Difference between revisions of "United States, immigration and the growth of religion in the USA in the latter part of the 21st century"

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Pew Research data in agreement with U.S. Census Bureau data on immigration being the primary driver of population growth in the USA: "Pew Research Center has put a number on a similar forecast: 82% of U.S. growth from 2005 to 2050 will come from new immigrants and their families."<ref>[https://wheatonbillygraham.com/to-america-with-love-why-u-s-christianitys-resurgence-will-come-from-immigrants/ To America With Love: Why U.S. Christianity’s Resurgence Will Come From Immigrants], Wheaton College, Billy Graham Center, 2023</ref>
 
Pew Research data in agreement with U.S. Census Bureau data on immigration being the primary driver of population growth in the USA: "Pew Research Center has put a number on a similar forecast: 82% of U.S. growth from 2005 to 2050 will come from new immigrants and their families."<ref>[https://wheatonbillygraham.com/to-america-with-love-why-u-s-christianitys-resurgence-will-come-from-immigrants/ To America With Love: Why U.S. Christianity’s Resurgence Will Come From Immigrants], Wheaton College, Billy Graham Center, 2023</ref>
  
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=== U.S. immigration by geographic region/country ===
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=== U.S. immigration by continent/country ===
  
 
"In 2021, over 60% of immigrant workers who came to the US arrived from North America. Of those immigrants, nearly 90.4% came from Mexico. Asia was the continent with the next highest number of workers immigrating to the US, accounting for about 22%, followed by Europe (9%), Africa (4%), and South America (3%)."<ref>[https://usafacts.org/articles/where-do-us-immigrants-come-from/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20over%2060%25%20of,and%20South%20America%20(3%25). Where do US immigrants come from?], USA Facts website, 2023</ref>
 
"In 2021, over 60% of immigrant workers who came to the US arrived from North America. Of those immigrants, nearly 90.4% came from Mexico. Asia was the continent with the next highest number of workers immigrating to the US, accounting for about 22%, followed by Europe (9%), Africa (4%), and South America (3%)."<ref>[https://usafacts.org/articles/where-do-us-immigrants-come-from/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20over%2060%25%20of,and%20South%20America%20(3%25). Where do US immigrants come from?], USA Facts website, 2023</ref>

Revision as of 23:40, May 3, 2024

Map of the United States

In June 2016, American Interest reported: "First of all, religious belief is still very powerful and widespread, and there is nothing inevitable about its decline. In fact, the proportion of people who say they believe in God actually ticked modestly upward, from 86 percent to 89 percent, since Gallup last asked the question in 2014.[1]

On July 24, 2019, due to religious immigration to the United States and the higher fertility rate of religious people, Eric Kaufmann wrote in an article entitled Why Is Secularization Likely to Stall in America by 2050? A Response to Laurie DeRose: "Overall, the picture suggests that the U.S. will continue to secularize in the coming decades. However, a combination of religious immigration, immigrant religious retention, slowing religious decline due to a rising prevalence of believers among the affiliated, and higher native religious birth rates will result in a plateauing of secularizing trends by mid-century." [2]

Darel E. Paul wrote at the First Things website:

“ Even without demographic models, survey data since the 1970s show that the percentage of Americans with a “strong” religious affiliation has not declined at all; it is the “weak” that have turned into “nones.” Moreover, immigration brings primarily religious people from the Global South into the Global North. In his earlier book, Kaufmann predicted that America’s secular high-water mark will occur around 2030; in Western Europe, no later than 2070. In Kaufmann’s view, religious identity will largely overpower ethnic identity a century hence, “with seculars and moderates of all backgrounds lining up against the fundamentalist sects.”[3] ”

Immigration as the prime driver of USA population growth from 2005 to 2050. Most immigrants to the USA are religious

"The U.S. Census Bureau issued a report just after the 2020 data was collected that notes two key demographic realities that churches need to get ready for now. First, by 2030 immigration is projected to become the primary driver of population growth in the United States."[4]

Pew Research data in agreement with U.S. Census Bureau data on immigration being the primary driver of population growth in the USA: "Pew Research Center has put a number on a similar forecast: 82% of U.S. growth from 2005 to 2050 will come from new immigrants and their families."[5]

U.S. immigration by continent/country

"In 2021, over 60% of immigrant workers who came to the US arrived from North America. Of those immigrants, nearly 90.4% came from Mexico. Asia was the continent with the next highest number of workers immigrating to the US, accounting for about 22%, followed by Europe (9%), Africa (4%), and South America (3%)."[6]

91.3% of all Mexicans were Christian in 2020 according to Mexico's census data.[7]

In 2021, as far as immigration to the United States from Asia, "The largest countries of origin were India (2.7 million, or 19 percent of Asian immigrants); China, including Hong Kong (2.5 million, 18 percent); the Philippines (2 million, 15 percent); Vietnam (1.4 million, 10 percent); and South Korea and North Korea (1 million, 7 percent)."[8]

As far as Asia: The majority of Indians are Hindu. China and Vietnam have a large irreligious/nonreligious population. Africa is among the most religious areas on earth (See: Religion and Africa). The majority of Filipinos are Catholic and irreligion is rare in the Philippines.[9]

91.3% of all Mexicans were Christian in 2020 according to census data.[10]
Asian immigration makes up a significant percentage of U.S. immigration.[11]
Many Asian immigrants to the USA are from India where Hindus are the largest religious segment of the population.[12]

Eric Kaufmann, Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon religion/irreligion demographic projections

See also: United States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics

Current religious demography scholarship suggest that the relatively low fertility of secular Americans and the religiosity of the immigrant inflow provide a countervailing force that will cause the secularization process within the total population to plateau before 2043. This represents an important theoretical point in that demography permits society to become more religious even as individuals tend to become less religious over time.[13]

In their 2010 journal article entitled, Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043 published in the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, Eric Kaufmann, Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon wrote:

“ We find considerable stability of religious groups over time, but there are some important shifts. Hispanic Catholics experience the strongest growth rates to 2043. Immigration, high fertility, and a young age structure will enable this group to expand from 10 to 18 percent of the American population between 2003 and 2043, despite a net loss of communicants to secularism and Protestantism. This will power the growth of Catholics as a whole, who will surpass Protestants by mid century within the nation’s youngest age groups. This represents a historic moment for a country settled by anti-Catholic Puritans, whose Revolution was motivated in part by a desire to spread dissenting Protestantism and whose populationon the eve of revolution was 98 percent Protestant (Huntington 2004; Kaufmann 2004). Another important development concerns the growth of the Muslim population and decline of the Jews. High Muslim fertility and a young Muslim age structure contrasts with low Jewish childbearing levels and a mature Jewish age structure. Barring an unforeseen shift in the religious composition and size of the immigrant flow, Muslims will surpass Jews in the population by 2023 and in the electorate by 2028. This could have profound effects on the course of American foreign policy. Within the non-Hispanic white population, we expect to see continued Liberal Protestant decline due to low fertility and a net loss in exchanges with other groups. White Catholics will also lose due to a net outflow of converts. Fundamentalist and Moderate Protestant denominations will hold their own within the white population, but will decline overall as the white share of the population falls.

The finding that Protestant fundamentalism may decline in relative terms over the medium term contrasts with a prevailing view that envisions the continued growth of “strong religion” (Stark and Iannaccone 1994a). This is the result of an older age structure, which increases loss through mortality, and immigration, which reduces the size of all predominantly white denominations — all of which are poorly represented in the immigration flow. Fundamentalists’ relatively high fertility and net surplus from the religious marketplace is not sufficient to counteract the effects of immigration. Obviously, this could change if significant immigration begins to arrive from more Pentecostalist source countries such as Guatemala or parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

Our work also sheds light on the religious restructuring paradigm, though we do not find a clear victor between secularism and fundamentalism. The secular population will grow substantially in the decades ahead because it has a young age structure and more people leave religion than enter it. The sharpest gains for secularism will be within the white population, where seculars will surpass fundamentalists by 2030. On the other hand, there are important demographic limits to secularism, demonstrating the power of religious demography. The relatively low fertility of secular Americans and the religiosity of the immigrant inflow provide a countervailing force that will cause the secularization process within the total population to plateau before 2043. This represents an important theoretical point in that demography permits society to become more religious even as individuals tend to become less religious over time.[14]

”

According to British author Edward Dutton, religious people are more likely to migrate (there are various reasons postulated, but it remains unclear why this is so).[15] See also: Religion and migration

For more information, please see: Growth of evangelicalism in the world and in the United States and American culture war, demographics and expected tipping point after 2020

In 2022, Pew Research reported: {{Cquote|Looking at the experience of 80 countries, we find that the share of people who were raised as Christians and switch away from Christianity has not risen much above 50% anywhere, even in highly secular Western European countries. For American Christians concerned about these trends, that could be the demographic good news of the day. If there truly is a floor under Christian retention rates, the net movement from the ranks of Christian to the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated eventually may stop.[16]

Steve Turley on the growth of religious conservatives in the United States in the 21st century

Steve Turley

Dr. Steve Turley wrote:

“ According to University of London scholar Eric Kaufmann’s detailed study on global demographic trends, we are in the early stages of nothing less than a demographic revolution. In Kaufmann’s words, "religious fundamentalists are on course to take over the world." There is a significant demographic deficit between secularists and conservative religionists. For example, in the U.S., while self-identified non-religionist women averaged only 1.5 children per couple in 2002, conservative evangelical women averaged 2.5 children, representing a 28 percent fertility edge. Kaufmann notes that this demographic deficit has dramatic effects over time. In a population evenly divided, these numbers indicate that conservative evangelicals would increase from 50 to 62.5 percent of the population in a single generation. In two generations, their number would increase to 73.5 percent, and over the course of 200 years, they would represent 99.4 percent. The Amish and Mormons provide contemporary illustrations of the compound effect of endogamous growth. The Amish double in population every twenty years, and projections have the Amish numbering over a million in the U.S. and Canada in just a few decades. Since 1830, Mormon growth has averaged 40 percent per decade, which means that by 2080, there may be as many as 267 million Mormons in the world, making them by 2100 anywhere from one to six percent of the world’s population...

In contrast, Kaufmann’s data projects that secularists, who consistently exemplify a low fertility rate of around 1.5 (significantly below the replacement level of 2.1), will begin a steady decline after 2030 to a mere 14 to 15 percent of the American population. Similar projections apply to Europe as well. Kaufmann thus appears to have identified what he calls "the soft underbelly of secularism," namely, demography. This is because secular liberalism entails its own “demographic contradiction,” the affirmation of the sovereign individual devoid of the restraints of classical moral structures necessitates the freedom not to reproduce. The link between sex and procreation having been broken, modernist reproduction translates into mere personal preference. It thus turns out that the radical individualism so celebrated and revered by contemporary secular propagandists is in fact the agent by which their ideology implodes.[17]

”

Global desecularization

See also: Desecularization

Professor Eric Kaufmann, who teaches at Birkbeck College, University of London, specializes in the academic area of how demographic changes affect religion/irreligion and politics. Kaufmann is an agnostic.

On December 23, 2012, Kaufmann wrote:

“ I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.[18] [19]

”
"I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious."- Eric Kaufmann[20]

Regarding the Western World as a whole and the growth of the religious population in the West, Kaufmann wrote:

“ ...this paper claims that the developing world will not only never catch up, but that, ironically, it is the West which will increasingly come to resemble the developing world. Committed religious populations are growing in the West, and will reverse the march of secularism before 2050. The logic which is driving this apparently anti-modern development is demography, a shadowy historical force whose power multiplies exponentially with the modernisation process. Demography is about raw numbers, and, in an age of low mortality, its chief components are fertility and migration.[21] ”

A study conducted by the Washington-based Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life says that Africans are among the most religious people on Earth.[22] Africa has a high fertility rate and it is seeing a big population boom. According to the Institute For Security Studies: "Africa's population is the fastest growing in the world. It is expected to increase by roughly 50% over the next 18 years, growing from 1.2 billion people today to over 1.8 billion in 2035. In fact, Africa will account for nearly half of global population growth over the next two decades."[23] See: Religion and Africa

At a conference Kaufmann said of religious demographic projections concerning the 21st century:

“ Part of the reason I think demography is very important, at least if we are going to speak about the future, is that it is the most predictable of the social sciences.

...if you look at a population and its age structure now. You can tell a lot about the future. ...So by looking at the relative age structure of different populations you can already say a lot about the future...

...Religious fundamentalism is going to be on the increase in the future and not just out there in the developing world..., but in the developed world as well.[24]

”

See also: Religion and migration and Growth of religious fundamentalism

Notes

  1. ↑ Atheism is Rising, But…, American Interest
  2. ↑ Why Is Secularization Likely to Stall in America by 2050? A Response to Laurie DeRose by Eric Kaufmann July 24, 2019
  3. ↑ THE FUTURE IS MIXED by Darel E. Paul, First Things website
  4. ↑ Ed Stetzer: The Church of 2030, Outreach Magazine, 2023
  5. ↑ To America With Love: Why U.S. Christianity’s Resurgence Will Come From Immigrants, Wheaton College, Billy Graham Center, 2023
  6. ↑ Where do US immigrants come from?, USA Facts website, 2023
  7. ↑ Censo de Población y Vivienda 2020 – Cuestionario básico". INEGI. Retrieved May 18, 2022.]
  8. ↑ Immigrants from Asia in the United States, Migration Policy Institute, 2021
  9. ↑ Irreligion in the Philippines, July 2018, "Irreligion in the Philippines is particularly rare among Filipinos...".
  10. ↑ Censo de Población y Vivienda 2020 – Cuestionario básico". INEGI. Retrieved May 18, 2022.]
  11. ↑ Where do US immigrants come from?, USA Facts website, 2023
  12. ↑ Where do US immigrants come from?, USA Facts website, 2023
  13. ↑ Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043, Journal for the Sientific Study of Religion, vol. 49, no. 2 (June) 2010, Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon,
  14. ↑ Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043, Journal for the Sientific Study of Religion, vol. 49, no. 2 (June) 2010, Eric Kaufmann, Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon,
  15. ↑ Why Are Americans So Religious?
  16. ↑ Religious ‘switching’ patterns will help determine Christianity’s course in U.S., Pew Research, 2022
  17. ↑ (source: Text below the YouTube video Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth and the text was written by Dr. Steven Turley).
  18. ↑ London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  19. ↑ 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious, Tuesday, April 30, 2013
  20. ↑ London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  21. ↑ Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann
  22. ↑ Why so many Africans are religious: Leo Igwe
  23. ↑ Africa’s population boom: burden or opportunity?, Institute For Security Studies
  24. ↑ Eric Kaufmann - Religion, Demography and Politics in the 21st Century
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