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== Historical examples ==

== Historical examples ==

The example often cited by Republicans for a third-party candidate "spoiling" the chances of a Republican to win the presidency was Ross Perot's candidacy in 1992.  But an analysis of the polling data and Republican George H.W. Bush's approval rating (an unelectable 33%) demonstrates that the Ross Perot candidacy did not spoil Bush's chances of winning, and actually helped narrow the gap between him and Clinton.<ref>http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/01/14/824800/-History-Perot-was-NOT-a-Spoiler-in-1992-or-1996#</ref>  More people who had voted for Ross Perot in 1992 drifted to Clinton in 1996, rather than to the Republican [[Bob Dole]], which reinforces the view that Ross Perot pulled as many voters away from Clinton in 1992 than from George H.W. Bush.

The example often cited by Republicans for a third-party candidate "spoiling" the chances of a Republican to win the presidency was Ross Perot's candidacy in 1992.  But an analysis of the polling data and Republican George H.W. Bush's approval rating (an unelectable 33%) demonstrates that the Ross Perot candidacy did not spoil Bush's chances of winning, and actually helped narrow the gap between him and Clinton.<ref>http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/01/14/824800/-History-Perot-was-NOT-a-Spoiler-in-1992-or-1996#</ref>  More people who had voted for Ross Perot in 1992 drifted to Clinton in 1996, rather than to the Republican [[Bob Dole]], which reinforces the view that Ross Perot pulled at least as many voters away from Clinton in 1992 as from George H.W. Bush.

In 1996, Clinton won a slim majority of the overall votes, which tends to disprove the notion that Ross Perot was a spoiler in that race.  The Republican nominee, Bob Dole, was a weak candidate from the moderate side of the party who had no chance of winning.  Clinton's approval rating was well above 50%, which virtually guarantees an incumbent reelection.

In 1996, Clinton won a slim majority of the overall votes, which tends to disprove the notion that Ross Perot was a spoiler in that race.  The Republican nominee, Bob Dole, was a weak candidate from the moderate side of the party who had no chance of winning.  Clinton's approval rating was well above 50%, which virtually guarantees an incumbent reelection.