Changes

===Europe slides into war (1912-1914)===

===Europe slides into war (1912-1914)===

Once the idea that war with Britain was inevitable became conventional wisdom, the Kaiser's reluctance began to look quaint, even to his own advisors.<ref>Röhl, p. 875. A few weeks after Agadir, Falkenhayen wrote, "Outwardly, our political situation has improved...but internally nothing has changed, in so far as H.M. is as determined as before to avoid a war."</ref> In response to the increasing militarism of the conservative parties, many voters switched to the anti-militarist Social Democratic Party. In the Reichstag election in January 1912, the party went from 43 seats to 110 (out of a total of 397). This election also gave the left-of-center parties a majority in the parliament.<ref>This refers to the combined total of the Social Democrats, Zentrum, and Progressives. The Zentrum, or Center Party, is the precursor of Germany's post-World War II conservative movement.</ref>

Once the idea that war with Britain was inevitable became conventional wisdom, the Kaiser's reluctance began to look quaint, even to his own advisors.<ref>Even Falkenhayen, a moderate among military officers (at least compared to Ludendorff), saw the Kaiser as an obstacle. A few weeks after Agadir, he wrote, "Outwardly, our political situation has improved...but internally nothing has changed, in so far as H.M. is as determined as before to avoid a war." Röhl, p. 875.</ref> In response to the increasing militarism of the right-wing parties, many voters switched to the anti-militarist Social Democratic Party. In the Reichstag election in January 1912, the number of seats held by the Social Democrats more than doubled.<ref>In the 1912 election, the Social Democratic Party went from 43 seats to 110 seats (out of a total of 397).</ref> This election also gave the left-of-center parties a majority in parliament.<ref>That is to say, the Social Democrats (110), Zentrum (91), and the Progressive People's Party (42) together held a majority of the seats in the Reichstag. The Zentrum, or Center Party, is the precursor of the Christian Democratic Union, Germany's post-World War II conservative movement. The PPP is the precursor of the modern Free Democrats.</ref>

In November 1912, Wilhelm approved a proposal to support Austria-Hungary against Serbia even if this led to war with both France and Russia. This proposal was presented to the Kaiser jointly by Bethmann Hollweg, the chancellor; Moltke, the army chief of staff; and Kiderlen, the foreign secretary. These advisors had misled the Kaiser into believing that the British might support an Austro-Hungarian attack on Serbia. In December, the German ambassador to Britain informed the Kaiser that Britain would likely side with France in the event of such a war. The Kaiser responded by ordering a "postponement of the great fight" until the summer of 1914 so that additional preparations could be made.<ref name=rohl18 />

In November 1912, Wilhelm approved a proposal to support Austria-Hungary against Serbia even if this led to war with both France and Russia. This proposal was presented to the Kaiser jointly by Bethmann Hollweg, the chancellor; Moltke, the army chief of staff; and Kiderlen, the foreign secretary. These advisors had misled the Kaiser into believing that the British might support an Austro-Hungarian attack on Serbia. In December, the German ambassador to Britain informed the Kaiser that Britain would likely side with France in the event of such a war. The Kaiser responded by ordering a "postponement of the great fight" until the summer of 1914 so that additional preparations could be made.<ref name=rohl18 />

A meeting of the German Imperial War Council on December 8, 1912 was identified by German historian Fritz Fischer as the decisive moment when the imperial government resolved upon war.<ref name=rohl18 /> The meeting consisted of the Kaiser and four advisors.<ref name=stemple /> In June 1913, the Reichstag approved a dramatic expansion of the army.<ref>The German army was expanded from 544,000 soldiers to 870,000. It was the largest expansion since 1871.</ref> In December, the Reichstag took a brief, futile stand against the onrush of militarism in an episode called the Zabern Affair.<ref>There was public outrage in response to abuses by a military officer in the Alsacian town of Zabern. On December 4, 1913, the Reichstag voted no confidence in Bethmann by a margin of 293 to 54. Under the German constitution, the emperor had exclusive authority over appointments. But if the budget had been rejected, Bethmann might have been forced out of office. In the end, only the Social Democrats (110 seats) and the Polish Party (18 seats) voted against the budget. Germany had failed to take advantage of its best chance to achieve parliamentary democracy and head off war.</ref> However, army expansion was confirmed when the annual budget was passed on December 9.

A meeting of the German Imperial War Council on December 8, 1912 was identified by German historian Fritz Fischer as the moment when the imperial government resolved upon war.<ref name=rohl18 /> The meeting consisted of the Kaiser and four advisors.<ref name=stemple /> In June 1913, the Reichstag approved a dramatic expansion of the army.<ref>The German army was expanded from 544,000 soldiers to 870,000. It was the largest expansion since 1871.</ref> In December, the Reichstag took a brief, futile stand against the onrush of militarism in an episode called the Zabern Affair.<ref>There was public outrage in response to abuses by a military officer in the Alsacian town of Zabern. On December 4, 1913, the Reichstag voted no confidence in Bethmann by a margin of 293 to 54. Under the German constitution, the emperor had exclusive authority over appointments. But if the budget had been rejected, Bethmann might have been forced out of office. In the end, only the Social Democrats (110 seats) and the Polish Party (18 seats) voted against the budget. Germany had failed to take advantage of its best chance to achieve parliamentary democracy and head off war.</ref> However, army expansion was confirmed when the annual budget was passed on December 9.

The murder of Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand triggered a final diplomatic crisis in July 1914. When he realized that the British intended to side with the French after all, Wilhelm attempted to reverse course. His last minute change of heart proved to be too little, too late.<ref name=rohl18 />

The murder of Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand triggered a final diplomatic crisis in July 1914. When he realized that the British intended to side with the French after all, Wilhelm attempted to reverse course. His last minute change of heart proved to be too little, too late.<ref name=rohl18 />