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United States Senate elections, 2020 (view source)
Revision as of 19:07, October 22, 2020
, 19:07, October 22, 2020copyedit - spacing
|Cunningham ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|Cunningham ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>2.3%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>2.3%
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9">Tossup</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9"> Tossup </span></center>
|Aggregate skewed slightly to the left due to an untrustworthy poll by the biased Change Research.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_cunningham-6908.html North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham]</ref>
|Aggregate skewed slightly to the left due to an untrustworthy poll by the biased Change Research.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_cunningham-6908.html North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham]</ref>
|-
|-
|Peters ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|Peters ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>5.2%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>5.2%
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9">Tossup</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9"> Tossup </span></center>
|Aggregate likely skewed to the left due to suspicious Ipsos/[[Reuters]] poll in addition to one by Change Research.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mi/michigan_senate_james_vs_peters-6964.html Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters]</ref>
|Aggregate likely skewed to the left due to suspicious Ipsos/[[Reuters]] poll in addition to one by Change Research.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mi/michigan_senate_james_vs_peters-6964.html Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters]</ref>
|-
|-
|Greenfield ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|Greenfield ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>1.8%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>1.8%
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9">Tossup</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9"> Tossup </span></center>
|Aggregate skewed to the left, largely due poll from highly untrustworthy source Quinnipiac;<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_greenfield-7072.html Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Greenfield]</ref> [[Iowa]] polling tends to overestimate Democrats, as occurred in the [[2018 Midterms]] with the state's gubernatorial election.
|Aggregate skewed to the left, largely due poll from highly untrustworthy source Quinnipiac;<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_greenfield-7072.html Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Greenfield]</ref> [[Iowa]] polling tends to overestimate Democrats, as occurred in the [[2018 Midterms]] with the state's gubernatorial election.
|-
|-
|Kelly ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|Kelly ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>7.8%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>7.8%
|<center><span style="background:#ccccff">Lean D</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#ccccff"> Lean D </span></center>
|Aggregate strongly skewed to the left due to unreliable/fake polling,<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly]</ref> including one by [[CBS]]/YouGov analyzed [[Essay:Analyses_of_misleading_polls#October_21.2C_2020|here]].
|Aggregate strongly skewed to the left due to unreliable/fake polling,<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly]</ref> including one by [[CBS]]/YouGov analyzed [[Essay:Analyses_of_misleading_polls#October_21.2C_2020|here]].
|-
|-
|Perdue ([[Republican|<font color="red">'''R'''</font>]])
|Perdue ([[Republican|<font color="red">'''R'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>0.9%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>0.9%
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9">Tossup</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9"> Tossup </span></center>
|Aggregate likely skewed to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ga/georgia_senate_perdue_vs_ossoff-7067.html Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff]</ref>
|Aggregate likely skewed to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ga/georgia_senate_perdue_vs_ossoff-7067.html Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff]</ref>
|-
|-
|Warnock ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|Warnock ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>10.6%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>10.6%
|<center><span style="background:#ffb3b3">Lean R</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#ffb3b3"> Lean R </span></center>
|Warnock lead<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ga/georgia_senate_special_election_open_primary-7069.html Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary]</ref> largely due to backing by Democrat establishment and evaporating support for Lieberman; note election to be a jungle primary ([[United_States_Senate_elections,_2020#Georgia_.28special.29|see below]]).
|Warnock lead<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ga/georgia_senate_special_election_open_primary-7069.html Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary]</ref> largely due to backing by Democrat establishment and evaporating support for Lieberman; note election to be a jungle primary ([[United_States_Senate_elections,_2020#Georgia_.28special.29|see below]]).
|-
|-
|Gideon ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|Gideon ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>4.2%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>4.2%
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9">Tossup</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9"> Tossup </span></center>
|Polling aggregate likely skewed to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/me/maine_senate_collins_vs_gideon-6928.html Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon]</ref>
|Polling aggregate likely skewed to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/me/maine_senate_collins_vs_gideon-6928.html Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon]</ref>
|-
|-
|Smith ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|Smith ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>5.8%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>5.8%
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9">Tossup</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9"> Tossup </span></center>
|Polling aggregate likely skewed to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mn/minnesota_senate_lewis_vs_smith-7075.html Minnesota Senate - Lewis vs. Smith]</ref>
|Polling aggregate likely skewed to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mn/minnesota_senate_lewis_vs_smith-7075.html Minnesota Senate - Lewis vs. Smith]</ref>
|-
|-
|Daines ([[Republican|<font color="red">'''R'''</font>]])
|Daines ([[Republican|<font color="red">'''R'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>2.8%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>2.8%
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9">Tossup</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#d9d9d9"> Tossup </span></center>
|Aggregate likely skewed to the left due to PPP poll.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mt/montana_senate_daines_vs_bullock-7063.html Montana Senate - Daines vs. Bullock]</ref>
|Aggregate likely skewed to the left due to PPP poll.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mt/montana_senate_daines_vs_bullock-7063.html Montana Senate - Daines vs. Bullock]</ref>
|-
|-
|Cornyn ([[Republican|<font color="red">'''R'''</font>]])
|Cornyn ([[Republican|<font color="red">'''R'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>8.3%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>8.3%
|<center><span style="background:#ffb3b3">Lean R</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#ffb3b3"> Lean R </span></center>
|Aggregate likely skewed somewhat to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/tx/texas_senate_cornyn_vs_hegar-7047.html Texas Senate - Cornyn vs. Hegar]</ref>
|Aggregate likely skewed somewhat to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/tx/texas_senate_cornyn_vs_hegar-7047.html Texas Senate - Cornyn vs. Hegar]</ref>
|-
|-
|Luján ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|Luján ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>9.5%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>9.5%
|<center><span style="background:#ccccff">Lean D</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#ccccff"> Lean D </span></center>
|Aggregate likely skewed somewhat to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/nm/new_mexico_senate_ronchetti_vs_lujan-7079.html New Mexico Senate - Ronchetti vs. Lujan]</ref>
|Aggregate likely skewed somewhat to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/nm/new_mexico_senate_ronchetti_vs_lujan-7079.html New Mexico Senate - Ronchetti vs. Lujan]</ref>
|-
|-
|Warner ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|Warner ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>15.7%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>15.7%
|<center><span style="background:#9999ff">Likely D</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#9999ff"> Likely D </span></center>
|Aggregate likely skewed to the left;<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/va/virginia_senate_gade_vs_warner-7086.html Virginia Senate - Gade vs. Warner]</ref> [[Virginia]] polling has underestimated [[Republicans]] before, especially with the 2014 Senate election where Gillespie came surprisingly close to unseating Sen. Warner then.
|Aggregate likely skewed to the left;<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/va/virginia_senate_gade_vs_warner-7086.html Virginia Senate - Gade vs. Warner]</ref> [[Virginia]] polling has underestimated [[Republicans]] before, especially with the 2014 Senate election where Gillespie came surprisingly close to unseating Sen. Warner then.
|-
|-
|Shaheen ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|Shaheen ([[Democrat|<font color="blue">'''D'''</font>]])
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>15.6%
|<nowiki>+</nowiki>15.6%
|<center><span style="background:#ccccff">Lean D</span></center>
|<center><span style="background:#ccccff"> Lean D </span></center>
|Aggregate likely skewed somewhat to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_messner_vs_shaheen-7230.html New Hampshire Senate - Messner vs. Shaheen]</ref>
|Aggregate likely skewed somewhat to the left.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_messner_vs_shaheen-7230.html New Hampshire Senate - Messner vs. Shaheen]</ref>
|}
|}