Swing States 2012
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Here are the key swing states for the Presidential Election 2012, ranked by likelihood that Barack Obama will likely lose them despite winning them in 2008. These eight swing states will have a total of 122 Electoral College votes in 2012. (In 2008 Obama won by a margin of only six states.)
| State | Margin of Obama's win in 2008 | Indicators | Electoral Votes in 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 1.03% | Indiana was a red state from 1964 to 2004, and when Obama took the state in 2008 it was by a very narrow margin. Obama is currently very unpopular in the state | 11 |
| Virginia | Elected a Republican governor, Bob McDonnell, in 2009. In the 2011 elections the Republican party took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature | 13 | |
| Pennsylvania | 10.3% | Obama's disapproval rating is high: 54%, and Republicans swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against Hillary Clinton.[1] | 20 |
| Florida | Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor Rick Scott is currently (Dec. 2011) very unpopular in the state. | 29 | |
| Ohio | 18 | ||
| Wisconsin | Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their labor union allies, recall attempts in 2011 failed to overturn the GOP majority in the state senate. | 10 | |
| North Carolina | The current Democratic governor, Bev Perdue, is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. | 15 | |
| Nevada | A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for Republican Mark Amodei. Harry Reid won reelection in 2010 despite Tea Party opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. | 6 | |
| Colorado | 9 | ||
| Michigan | Mitt Romney, though not ideal for the average conservative, grew up in Michigan and could put it into play | 16 | |
| Iowa | 6 | ||
| New Hampshire | 4 | ||
| New Mexico | 5 |
