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Essay:Howard Stern voting effect (view source)
Revision as of 04:20, April 14, 2007
, 04:20, April 14, 2007New page: In June of 2004, Howard Stern said the following: :''"John Kerry will receive more votes because of this. ... My audience will vote in a bloc."'' :''"We're also in a lot of key state...
In June of 2004, [[Howard Stern]] said the following:
:''"John Kerry will receive more votes because of this. ... My audience will vote in a bloc."''
:''"We're also in a lot of key states. ... If we can affect that state that's big news."''
The mainstream media claimed that Stern controlled a large percentage of votes, and that his listeners would generally do what he said. This article measures the "Howard Stern voting effect" on the 2004 presidential election in some of his biggest markets.
=="Blue" states where Stern could be heard:==
'''New York'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,403,374
Bush 2004 Votes: 2,780,749
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 377,375 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: -24.98%
Bush 2004 Margin: -17.27%
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 7.71%
'''Pennsylvania'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,281,127
Bush 2004 Votes: 2,725,750
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 444,623 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: -4.17%
Bush 2004 Margin: -2.4%
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 1.77%
'''California'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 4,567,429
Bush 2004 Votes: 4,406,033
Stern '''Lost''' Bush: 161,396 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: -11.28%
Bush 2004 Margin: -10.28%
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 1%
'''Massachusetts'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 878,502
Bush 2004 Votes: 1,055,121
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 176,619 Votes (in '''Kerry's Home State''')
'''Overall:'''
Bush 2000 Margin: -27.3%
Bush 2004 Margin: -25.2%
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 2.1%
==Hotly contested states==
'''Ohio'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,351,209
Bush 2004 Votes: 2,783,655
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 432,446 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: 3.51%
Bush 2004 Margin: 2.39%
Stern '''Cost''' Bush: 1.12%
'''Florida'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,912,790
Bush 2004 Votes: 3,812,485
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 899,695 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: .01%
Bush 2004 Margin: 5.03%
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 5.02%
'''Totals'''
Bush 2000 Votes in Reviewed States: 15,394,431
Bush 2004 Votes in Reviewed States: 17,563,793
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 2,169,362 Votes
'''Overall:'''
Bush 2000 Margin in Reviewed States: -6.79% (15,394,431 of 34,564,438 total votes)
Bush 2004 Margin in Reviewed States: -1.09% (17,563,793 of 37,688,556 total votes (prelim))
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 5.7%
==Source==
* [http://uselectionatlas.org/ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections]
:''"John Kerry will receive more votes because of this. ... My audience will vote in a bloc."''
:''"We're also in a lot of key states. ... If we can affect that state that's big news."''
The mainstream media claimed that Stern controlled a large percentage of votes, and that his listeners would generally do what he said. This article measures the "Howard Stern voting effect" on the 2004 presidential election in some of his biggest markets.
=="Blue" states where Stern could be heard:==
'''New York'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,403,374
Bush 2004 Votes: 2,780,749
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 377,375 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: -24.98%
Bush 2004 Margin: -17.27%
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 7.71%
'''Pennsylvania'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,281,127
Bush 2004 Votes: 2,725,750
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 444,623 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: -4.17%
Bush 2004 Margin: -2.4%
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 1.77%
'''California'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 4,567,429
Bush 2004 Votes: 4,406,033
Stern '''Lost''' Bush: 161,396 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: -11.28%
Bush 2004 Margin: -10.28%
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 1%
'''Massachusetts'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 878,502
Bush 2004 Votes: 1,055,121
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 176,619 Votes (in '''Kerry's Home State''')
'''Overall:'''
Bush 2000 Margin: -27.3%
Bush 2004 Margin: -25.2%
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 2.1%
==Hotly contested states==
'''Ohio'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,351,209
Bush 2004 Votes: 2,783,655
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 432,446 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: 3.51%
Bush 2004 Margin: 2.39%
Stern '''Cost''' Bush: 1.12%
'''Florida'''
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,912,790
Bush 2004 Votes: 3,812,485
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 899,695 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: .01%
Bush 2004 Margin: 5.03%
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 5.02%
'''Totals'''
Bush 2000 Votes in Reviewed States: 15,394,431
Bush 2004 Votes in Reviewed States: 17,563,793
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 2,169,362 Votes
'''Overall:'''
Bush 2000 Margin in Reviewed States: -6.79% (15,394,431 of 34,564,438 total votes)
Bush 2004 Margin in Reviewed States: -1.09% (17,563,793 of 37,688,556 total votes (prelim))
Stern '''Gained''' Bush: 5.7%
==Source==
* [http://uselectionatlas.org/ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections]