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Essay:Analyses of misleading polls (view source)
Revision as of 18:59, October 21, 2020
, 18:59, October 21, 2020→Calculations: finished up calculation
|87%
|87%
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To calculate based on 2016 exit poll numbers:
<pre style="width:25em">
McSally: (32% × 88%) + (28% × 3%) + (40% × 40%) = 45%
Kelly: (32% × 7%) + (28% × 96%) + (40% × 47%) = 47.92%
</pre>
As shown here, when the polling sample by party affiliation is weighed by the exit poll, Kelly's lead falls significantly from eleven points to three.
=August 23, 2020=
=August 23, 2020=