2026 midterm elections
The 2026 midterm elections, held on November 3, 2026 but with primaries beginning on March 3, and early voting throughout October, will decide which political party controls Congress beginning January 2027, for the second half of the Trump 2.0 administration. Typically, the party not in the White House, in this case the Democrat Party, gains seats in the midterm election.
As GOP leadership in D.C loses touch with the grassroots and particularly Gen Z, Dems are expected to win the House and a narrow majority in the Senate by taking GOP seats in Maine and North Carolina, and two-out-of-four in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and/or Alaska. There is grassroots outrage against data centers supported by GOP leadership, particularly in several of these states.[1]
Senate
Going into the election, the GOP has a 53-47 advantage, plus the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance as may be needed.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is the only Republican up for reelection in a state won by Kamala Harris in 2024, and Collins is considered in jeopardy of losing.[2]
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has declined to run for reelection in the swing state of North Carolina to avoid a likely defeat. Trump won this state by 50.9% to 47.7%.
In Texas incumbent Senator John Cornyn was defeated in a primary runoff by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Early polls have Paxton in a tight race with Democrat James Talarico. A Libertarian Party candidate, Ted Brown, is also running; polls have him between 1-4% of the vote. Talarico's chances of flipping the seat blue depend on whether Cornyn's voters decide to vote for Paxton, vote for Talarico or Brown, or sit the race out.
The widely cited Cook Political Report stated as of October 2025 that there are only 4 tossup seats, 2 held by Dems (Georgia and Michigan) and 2 held by Republicans (Maine and North Carolina).[3]
House
Several states - both Democrat and Republican - have engaged in mid-term redistricting efforts to create more districts for the dominant party in that state.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA1) represents a swing district that voted for Harris in 2024. Rep. Fitzpatrick was one of only 2 Republican "No" votes on the OBBB in early July 2025.
Maureen Galindo, a Democrat candidate in the 35th Congressional District of Texas, said in a post that she’ll turn "Karnes ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) Detention Center into a prison for American Zionists and former ICE officers for human trafficking. (It will also be a castration processing center for pedophiles which will probably be most of the Zionists).”[4] However, Galindo was defeated in the primary runoff.
