Essay:Analyses of misleading polls
This essay is an original work by Liberaltears. Please comment only on the talk page.
This poll was published by Civiqs/The Daily Kos in mid-June 2020, claiming in the 2020 U.S. Senate special election in Arizona that current Republican interim senator Martha McSally was trailing Democrat Mark Kelly by 9%. Having a sample size of 1,368 people and a margin of error at ±2.9%, there are specifics to be examined and weighed as needed.
Polling data
The following is a table listing the resulted preferences according to the poll between McSally and Kelly by party affiliation:
| Total | Republican | Democrat | Independent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martha McSally | 42% | 85% | 3% | 36% |
| Mark Kelly | 51% | 8% | 95% | 52% |
| Total | 93% | 93% | 98% | 88% |
The poll also states regarding its sample makeup that 35% were Republicans, 34% were Democrats, and 31% were Independents.
Weighing
To properly weigh the data by party affiliation, the assumption must follow that the ratios by row in the two-way table are valid, but that the sample makeup is skewed.
Exit polling data
A strong method of finding party affiliation statistics is to use exit polls from recent elections. Since this is regarding the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Arizona, accurate representative data includes using those from the 2018 Senate election in Arizona, although it is important to note that the latter was during a midterm year, which contrasts in region turnout in comparison with presidential election years (such as this one). According to the CNN exit poll that had a sample size of 1,091 people, 38% were Republicans, 32% were Democrats, and 31% were Independents. According to the Fox News poll that had a sample size of 4,097 respondents, 47% either identified as Republican or "lean" Republican, 41% identifying either as Democrat or "lean" Democrat, and 12% being Independents.
It's important to note that the Fox News poll has greater accuracy in including the "lean" option when asking about party ID; since many registered Independents include partisans who are dissatisfied with their party leadership, they may have greater tendencies to identify by their political ideology though less so the party associated with it. This notion is backed up via the statistics of a previous high-sampled NBC/Marist poll, which found that, in its sample makeup, 22% of respondents identified as "Independent" when there was no "lean" option in party affiliation, though only 11% responded as "Just Independents" when a "soft"/"strong" option was included.
Using CNN exit polling
McSally: (38% Ã 85%) + (32% Ã 3%) + (31% Ã 36%) = 44.42% Kelly: (38% Ã 8%) + (32% Ã 95%) + (31% Ã 52%) = 49.56%
Using Fox News exit polling
McSally: (47% Ã 85%) + (41% Ã 3%) + (12% Ã 36%) = 45.5% Kelly: (47% Ã 8%) + (41% Ã 95%) + (12% Ã 52%) = 48.95%