularity by women voters. Here are some examples from his speech:

“

I knew that her [Mitt Romney's wife Ann's] job as a mom was harder than mine. And I knew without question, that her job as a mom was a lot more important than mine.

”

“

[Romney and a friend] started a new business called Bain Capital. The only problem was, while WE believed in ourselves, nobody else did. We were young and had never done this before and we almost didn’t get off the ground. In those days, sometimes I wondered if I had made a really big mistake.

”

The text of Obama's acceptance speech will be posted online Thursday night, September 7. Can you find statements in it designed to boost his poll numbers with any particular group?

Politics as an Iceberg

The average person does not realize that politics is like an iceberg: 90% of it is hidden from view. Far more goes on behind the scenes, outside of public awareness, then most people realize.

Statements by candidates are the product of much planning by a "team" that includes speechwriters, pollsters, consultants and others. Politics is team sport that is never fair to individuals. You might be the greatest wide receiver to play the game of football, but if the running back on your team repeatedly fumbles the ball, then you will lose. If you play in a game where the referees are against you on every play, then you will also lose no matter how good your team is. If a massive snowstorm occurs in the middle of the game just as your team is about to win, then you may lose through no fault of your own.

In American politics, the two biggest "teams" are the Republicans and the Democrats. Problems with one member of the team affect the ability of other members of the team to win. The "referees" are the media, and they have a big impact also. So does "weather" conditions like the state of the economy, or foreign relations.

This model for politics as a team sport goes far beyond Republicans versus Democrats. Within each political party there are also alliances and teams that form to help candidates win nominations by the party.

Attempts to win elections are called "campaigns" because there are many contributing forces that determine the outcome. Much of the activity is fun. There are campaign contributions to the candidate for his use in printing materials, paying workers, and buying ads. There are volunteer efforts such as "phone-banking" (calling voters on lists), "door-to-door" (walking up to houses and knocking on doors in support of a candidate), "literature drops" (such as handing out campaign literature at a subway station or bus stop), passing out bumper stickers, and attending public meetings to discuss issues relating to the election. There are also "independent expenditures," in which other groups buy advertisements without any approval or coordination with the candidate.

Due to an important decision known as Citizens United by the U.S. Supreme Court in January 2010, corporations can now spend money directly to elect or defeat a candidate. Corporations may not donate money to a candidate's campaign, but they spend millions of dollars on campaign ads urging voters to elect or defeat someone. As a result, "Super PACs" have developed for the first time in 2012, which can raise hundreds of millions of dollars from big corporations and then spend the money to elect or defeat a candidate and influence the outcome of an election.

So when a candidate wins or loses, it is really his side that wins or loses. His opponent may have put together a stronger team, or had better strategy, or the "referee" (media) may have been biased, or events outside of the control of the candidate (such as the economy) may have determined the outcome. Often, but not always, the side that raises and spends the most money wins, because many voters are influenced by ads and mailings they receive.

Why Participate?

Many Americans fail to participate in the political process; they do not help any "team". They are too lazy, or fail to understand the process, or fail to see the beneits in participating. They are making a mistake.

There is no "free lunch." Participation in the political process is necessary just as exercise, a good diet, or going to church is needed. Participating in politics is beneficial both to the individual and to the nation.

One of the greatest statesman (politicians) in all of history, Edmund Burke of Great Britain (who defended the American colonies), observed:

“

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.

”

One side cannot win a game by not showing up. And the other side will show up in politics. How would a Yankees fan feel if the New York Yankees failed even to show up for the games?

Also, many political groups (including the conservative movement) are growing rapidly. There are job opportunities. Paul Ryan, the Vice Presidential candidate for the Republican Party in 2012, obtained a good job on the staff of a Congressman, and was later elected to Congress himself, earning a very good salary with a fantastic pension, and then was selected by Mitt Romney to be his running mate as Vice President. His career was far better by participating in politics then it would likely have been outside of politics.

"Midterm" Elections

On November 2nd, all 435 House seats are up for election, and at least 33 out of 100 (U.S.) Senate seats are likewise on the ballot. (Sometimes more Senate seats are on the ballot due to special elections to fill vacancies; without vacancies the number would be 33 one year, 33 two years later, and 34 two years after that.) The president is not on the ballot because this year, 2010, is not divisible by 4; the presidential term is 4 years and Barack Obama was elected to that position in 2008.

There are two vacancies in the House as of August 1st, and of the remaining 433 House seats, the Democrats hold a 38-vote majority. Stated another way, the Republicans can win a vote only if 38 Democrats cross over to their side on the issue (and no Republicans cross to the Democratic side on the issue). From this information you can figure out the answer to Question 2 below: how many House seats are Democratic, and how many are Republican. In the Senate, the Democrats hold a 9-vote majority, but because the Vice President is also a Democrat and his job is to cast a vote if there is a tie, the Democrats essentially hold a 10-vote majority there.

Due to gerrymandering, however, fewer than 100 out of the 435 House seats are "in play," such that either party could win it. Gerrymandering is one many new terms you will learn as part of this course. Its name comes from a cartoon making fun of Governor Eldridge Gerry of Massachusetts in 1812, who signed into law a redistricting for state that used odd shapes in order to help his political party be elected. This is possible because voting patterns become predictable over time: many neighborhoods are known to vote heavily Democratic or heavily Republican based on prior elections.

For example, San Francisco is a heavily Democratic area, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi represents a "safe seat" there. Indeed, more than 335 out of the 435 House seats represent districts that are safely Republican or safely Democratic. In those districts, the only way to defeat an incumbent (the person in office running for reelection) is to defeat him in the primary.

With the advent of the internet, there is up-to-the minute analysis of the likely outcomes in every election. One site, "RealClearPolitics"(you might consider that website name to be an "oxymoron", or self-contradictory term, because politics is rarely "clear") provided this analysis on August 1:

• U.S. House of Representatives: 202 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats in the election, 201 seats likely to be retained or won by Republicans in the election, and 32 "toss-up" seats that can be won by either side.

• U.S. Senate: 49 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats, 43 likely to be retained or won by Republicans, and 8 "toss-up" seats. Note that in the U.S. Senate there are two "Independents", but they vote for Democratic control so they are treated as Democratic.

• State Governors: 14 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats, 24 likely to be retained or won by Republicans, and 11 seats are "toss-ups". (Note that the election of the governor of New Jersey occurs only every four years in an odd-numbered year, not this year; Governor Chris Christie was elected in November 2009.)

In 1994, when Democratic President Bill Clinton had approval ratings of 46%, his party (the Democratic Party) lost the following in the "midterm elections": 54 seats in the House, 8 seats in the Senate, 9 state governor seats, and 514 state legislator seats. It was considered a landslide loss for the Democratic Party, one of its worst ever. How will it do in two months?

Homework

1. Can you identify parts of the acceptance speeches of Mitt Romney or Barack Obama that were designed to improve their poll numbers in a particular way?

2.

3.

4.

Extra credit:

5.

You can post your answers at American Government Homework One.