Wave (politics)

In politics, a wave is a better-than-expected showing by a political party (or, less frequently but still important, an individual candidate) in an election.

It can describe:

• A better-than-expected showing by the opposition party against the incumbent party, resulting in some cases taking control of a legislative chamber,
• A better-than-expected showing by the incumbent party against the opposition party, resulting in some cases gaining a veto-proof (or, at a minimum, a filibuster-proof) majority in a legislative chamber, or
• A candidate not expected to win but, due to the candidate's personal popularity and/or the ineptitude of the opposition, pulling off an upset.

The term coattail effect describes a wave which is the result of the personal popularity of the candidate at the top of the ballot (usually a candidate for President of the United States). Ronald Reagan's personal popularity led to many gains for the Republican Party during the 1980's; similarly Harry Truman's personal popularity (and the overconfidence of Thomas Dewey and the Republican Party) led to not only an unexpected win in the 1948 Presidential election (which he was expected to lose badly due to a three-way split in his party) but the Democrats retaking both chambers of Congress.

United States Mid-term Elections

The wave phenomenon can happen in any election, but is most pronounced during mid-term elections (those elections held in even-numbered years not divisible by four, when the Presidency is not up for election) because 1) all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives are up for re-election (by contrast, only 1/3 of seats in the United States Senate -- 33 or 34 plus any special elections for unexpired terms -- are up for re-election in any election year) and 2) many states hold gubernatorial elections during mid-terms (so as not to compete with the Presidential election). Historically, in the mid-term elections during a Presidential administration (both in the first, and where applicable in the second), the opposition party outperforms the President's party.

A wave showing by one party or the other in the mid-term elections is frequently used as a gauge to determine the outcome of the upcoming Presidential election.