Difference between revisions of "Global atheism and aging populations"
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This is probably pretty good news for Zyuganov and the Communists. According to data on the age structure of the Russian population, there are many millions of people over fifty years old and, thus, | This is probably pretty good news for Zyuganov and the Communists. According to data on the age structure of the Russian population, there are many millions of people over fifty years old and, thus, | ||
| − | too old to smoothly transition to the ways of the new economy. Support for the Communists among such people is disproportionately strong, and old workers (who are soon-to-be pensioners) will remain a very large category of voters for many years to come.<ref>[https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/nceeer/2002-815-12g-Kiewiet.pdf ARE THE COMMUNISTS DYING OUT IN RUSSIA?], The National Council for Eurasian and East European Research<ref>}} | + | too old to smoothly transition to the ways of the new economy. Support for the Communists among such people is disproportionately strong, and old workers (who are soon-to-be pensioners) will remain a very large category of voters for many years to come.<ref>[https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/nceeer/2002-815-12g-Kiewiet.pdf ARE THE COMMUNISTS DYING OUT IN RUSSIA?], The National Council for Eurasian and East European Research</ref>}} |
== Aging atheist populations and belief in God == | == Aging atheist populations and belief in God == | ||
Revision as of 23:47, June 16, 2016
The current global atheist population mostly resides in East Asia (particularly China) and in secular Europe/Australia primarily among whites.[2] See: Global atheism
As can be seen below, global atheism is facing significant challenges in terms of aging populations in East Asia and Europe and atheism is expected to shrink in terms of its market share of the world's population (see: Desecularization).
Contents
Atheists and fertility rates
See also: Fertility rates and desecularization and Causes of desecularization and Atheism and sexuality
The cause of many irreligious countries having aging populations is their sub-replacement fertility rates. Michael Blume, a researcher at the University of Jena in Germany, wrote about the sub-replacement level of fertility among atheistic populations: "Most societies or communities that have espoused atheistic beliefs have not survived more than a century."[3] Blume also indicated concerning concerning his research on this matter: "What I found was the complete lack of a single case of a secular population, community or movement that would just manage to retain replacement level."[4] See also: Atheism and sexuality
The Washington Post wrote about the United States and fertility rates for various religious groups:
| “ | According to Pew's data, the average Mormon can expect to make 3.4 babies in his or her lifetime. Jews, Catholics, and most flavors of Protestantism have fertility rates ranging from 2 to 2.5. At the low end of the baby-making spectrum you've got atheists, with 1.6 kids, and agnostics, who average only 1.3.[5] | ” |
As atheist populations rise in age, the fertility rates of atheistic countries could drop further. The Rand Corporation indicates, "Nearly all European nations are experiencing long-term downtrends in fertility, and consequently, ageing of their populations. These demographic trends could have potentially damaging consequences for European economies."[6]
East Asia's aging population
See also: Asian atheism
CNBC reported in 2015: "36 percent of the world's population over 65 currently live in East Asia. That's 211 million people and it is projected to rise over time."[7]
Razib Khan points out in Discover Magazine, "most secular nations in the world are those of East Asia, in particular what are often termed “Confucian societies.” It is likely therefore that the majority of the world’s atheists are actually East Asian.}[8] See: Asian atheism
CNBC reported in 2015:
| “ | If stock market volatility, slowing economies, and low commodity prices were not enough of a problem for East Asia, many countries in the region now have to worry about losing as much as 15 percent of their working-age population by 2040, according to the World Bank.
In a report released Wednesday, the World Bank said aging population and low fertility rates are to blame as 36 percent of the world's population over 65 currently live in East Asia. That's 211 million people and it is projected to rise over time.[9] |
” |
China's aging population
See also: Growth of Christianity in China
China has the largest atheists population in the world (see: Atheist population). The Chinese population is rapidly aging, due to a lower mortality rate and its former one child policy. This will lead to a pension problem for the Chinese government.[10] See: Asian atheism
Like most religious conservatives within Abrahamic religions, Evangelical Christians do have higher than replacement levels of births (see: Desecularization). China's demographics in terms of the age of its population will likely change in the 21st century due to the rapid growth of evangelical Christianity in China (see: Growth of Christianity in China).
Secular Europe and its countries aging populations
See also: European atheism and 21st century decline
See also: Secular Europe and Growth of global desecularization
Giuseppe Carone and Declan Costello of the International Monetary Fund projected in September of 2006 that the ratio of retirees to workers in Europe will double to 0.54 by 2050 (from four workers per retiree to two workers per retiree).[12]
In 2014, the Pew Research Forum indicated that Europe will go from 11% of the world's population to 7% of the world's population by 2050.[11] The cause of this matter is the sub-replacement level of secular Europeans and the higher fertility rates of religious countries in the world.
However, within secular Europe, there are religious sub-populations seeing significant growth which along with religious immigrants will cause a desecularization of Europe sometime in the 21st century (see: European atheism and 21st century decline).
Ed West wrote in Britain's newspaper The Telegraph:
| “ | Across the western world the fertility rate of religious conservatives far outstrips that of non-believers, so much so that modern liberal secularism is endangered. That, anyway, is the thesis of Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?, a fascinating new book by Eric Kaufmann of Birkbeck University, which is published later this month. It may well be one of the most significant books of our era.”[13] | ” |
Europe's aging population is a serious issue and it will stress its various pension systems.[14]
Communists and elderly in Russia
Atheist ideology is part of communist ideology (see: Atheism and communism).
In 2002, the The National Council for Eurasian and East European Research published a paper entitled Are the Communist Dying out in Russia? which declared:
| “ | According to many observers of Russian politics, advocates of market-oriented reform have time on their side. A number of studies have reported that backing for the Communist Party and opposition to reform is concentrated among the elderly. As this cohort of voters – people who came of age during the Stalinist era and who have suffered disproportionately from Yeltsin-era economic reforms – dies off, one
would expect to see a decline in support for the Communists and weaker resistance to further reform measures. The results of elections in 1999 and 2000, however, show that support for the Communists remained relatively steady over the decade of the 1990s... This is probably pretty good news for Zyuganov and the Communists. According to data on the age structure of the Russian population, there are many millions of people over fifty years old and, thus, too old to smoothly transition to the ways of the new economy. Support for the Communists among such people is disproportionately strong, and old workers (who are soon-to-be pensioners) will remain a very large category of voters for many years to come.[15] |
” |
Aging atheist populations and belief in God
See also: Atheism has a lower retention rate compared to other worldviews
A 2012 study by the General Social Survey of the social science research organization NORC at the University of Chicago found that belief in God rises with age, even in atheistic nations.[16]
Notes
- ↑ http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/global-study-atheists-decline-only-18-world-population-2020 Global Study: Atheists in Decline, Only 1.8% of World Population by 2020]
- ↑ A surprising map of where the world’s atheists live, By Max Fisher and Caitlin Dewey, Washington Post, May 23, 2013
- ↑ Atheist: A dying breed as nature favours faithful
- ↑ Atheist: A dying breed as nature favours faithful
- ↑ Charted: The religions that make the most babies, Washington Post
- ↑ Low Fertility and Population Ageing, Rand Corporation
- ↑ Here's why East Asia could be in big trouble, CNBC
- ↑ Most atheists are not white & other non-fairy tales, Discover magazine
- ↑ Here's why East Asia could be in big trouble, CNBC
- ↑ China's aging population
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 Kochhar, Rakesh (February 3, 2014). "10 projections for the global population in 2050". FactTank/Pew Research Center website.
- ↑ Europe's Aging Population Faces Social Problems Similar to Japan's. Goldsea Asian American Daily. Retrieved on 15 December 2007.
- ↑ Cyanide Tablet and the End of Atheism by Gary Demar
- ↑ Looming pension crisis
- ↑ ARE THE COMMUNISTS DYING OUT IN RUSSIA?, The National Council for Eurasian and East European Research
- ↑ Belief in God rises with age, even in atheist nations
