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| | + | ''See [[early voting]] for an analysis of voting in [[swing state]]s.'' |
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| | '''Swing states''' are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support prior to a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the election results in either direction. They are also known as "battleground states" because they are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. Since states that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic of Republican candidate are usually referred to as [[blue state|blue states]] and [[red state|red states]], respectively, these states are also called "purple states" in order to highlight their mixed demographical nature. '''It is expected that hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by [[Super PAC]]s will be spent in these swing states in the fall of 2012'''. | | '''Swing states''' are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support prior to a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the election results in either direction. They are also known as "battleground states" because they are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. Since states that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic of Republican candidate are usually referred to as [[blue state|blue states]] and [[red state|red states]], respectively, these states are also called "purple states" in order to highlight their mixed demographical nature. '''It is expected that hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by [[Super PAC]]s will be spent in these swing states in the fall of 2012'''. |
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| | *Ohio | | *Ohio |
| | *Virginia | | *Virginia |
| | + | *Wisconsin |
| | A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win, and Obama won with 95 additional electoral votes in 2008. Assuming that Republicans win Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, '''''this entire election could be decided in only Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio'''''. | | A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win, and Obama won with 95 additional electoral votes in 2008. Assuming that Republicans win Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, '''''this entire election could be decided in only Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio'''''. |
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| | |Ohio | | |Ohio |
| − | |Toss up | + | |Leaning to Obama. |
| | |4.6% | | |4.6% |
| | |Ohio voted Republican in the 2010 elections, but the public unions repealed the collective bargaining reforms by popular vote. This indicates heavy union influence, a plus for Obama as unions vote heavily Democratic. As of September 13, 2012, Romney (46%) and Obama (47%) were virtually tied.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president Election 2012: Ohio President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | | |Ohio voted Republican in the 2010 elections, but the public unions repealed the collective bargaining reforms by popular vote. This indicates heavy union influence, a plus for Obama as unions vote heavily Democratic. As of September 13, 2012, Romney (46%) and Obama (47%) were virtually tied.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president Election 2012: Ohio President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
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| | |- | | |- |
| | |Iowa | | |Iowa |
| − | |Toss-up | + | |Leaning to Obama. |
| | |9.5% | | |9.5% |
| | |Mitt Romney leads Obama 47% to 44% as of September 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/election_2012_iowa_president Election 2012: Iowa President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | | |Mitt Romney leads Obama 47% to 44% as of September 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/election_2012_iowa_president Election 2012: Iowa President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
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| | |- | | |- |
| | |Virginia | | |Virginia |
| − | |Toss-up | + | |Leaning to Romney. |
| | |6% | | |6% |
| | |Elected a Republican governor, [[Bob McDonnell]], in 2009. In the 2011 elections the Republican party took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature. A Rasmussen Reports survey of Virginia taken September 14th gave Obama a 1 point lead, 49% to 48%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president Election 2012: Virginia President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | | |Elected a Republican governor, [[Bob McDonnell]], in 2009. In the 2011 elections the Republican party took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature. A Rasmussen Reports survey of Virginia taken September 14th gave Obama a 1 point lead, 49% to 48%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president Election 2012: Virginia President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
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| | |Florida | | |Florida |
| − | |Toss-up | + | |Likely Romney |
| | |2.8% | | |2.8% |
| | |Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor [[Rick Scott]] is currently (August 2012) very unpopular in the state. Obama's approval in the state is below 50%. Florida is a must win for Romney;<ref>http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/sept-11-florida-a-true-must-win-for-romney/</ref> however, as of September 13, 2012, Obama held a 2-point lead, 48% to 46%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president Election 2012: Florida President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | | |Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor [[Rick Scott]] is currently (August 2012) very unpopular in the state. Obama's approval in the state is below 50%. Florida is a must win for Romney;<ref>http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/sept-11-florida-a-true-must-win-for-romney/</ref> however, as of September 13, 2012, Obama held a 2-point lead, 48% to 46%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president Election 2012: Florida President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
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| | |New Hampshire | | |New Hampshire |
| − | |Leaning Democrat | + | |Leaning to Obama. |
| | |9.6% | | |9.6% |
| | |Romney has some roots here and was governor of nearby Massachusetts. He holds a 3-point lead (48% to 45%) over Obama, as of September 19, 2012<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president Election 2012: New Hampshire President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | | |Romney has some roots here and was governor of nearby Massachusetts. He holds a 3-point lead (48% to 45%) over Obama, as of September 19, 2012<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president Election 2012: New Hampshire President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
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| | |North Carolina | | |North Carolina |
| − | |Leaning Republican win due to [[same-sex marriage]] issue. | + | |Likely Romney, due to Obama's support of [[same-sex marriage]]. |
| | |0.3% | | |0.3% |
| | |The current [[Democratic]] governor, [[Bev Perdue]], is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. Rasmussen's poll on September 14, 2012 had Romney at 51% to Obama's 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president Election 2012: North Carolina President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | | |The current [[Democratic]] governor, [[Bev Perdue]], is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. Rasmussen's poll on September 14, 2012 had Romney at 51% to Obama's 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president Election 2012: North Carolina President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
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| | |Nevada | | |Nevada |
| − | |Leaning Democrat. | + | |Leaning to Obama. |
| | |12.5% | | |12.5% |
| | |A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for [[Republican]] [[Mark Amodei]]. [[Harry Reid]] won reelection in 2010 despite [[Tea Party]] opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. As of September 20, 2012, Obama leads Romney 47% to 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/nevada/election_2012_nevada_president Election 2012: Nevada President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | | |A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for [[Republican]] [[Mark Amodei]]. [[Harry Reid]] won reelection in 2010 despite [[Tea Party]] opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. As of September 20, 2012, Obama leads Romney 47% to 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/nevada/election_2012_nevada_president Election 2012: Nevada President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
| | |6 | | |6 |
| | + | |- |
| | + | |Wisconsin |
| | + | |13.9% |
| | + | |Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their [[labor union]] allies, they failed to recall enough republican legislators for a majority, failed to defeat Justice David Prosser in the Supreme Court election. The final blow that put Wisconsin in play for the 2012 election was when Governor Scott Walker defeated his recall election by a wider margin than he was originally elected in 2010. The selection of Wisconsin Congressman [[Paul Ryan]] as Romney's running mate may also help him in Wisconsin and vie-presidential nominees tend to boost the ticket in their home state. While Romney did receive a bump after his choice of Ryan, as of September 2012, he was slightly trailing Obama, 46% to 49%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president Election 2012: Wisconsin President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
| | + | |10 |
| | |} | | |} |
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| | |Obama's has had high disapproval ratings here: 54%, and [[Republicans]] swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against [[Hillary Clinton]].<ref>[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1653 Quinnipiac poll done late September 2011]</ref> As of September 21, 2012, Obama leads Romney by a 51% to 39% margin.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president Election 2012: Pennsylvania President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | | |Obama's has had high disapproval ratings here: 54%, and [[Republicans]] swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against [[Hillary Clinton]].<ref>[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1653 Quinnipiac poll done late September 2011]</ref> As of September 21, 2012, Obama leads Romney by a 51% to 39% margin.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president Election 2012: Pennsylvania President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
| | |20 | | |20 |
| − | |-
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| − | |Wisconsin
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| − | |13.9%
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| − | |Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their [[labor union]] allies, they failed to recall enough republican legislators for a majority, failed to defeat Justice David Prosser in the Supreme Court election. The final blow that put Wisconsin in play for the 2012 election was when Governor Scott Walker defeated his recall election by a wider margin than he was originally elected in 2010. The selection of Wisconsin Congressman [[Paul Ryan]] as Romney's running mate may also help him in Wisconsin and vie-presidential nominees tend to boost the ticket in their home state. While Romney did receive a bump after his choice of Ryan, as of September 2012, he was slightly trailing Obama, 46% to 49%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president Election 2012: Wisconsin President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |10
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| | |} | | |} |
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