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| | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is at 8.3% (and real unemployment much higher) merely 3 months before the election. The [[economy]] grew less than predicted in the first quarter, and "the last time the economy was this slow was in the last year of President [[George H.W. Bush]]’s one term in office" - '''''who then lost reelection'''''.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0427/GDP-report-puts-Obama-in-economic-gray-zone.-Will-Republicans-profit</ref> [[Swing state]]s are expected to select the winner. | | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is at 8.3% (and real unemployment much higher) merely 3 months before the election. The [[economy]] grew less than predicted in the first quarter, and "the last time the economy was this slow was in the last year of President [[George H.W. Bush]]’s one term in office" - '''''who then lost reelection'''''.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0427/GDP-report-puts-Obama-in-economic-gray-zone.-Will-Republicans-profit</ref> [[Swing state]]s are expected to select the winner. |
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| − | Obama has struggled in some of his own primaries, despite the lack of media attention to them. 40% of ''[[Democrats]]'' voted against [[Obama]] in the [[Arkansas]] and [[Kentucky]] primaries in May 2012, and in Arkansas Obama was not declared the winner of his own primary by some in the media until nearly midnight.<ref>http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/229023-in-kentucky-42-percent-of-dems-pick-uncommitted-instead-of-obama</ref>
| + | This election will be like either the election of 1980, when a large bloc of undecided voters moved to the challenger ([[Ronald Reagan]]) in the last few weeks, or the election of 1948, when the [[RINO]] [[Thomas Dewey]] was unable to attract grassroots voters despite the unpopularity of [[Harry Truman]] and the deteriorating economy. |
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| | + | The [[Republican National Convention]] nominated the [[RINO]] [[Mitt Romney]] for president and [[Paul Ryan]] for vice president, and their strategy appears to be to duck and avoid social issues as much as possible. |
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| − | The [[Republican National Convention]] is expected to nominate [[Mitt Romney]] for president and [[Paul Ryan]] for vice president, after an exciting [[2012 Republican Primary]];<ref>The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here].</ref> the latest delegate totals are [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here] and [http://www.politico.com/2012-election/delegate-tracker/ here]. About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination.<ref>Primaries held before April 1, 2012, awarded delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). However, some early states are winner-take-all by Congressional district, sometimes leading to a single candidate taking a large majority of the delegates. For instance, in South Carolina, the winner of each district got 2 delegates (for a total of 14), and the winner of the state got 11. This was permissible because less than 50% of the delegates were awarded to the state winner automatically. Newt Gingrich won all but one Congressional district, as well as the state overall, earning him 23 delegates to Mitt Romney's 2. Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), is winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts. [http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184] Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all; New York was winner-take-all only if one candidate were to win more than 50% of the vote. [http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states]</ref>
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| | __NOTOC__ | | __NOTOC__ |
| | == Republican Contenders for the Nomination == | | == Republican Contenders for the Nomination == |
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| | + | The [[liberal]] wing of the [[Republican Party]] prevailed in the [[2012 Republican Primary]];<ref>The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here].</ref> the latest delegate totals are [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here] and [http://www.politico.com/2012-election/delegate-tracker/ here]. About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination.<ref>Primaries held before April 1, 2012, awarded delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). However, some early states are winner-take-all by Congressional district, sometimes leading to a single candidate taking a large majority of the delegates. For instance, in South Carolina, the winner of each district got 2 delegates (for a total of 14), and the winner of the state got 11. This was permissible because less than 50% of the delegates were awarded to the state winner automatically. Newt Gingrich won all but one Congressional district, as well as the state overall, earning him 23 delegates to Mitt Romney's 2. Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), is winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts. [http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184] Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all; New York was winner-take-all only if one candidate were to win more than 50% of the vote. [http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states]</ref> |
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