American Government Lecture One

The Tuesday after the first Monday in November: what is special about that day in the United States? It is Election Day. This is the day that determines who runs government.

In every even-numbered year, 435 members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the members of the U.S. Senate are elected to serve in Washington, D.C. In every year divisible by four, a president is also elected; these are called presidential elections, and other elections are called "midterm elections" because they occur halfway during a president's term.

American government is like a complex clock, with different parts having their own special functions, often independent of each other. Elections are akin to setting the clock to a particular time, from which point it starts to operate forward.

Politicians think about their moment of reelection nearly every day, and it influences much of what they do. Note that not all politicians are in the same election, and many people in government (such and United States judges and many workers in Washington, D.C.) never face an election. But everyone who creates new laws, from the members of the House of Representatives (called "congressmen") to the members of the Senate (called "senators") to the President, must defeat opponents in elections to attain power or stay in power.

discuss sources of information, and media bias

branches of government, federal and state; also role of the economy in elections.

role of campaign spending

concept of "political machines."

role of unions

the pro-life movement and its growing influence, particularly among young people

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Homework

List the different factors that affect the outcome of an election, such as the status of the economy (consumer confidence), the extent of media bias in favoring one side, the strength of the candidates with respect to electability, special world or national events that may sway the public more to one side than the other, and so on. Ponder how much "weight" or emphasis to give each consideration (with the totals adding up to 100%, as in 30% to the economy, 35% to media bias, etc.). Then answer these questions:

1. List what you think are the top six factors affecting the outcome of the election this November 2nd, and give relative "weights" to each according to your opinion.

2. Identify the total numbers by political party in the House, Senate, and Governorships today (e.g., House is Democrats __, Republicans __, for a total of 435). Include the Independents in the Senate in the Democratic totals because they vote for the Democratic leadership.

3. Is the President on the ballot this November? If not, then why not?

4. Apply your answers to numbers 1 and 2 above to make a prediction of the net change in the strength of the political parties in the House, and separately the net change in the Senate, and again separately the net change in the Governorships (e.g., Republicans +9 seats in House, Democrats +1 seat in the Senate, and Republicans +3 seats in the State Governorships). Explain briefly your predictions.

Extra credit:

5. What tactical change by either party between now and the election would cause you to change your prediction significantly?