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Talk:Main Page/Archive index/188 (view source)
Revision as of 09:23, March 6, 2020
, 09:23, March 6, 2020+ poll discussion
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=== My gut instinct was correct: Bernie is probably going to win the Democratic primary ===
The Trump impeachment effort appeared to have backfired and merely increased Trump's fundraising and damaged Biden as it highlighted the corruptness of Joe Biden and Hunter Biden.
I knew that the unlikeable ex-prosecutor Kamala Harris was dead on arrival.
And now Bernie is surging. And given the leftward breeze of the Democrats, I wouldn't be surprised if Bernie won. I thought early on in the process that Bernie would probably win. The 2007/2008 financial crisis and its aftereffects is fueling populism. And Bernie is a leftist populist.
If Bernie keeps rising in support, the big question is whether or not Obama is going to step in and try to sabotage Bernie Sanders. Obama indicated he will step in and try to thwart Sanders if he feels Sanders has a decent chance to win the Democrat primary.[[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 20:53, 31 January 2020 (EST)
:Looking like Bernie right now; the DNC establishment is betting the farm on Bloomberg to stop him. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 02:48, 3 February 2020 (EST)
::Bernie is getting a bit too big for his boots in the Democrat Party. Hypocrites like Obama, Bloomberg and the DNC itself will surely try to shut him down, since they have profited from capitalism despite denouncing it previously. Let's face it, nobody in the Establishment likes him. Our growing economy has made it obvious that Bernie's socialism will get him nowhere in the general, and nowhere in the future. --[[User:LawfulLibertarian|LawfulLibertarian]] ([[User talk:LawfulLibertarian|talk]]) 23:22, 8 February 2020 (EST)
:::IMO, the fact Sanders canceled his Democratic party registration after his 2016 loss and re-registered last year is all you need to know about what's going on. Sanders is no friend of Democrats, has always opposed it, and has since time immemorial sought to destroy it. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 16:55, 12 February 2020 (EST)
::::It's not Klobuchar, but Bloomberg who is now reaching dizzying new heights. For a brief few minutes Bloomberg had reached Bernie's level in the polls, even if the shock of it caused Bernie to bounce back up again and Bloomberg to bounce down. I don't know if Conservative's prediction is safe anymore. [[User:VargasMilan|VargasMilan]] ([[User talk:VargasMilan|talk]]) Saturday, 03:16, 15 February 2020 (EST)
::::In the last ''four hours'', the gap has doubled to six percentage points between Bloomberg and Bernie. Wow. [[User:VargasMilan|VargasMilan]] ([[User talk:VargasMilan|talk]]) Saturday, 08:35, 15 February 2020 (EST)
::::Everybody is rushing to the camp where Biden wins South Carolina too, even though RobS predicted it would be a two-man race by then: Bernie and Bloomberg. [[User:VargasMilan|VargasMilan]] ([[User talk:VargasMilan|talk]]) Saturday, 12:23, 15 February 2020 (EST)
:::::Amazing what $60 billion can buy? Commie libs looking to a racist sexist RINO to save them from a racist sexist RINO after the racist sexist RINO corrupted and destroyed democracy in the Democrat party. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 13:53, 15 February 2020 (EST)
:::I placed an embarrassing amount of money that Biden would ''not'' be one of the two competitors in South Carolina. Thankfully, I starting getting vivid pictures of alternative scenerios and reduced it to 80 bucks. All the losings goes to the University, but Biden is already 12 points ahead with Bloomberg on record having NO chance of winning. So how about a better prediction for the nomination? I don't want them to name a fountain after me. [[User:VargasMilan|VargasMilan]] ([[User talk:VargasMilan|talk]]) Saturday, 20:45, 15 February 2020 (EST)
::::We have to see how Blacks vote in South Carolina March 3; ''will they get on the Bernie bus? the Klobuchar bubble? or forgive Bloomberg's fascist tendencies? Maybe they will revive Biden's corpse or bend over for Bootyboy, two unlikely scenarios. Or even reward Warren for hijacking affirmative action programs to propel herself and her career.'' Whatever, the alleged "winner" will have a plurality. Nobody has momentum. Some people will pay attention to the delegate count, but the likelihood of rigging the Superdelegate scenario becomes more realistic. Pay attention to what Tulsi says about [[Tom Perez]] between now and the convention (whether she stays in or drops out). [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 21:27, 15 February 2020 (EST)
::::Another factor working against a clear Democrat frontrunner is the DNC's abandonment of "winner-take-all" in favor of "proportional representation". This change was made largely for cosmetic purposes (after the 2020 Florida recount and hardened by the 2016 popular vote win and anti-electoral college movement). The Superdelegate trump-card held by DNC insiders can nullify proportional representation in a heartbeat in coming months. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 22:24, 15 February 2020 (EST)
=== My gut instinct was wrong. Bernie Sanders may be "cheated" out of the Democratic nomination ===
I watched a few minutes of the 2020 Democratic debate in Nevada. Bernie Sanders is the only candidate who thinks the nominee with the most delegates should win the primary contest. All the others want the process (which includes the super delegates) to work out. The super delegates voting in the second round could decide who wins the primary and they may go with the more moderate candidate and/or the one with more money. In short, Bloomberg.
The [http://www.immelman.us/hillary-clinton/projecting-the-winner-of-the-2016-presidential-election-the-personal-electability-index/ PERSONAL ELECTABILITY INDEX] model, which has predicted every election since 1996, predicts the more outgoing, confident and alpha/dominant a candidate is, the higher the likelihood they will be elected. This points to Sanders or Bloomberg winning the Democratic primary and not Amy Klobucher or Pete Buttigieg winning the Democratic primary.
Anyway you slice it, a sizable portion of the Democrats may not be happy with the result. There will not be a civil war in the party due to the external threat of Trumpism, but there may be people sitting out who didn't get their way.
It looks like Trumpslide 2020 since the GOP has more party unity and Trump has more [[machismo]]! Olé! Olé! Olé![[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 00:45, 20 February 2020 (EST)
:Predicting who the Democrats pick is hard. Bloomberg is not a good cultural fit with the Democrats given his: comments about his stop and frisk policies; his misogyny; his elitist comments about farmers and his arrogance/complacency. He seems out of step with today's populism. On the other hand, many believe Bernie Sanders is unelectable because he is a Democratic socialist with a communist sympathizer past and the Democrats want to someone who is electable.
:And it seems like the other Democrat contenders don't have the fundraising ability of Sanders/Bloomberg so they will be blown out of the water by Trump's enthusiastic supporters and sizable campaign chest. Trump will have a good get out the vote operation and money for web/TV/etc. promotion. On top of this, the economy is good and Trump got many good things accomplished.
:After all is said and done, the Democrats are in a very tough situation that they probably cannot overcome when it comes to the 2020 presidential race.[[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 02:13, 20 February 2020 (EST)
::The Democratic party is not now, nor has it ever been, 'democratic'. I came to this realization in 1975 after the resignation of Richard Nixon and toyed with the idea of leaving the GOP. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 08:30, 21 February 2020 (EST)
== Roberts won't read Ciaramella question ==
== Roberts won't read Ciaramella question ==