New Hampshire primary

The New Hampshire presidential primary for the 2016 cycle will be held on February 9, 2016.

Republican primary voters are not as socially conservative in New Hampshire as in the Midwest and the South, but New Hampshire is losing the enormous significance it once had. It does has a maverick streak, liking to reject a front-runner candidate in order to deliver an upset winner. John McCain won New Hampshire primary in both 2000 and 2008, reflecting the anti-tax, pro-veteran, independent leanings of the primary voters.

Independents are allowed to vote in the Republican primary, which can yield a more moderate result than if it were Republicans only.

This is a must-win state for Jeb Bush in 2016, given that he is unlikely to do well in the Iowa caucuses the week prior.

Polling

In a new poll released August 11, 2015, Donald Trump has a commanding lead with 18%. The runners-up, in this order, are Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, and Ted Cruz.