View source for Essay: Vladimir Putin's foolish decision to launch an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022

[[File:Putin 2023.jpg|thumbnail|right|200px|Vladimir Putin]]
I wrote these essays which discuss some of Russia's biggest problems:

*[[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future|Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]

*[[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse|Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]]

*[[Essay: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies|Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies]]

*[[Essay: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia|Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia]]

*[[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian|Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian]]

*[[Essay: What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?|What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?]]

*[[Essay: Why has the West been so successful?|Why has the West been so successful?]]

*[[Essay: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines|Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines]]

*[[Essay: A Chinese economic collapse will be Russia's downfall|A Chinese economic collapse will be Russia's downfall]]

*[[Essay: Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline|Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline]]

In addition, I wrote these essays about the war in Ukraine: 

*[[Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes|How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes]]

*[[Essay: Russian war crimes in Ukraine|Russian war crimes in Ukraine]]

== Russia's biggest problems. The war in Ukraine made Russia's biggest problems worse ==

Russia's biggest problems are: 

'''1.''' It's subreplacement level of births is helping to cause a demographic crisis. Putin has admitted this is a major crisis. The war in Ukraine is making this problem worse (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse|Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]]). 

Russia has some significant social problems such as alcoholism, high divorce rate, health issues and domestic violence which is making its demographic crisis worse. The war in Ukraine is making these problems worse. 
[[File:Flag of Russia.png|right|thumbnail|250px|The flag of [[Russia]] ]]
'''2.''' Russia is experiencing a brain drain of the most talented/technical/educationally advanced people leaving Russia - including many millionaires leaving Russia. Putin has admitted that Russia's labor productivity rate is a major problem that needs to be tackled. The war in Ukraine is making this problem worse (See: [[Essay: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia|Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia]]).

'''3.''' The most easiest oil to access is going to run out leaving the more expensive oil to access remaining. Russia knows that it should diversify its economy. The war in Ukraine is a big distraction (See: [[Essay: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies|Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies]]).

'''4.''' When you are a big seller of commodities such as oil and gas, the last thing you want to do is artificially lower your market size. Although the war in Ukraine is artificially raising the price of oil, Russia is now discounting its oil in its sale of oil to China, India, Turkey, etc.  Furthermore, China's economy is starting to be in trouble so Russia depending on oil sales to China to a high degree is not a good thing (See: [[Essay: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines|Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines]] and [[Essay: A Chinese economic collapse will be Russia's downfall|A Chinese economic collapse will be Russia's downfall]]). 

'''5.''' Russia has a long history of corruption and authoritarian leadership. Long term, these types of societies don't fare well in the modern world ([[Soviet Union]], China's growing economic/social problems, etc.). The war in Ukraine is making Russia more authoritarian and not less (See: [[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian|Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian]] and [[Essay: What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?|What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?]] and [[Essay: Why has the West been so successful?|Why has the West been so successful?]]).

'''Key additional points:''' 

'''1.''' Russia is a nuclear power with a much bigger population than Ukraine. Russia also has a lot of industrial capacity. Furthermore, Professor John Mearsheimer has described Europe as a "museum" due to its aging population. Bottom line: Europe's aging population was not itching to invade Russia. 

'''2.''' Russia is a very large country with a lot of natural resources. Gaining additional war-torn land in Ukraine is not fulfilling a vital need of Russia. Furthermore, this war has caused Finland, etc. to join NATO. 

'''3.''' [https://theconversation.com/russias-economy-is-now-completely-driven-by-the-war-in-ukraine-it-cannot-afford-to-lose-but-nor-can-it-afford-to-win-221333 Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win], The Conversation, February 22, 2024

Once the war in Ukraine ends, the transition from a war economy to a civilian economy is going to cause some economic pain. Wars are generally not good for a nation's long-term economy because things like education, increasing productivity rate, infrastructure spending, health care, etc all take a hit.

== Did the February 2020 invasion of Ukraine by Putin launch a just war? No, it did not. ==

''See also:'' [[Just War Theory]] and [[Essay: Russian war crimes in Ukraine|Russian war crimes in Ukraine]]

Under ''jus ad bellum'', only legitimate authorities can wage war for the right reasons (usually this means a defensive war, or a war of defending the weak against a violent oppressor <ref>[http://biblehub.com/proverbs/24-11.htm Proverbs 24:11] and [http://biblehub.com/commentaries/proverbs/24-11.htm commentaries]; see also [http://biblehub.com/psalms/82-4.htm Psalm 82:4] and [http://biblehub.com/job/29-17.htm Job 29:17].</ref>) and only as a last resort if every other peaceful means to avert war have been used to no avail.  A just war can only be waged if there is a serious evil that needs to be stopped.  '''Furthermore, there must be a realistic chance that the evil can be stopped without starting a greater evil.'''  If this happens the war reaches a just conclusion. A war started for just reasons and justly waged may still reach an unjust conclusion.

The war in Ukraine has caused a big amount of bad consequences for Russia, Ukraine and the world at large (food prices around the world, etc.). It has caused a greater evil than the previous state of affairs.
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[[File:Saint Augustine by Philippe de Champaigne.jpg|center|thumbnail|300px|[[Saint Augustine]].
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[[Just War Theory]] is a Christian theory of moral ethics that goes back to Saint Augustine and St. [[Thomas Aquinas]]. ]]
{{Clear}}
=== How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics. ===

[[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a [[bipartisan]], nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article ''How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine''
{{Cquote|Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>}}
[[File:Georgetown 2.jpg|thumbnail|center|300px|[[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>]]
{{Clear}}

== Why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why February 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022 ==

Below are resources on why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why Febuary 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022

*[[Essay: The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years|The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years]]

*[[Essay: December 2021 was a pivotal moment in the future of global politics for decades to come|December 2021 was a pivotal moment in the future of global politics for decades to come]]

*[[Essay: February 2022 might prove to be a pivotal moment in the future of global politics|February 2022 might prove to be a pivotal moment in the future of global politics]]

== Essays on Russia ==

==== Russia ====
[[File:Vladimir Putin in KGB uniform.jpg|thumbnail|right|225px|[[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian|Vladimir Putin]] in a [[KGB]] uniform.
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See also: [[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian|Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian]] ]]
*[[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian|Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian]]

*[[Essay: Russian war crimes in Ukraine|Russian war crimes in Ukraine]]

*[[Essay: Russia's neo-Nazi problem belies one of Putin's rationales for the war in Ukraine|Russia's neo-Nazi problem belies one of Putin's rationales for the war in Ukraine]]

*[[Essay: Russia has the 2nd highest rate of alcoholism in the world|Russia has the 2nd highest rate of alcoholism in the world]]

*[[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future|Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]

*[[Essay: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia|Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia]]

*[[Essay: The future of Russia. The kings of wishful thinking versus a more realistic scenario|The future of Russia. The kings of wishful thinking versus a more realistic scenario]]

*[[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse|Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]]

*[[Essay: Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about|Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about]]

*[[Essay: A Chinese economic collapse will be Russia's downfall|A Chinese economic collapse will be Russia's downfall]]

*[[Essay: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines|Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines]]

*[[Essay: The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will significantly hurt the Russian economy|The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will significantly hurt the Russian economy]]

*[[Essay: Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline|Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline]]

*[[Essay: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?|Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?]]

*[[Essay: Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world.|Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world]]

*[[Essay: Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?|Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?]]

*[[Essay: Is Vladimir Putin a manchild or a macho genius?|Is Vladimir Putin a manchild or a macho genius?]]

*[[Essay: Search results for "Russia demographics crisis" using the Russian search engine Yandex and Google Scholar. Fanatical Russophiles weep for Mother Russia who has a low fertility rate that is far below a replacement level of births|Search results for "Russia demographics crisis" using the Russian search engine Yandex and Google Scholar. Fanatical Russophiles weep for Mother Russia who has a low fertility rate that is far below a replacement level of births]]

*[[Essay: Do you strongly believe in gun rights? Don't move to Russia!|Do you strongly believe in gun rights? Don't move to Russia!]]

*[[Essay: Nordsteam pipelines being sabotaged and Putin failing to play politics several moves ahead on the politics chess board|Nordsteam pipelines being sabotaged and Putin failing to play politics several moves ahead on the politics chess board]]

*[[Essay: Doomsday phobias - including nucleomituphobia caused by Russian threats to use a nuclear bomb|Doomsday phobias - including nucleomituphobia caused by Russian threats to use a nuclear bomb]]

*[[Essay: Russian Statistics Service indicates that 22.6 percent of Russian households aren't connected to a sewer system|Essay: Russian Statistics Service indicates that 22.6 percent of Russian households aren't connected to a sewer system]] 

*[[Essay: Vladimir Putin understimates small opponents - big time!|Vladimir Putin understimates small opponents - big time!]] - Humor

*[[Essay: There is no evidence that Vladimir Putin plays chess|There is no evidence that Vladimir Putin plays chess]] - Humor

*[[Essay: Why a Westerner falling for Russian propaganda is like a man who is seduced by a corrupt 300 pound woman|Why a Westerner falling for Russian propaganda is like a man who is seduced by a corrupt 300 pound woman]] - Humor

== User:Conservative's essays ==

*[[User:Conservative's essays]]
==References==
{{reflist}}
[[Category: Essays]]
[[Category: Russia]]
[[Category:Current Heads of State]]
[[Category:Russian People]]
[[Category:Russian Political People]]