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| | *Connecticut | | *Connecticut |
| | + | *Florida |
| | *Indiana | | *Indiana |
| | *Massachusetts | | *Massachusetts |
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| | ==Senate Contests== | | ==Senate Contests== |
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| − | Ratings based on [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html RealClearPolitics website] forecast. | + | Ratings originally based on [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html RealClearPolitics website] forecast; forecasts revised here on September 9, 2012. |
| | | | |
| | ===Safe Republican=== | | ===Safe Republican=== |
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| | Republican [[Jon Kyl]] is retiring. Richard Carmona [D], [[Jeff Flake]] [R], Wil Cardon [R] are running. Flake is endorsed by the [[Senate Conservatives Fund]]. | | Republican [[Jon Kyl]] is retiring. Richard Carmona [D], [[Jeff Flake]] [R], Wil Cardon [R] are running. Flake is endorsed by the [[Senate Conservatives Fund]]. |
| | + | |
| | + | |
| | + | '''* Indiana''' |
| | + | |
| | + | Tea Party-backed Republican [[Richard Mourdock]] will face Democrat Joe Donnelly after defeating 35-year incumbent Republican [[Richard Lugar]]. |
| | | | |
| | '''* Nevada''' | | '''* Nevada''' |
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| | ===Toss Up=== | | ===Toss Up=== |
| | | | |
| − | '''* Connecticut''' | + | '''* Florida''' |
| | | | |
| − | Independent [[Joe Lieberman]] is retiring. Democrat Chris Murphy will face Republican challenger [[Linda McMahon]].
| + | Democrat [[Bill Nelson]] is the incumbent. he will face Republican Representative Connie Mack. An average of polls has shown a near tie in the contest, bad news for an incumbent and Nelson cannot win if Romney takes Florida, a must-win state for him. |
| | | | |
| − | '''* Indiana''' | + | '''* Missouri''' |
| | | | |
| − | Tea Party-backed Republican [[Richard Mourdock]] will face Democrat Joe Donnelly after defeating 35-year incumbent Republican [[Richard Lugar]].
| + | Democrat [[Claire McCaskill]] is the incumbent and faces [[movement conservative]] [[Todd Akin]], the [[Republican]] nominee. Since Akin's comments regarding pregnancy and "legitimate rape," Akin has gone from leading McCaskill by 6 points in prior polls to trailing her by 10 points in a Rasmussen Poll from August 22. |
| | | | |
| | '''* Massachusetts''' | | '''* Massachusetts''' |
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| | ===Leans Democrat=== | | ===Leans Democrat=== |
| | | | |
| − | '''* Florida''' | + | '''* Connecticut''' |
| | | | |
| − | Democrat [[Bill Nelson]] is the incumbent. he will face Republican Representative Connie Mack. An average of polls has shown a near tie in the contest, bad news for an incumbent and Nelson cannot win if Romney takes Florida, a must-win state for him.
| + | Independent [[Joe Lieberman]] is retiring. Democrat Chris Murphy will face Republican challenger [[Linda McMahon]]. |
| | | | |
| | '''* Hawaii''' | | '''* Hawaii''' |
| | | | |
| | Democrat [[Daniel Akaka]] is retiring. Democrat Mazie Hirono will face former Republican Governor [[Linda Lingle]]. | | Democrat [[Daniel Akaka]] is retiring. Democrat Mazie Hirono will face former Republican Governor [[Linda Lingle]]. |
| − |
| |
| − | '''* Missouri'''
| |
| − |
| |
| − | Democrat [[Claire McCaskill]] is the incumbent and faces [[movement conservative]] [[Todd Akin]], the [[Republican]] nominee. Since Akin's comments regarding pregnancy and "legitimate rape," Akin has gone from leading McCaskill by 6 points in prior polls to trailing her by 10 points in a Rasmussen Poll from August 22.
| |
| | | | |
| | '''* New Mexico''' | | '''* New Mexico''' |
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| | | | |
| | Democrat [[Bob Menendez]] is the incumbent. He will face Republican Joe Kyrillos . | | Democrat [[Bob Menendez]] is the incumbent. He will face Republican Joe Kyrillos . |
| − |
| |
| | '''* Pennsylvania''' | | '''* Pennsylvania''' |
| | | | |