American Government Lecture One

To enroll, see Conservapedia:American Government Fall 2010.

Consider the Tuesday after the first Monday in November: what is special about that day? It is Election Day in the "United States of America." This is the day that determines who runs government.

This year Election Day is the earliest it can possibly be: November 2nd, which is the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Election Day can never be on November 1st because then the Monday would be in October rather than November.

Election Day is only two months from now. With each passing day the political excitement and anticipation will grow. Everyone in Congress and the White House is repeatedly thinking and worrying about Election Day.

In every even-numbered year, 435 members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the members of the U.S. Senate are elected to serve in Washington, D.C. In every year divisible by four, a president is also elected; these are called presidential elections, and other elections are called "midterm elections" because they occur halfway during a president's term.

In odd-numbered years, there are no federal elections (unless there is a special election to fill a vacancy). But two states elect their state officials in odd-numbered years: New Jersey and Virginia.

American government is like a complex clock, with different parts having their own special functions, often independent of each other. Elections are akin to setting the clock to a particular time, from which point it starts to operate forward.

Politicians think about their moment of reelection nearly every day, and it influences much of what they do. Note that not all politicians are in the same election, and many people in government (such and United States judges and many workers in Washington, D.C.) never face an election. But everyone who creates new laws, from the members of the House of Representatives (called "congressmen") to the members of the Senate (called "senators") to the President, must defeat opponents in elections to attain power or stay in power.

We will discuss this in more detail later, but it is worth mentioning here too. There are three branches of federal government: legislative (Congress), executive (President and numerous agencies under his supervision), and the judiciary (the courts). In addition, there is state government, which is completely independent of the federal government in our unique system of dual sovereigns. There is also free enterprise (the free market), which is regulated by government but has an independent influence on Elections, as the economy has good times and bad and thereby affects how people vote.

Difference Between Politics and History

History is about the past; politics is about the future. Unlike history, politics is constantly changing. In some ways, politics is similar to a game in sports: what happened on the last football play or baseball pitch is not likely to be copied for the next play or pitch. Instead, the way the game is played is constantly changing. How an election was won two or four years ago is probably not how it will be won next time.

Around 1990, newspapers were far more powerful in influencing elections than they are today. Newspapers are pro-abortion, and strongly favored pro-abortion (pro-choice) candidates. They won easily. Now, with newspapers weaker in influence and people being increasingly pro-life, candidates find it helpful to say they are pro-life. An historian might think that pro-life candidates tend to lose by looking at 1990; a political analyst, looking to the future, would say the opposite.

"Midterm" Elections

The Tuesday after the first Monday in November this year is November 2, and that is Election Day. All 435 House seats are up for election, and at least 33 out of 100 (U.S.) Senate seats are likewise on the ballot. (Sometimes more Senate seats are on the ballot due to special elections to fill vacancies; without vacancies the number would be 33 one year, 33 two years later, and 34 two years after that.) The president is not on the ballot because this year, 2010, is not divisible by 4; the presidential term is 4 years and Barack Obama was elected to that position in 2008.

Due to gerrymandering, however, less than 100 out of the 435 House seats are "in play," such that either party could win it. Gerrymandering is one many new terms you will learn as part of this course. Its name comes from a cartoon making fun of Governor Eldridge Gerry of Massachusetts in 1812, who signed into law a redistricting for state that used odd shapes in order to help his political party be elected. This is possible because voting patterns become predictable over time: many neighborhoods are known to vote heavily Democratic or heavily Republican based on prior elections.

For example, San Francisco is a heavily Democratic area, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi represents a "safe seat" there. Indeed, over 335 out of the 435 House seats represent districts that are safely Republican or safely Democratic. In those districts, the only way to defeat an incumbent (the person in office running for reelection) is to defeat him in the primary.

concept of "political machines."

polling, and the influence of polling

Governors elections, but not NJ

Senate imbalance in seats up this year

Republicans reportedly want to "nationalize" the midterm election; Democrats resisting that; explain what this means

other historic midterm elections: 1994, 1946

role of unions

the pro-life movement and its growing influence, particularly among young people

concept of "turnout", and how the turnout of homeschooling graduates is much higher than that of public school graduates

negative campaigns and smear campaigns; how intensity builds toward the last week in the campaign

concept of "get out the vote," and how people vote in different areas of the nation (e.g., vote-by-mail, as in Oregon)

concept of "lame duck" session

discuss sources of information (television, radio, newspapers, internet, conferences, schools, word-of-mouth), and media bias

role of campaign spending

(add more)

Homework

List the different factors that affect the outcome of an election, such as the status of the economy (consumer confidence), the extent of media bias in favoring one side, the strength of the candidates with respect to electability, special world or national events that may sway the public more to one side than the other, and so on. Ponder how much "weight" or emphasis to give each consideration (with the totals adding up to 100%, as in 30% to the economy, 35% to media bias, etc.). Then answer these questions:

1. List what you think are the top six factors affecting the outcome of the election this November 2nd, and give relative "weights" to each according to your opinion.

2. Identify the total numbers by political party in the House, Senate, and Governorships today (e.g., House is Democrats __, Republicans __, for a total of 435). Include the Independents in the Senate in the Democratic totals because they vote for the Democratic leadership.

3. Is the President on the ballot this November? If not, then why not?

4. Apply your answers to numbers 1 and 2 above to make a prediction of the net change in the strength of the political parties in the House, and separately the net change in the Senate, and again separately the net change in the Governorships (e.g., Republicans +9 seats in House, Democrats +1 seat in the Senate, and Republicans +3 seats in the State Governorships). Explain briefly your predictions.

Extra credit:

5. What tactical change by either party between now and the election would cause you to change your prediction significantly?